Chiefs vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - November 27, 2025

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Points and turkey

Original play was meant to be 1.5u

Everyone in the world will probably be on this play, but I’m having a hard time seeing anything other than a shootout in this matchup. Both offenses rank inside the top five in EPA/play, while both defenses will struggle in this particular matchup. Let’s get into it. There aren’t many offenses I’d take over the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. In this split, they might be the best offense in the league. Dallas is averaging 33.0 points per game at home compared to just 25.8 on the road. They just put up 21 points on the Eagles’ elite defense and easily could’ve had more. If it weren’t for bad turnovers, this team might’ve been in the 30s. This was against the same defense that just held the Packers and Lions to a combined 16 points. Those teams average 23.9 and 29.6 points per game respectively. Essentially, it was a very impressive outing by the Cowboys offense. The Chiefs defense is good, but they’re much less efficient on the road. Kansas City has allowed 37.0 yards per drive away from home (29th) compared to just 24.6 at Arrowhead (3rd). They’re 15th in EPA/play, 19th in success rate, and particularly weak against the run, ranking 21st in EPA/rush. One of the biggest reasons Dallas has been so good offensively is that they finally have a real rushing attack with Javonte Williams. Last season they were one dimensional and were always stuck in obvious passing situations. This year defenses have to honor both the run and the pass. That’s a major reason why Dallas is running play action at the 6th highest rate in the league. That’s a concern for Kansas City, as their defense is allowing 10.5 yards per attempt on play action passes, second to worst in the league. The Chiefs are also giving up the 24th most yards after catch per reception, which is not what you want against this Cowboys passing attack. Dallas also plays at the 5th fastest tempo in the NFL. They want games turning into shootouts. Meanwhile, while the Cowboys defense has improved, they really haven’t been tested. I didn’t mind trusting this unit last week against the Eagles because that offense is completely dead. However, the Chiefs offense remains elite, despite what many think. They’re second in EPA/play, 4th in success rate, and 5th in offensive DVOA. The results haven’t fully shown because they rank just 14th in red zone scoring, but I don’t think they’ll have trouble finishing drives against Dallas considering the Cowboys rank 30th in opponent red zone touchdown percentage. They are allowing TDs on 69.05% of trips to the red zone. Since the new Dallas defensive additions and players returning from injury, they’ve seen the Raiders and Eagles offenses. These two units are not exactly scary. The Kansas City offense will also welcome back Isaiah Pacheco, who adds real juice to their run and passing game. The Chiefs are averaging 2.64 points per drive (2nd) and a league high 39.5 yards per possession. The Dallas defense is 30th in EPA/play, and only 38.9% of their defensive series even reach third down. This is the lowest rate in the league. Their defense is constantly on the field. Most importantly, the Cowboys play zone coverage at the 4th highest rate in football. That’s a nightmare setup against Patrick Mahomes, who ranks 2nd in the league against zone coverage but just 24th against man coverage. Neither defense looks in for a good day. Dallas home games are averaging 62.4 combined points. Oddsmakers can adjust all they want, but I still don’t think this total is high enough. Our model makes the fair total 57.4, giving us plenty of value at the current number. As long as we avoid red zone turnovers, I think we get a Thanksgiving shootout.

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Obviously, Patrick Mahomes will be the one throwing it to Rice. The Cowboys have allowed 24 passing touchdowns, the most of any team. That includes 7-of-11 games (64%) with at least two passing TDs, and nearly half their games, 5-of-11, have seen three or more scores, including four by Caleb Williams and Bo Nix. Mahomes has only four games all season with more than one passing touchdown, but he weirdly has no games with exactly two, skipping straight ahead to games with three, three, three and four. When it's clicking, the eating is good, so let's hope Mahomes is hungry on Thanksgiving and play three passing touchdowns at +154 (FanDuel). Both Rice and Mahomes are seeing pretty juiced prices here because books know we want to fade the Cowboys and bet overs on Thanksgiving, so don't go too crazy on either of these.

3s disappearing, grab while you can. Already played hot read so just adding for notification and analysis: I already backed Chiefs -3.5 on the Lookahead before the weekend's games — those contests went exactly as I expected, so I'm more than happy to run back Kansas City again here at the key number. Dallas upset Philadelphia after a 21-point comeback, and that's what's buying us some value, but the Chiefs may have been even more impressive. They absolutely dominated a Colts team that's been better all season than the Eagles, nearly doubling up Indy in yardage 494 to 255, running 91 plays to just 50 for the Colts, and more than tripling them in first downs 33 to 10. That was Kansas City's best performance of the season when it mattered most, and it was an especially outstanding defensive effort holding the Colts to just 20 points on 11 drives, even including a touchdown from inside the five, a far cry from Indy's 3.2 points per drive on the season. The Chiefs lost the turnover battle 2-0 and were an ugly 1-of-6 in the red zone, but Kansas City won anyway — and deserved it. The Chiefs offense still doesn't feel great, but they've been better both running and passing than Dallas. Kansas City's offense is not explosive, to a maddening degree. It feels like the Chiefs eschew home run swings and just hit single, single, single, over and over again. It's not pretty, but it gets the job done. Kansas City sits top five in Success Rate on the season, while the Cowboys defense ranks 31st. The Chiefs should be able to move the chains and control this game. They might add some big plays, too — Kansas City does rank top seven in EPA per play passing it deep, where the Cowboys rank 31st. Now, it's true that Dallas's defense is improving, but don't mistake improvement for great. Nearly anything would be an improvement from what Dallas looked like early in the season, but it's hard to take a ton away from games against the terrible Raiders and an inconsistent Eagles offense that started the game with three straight touchdowns on this D. Kansas City's defense is trending up, right on time late in the season like usual with Steve Spagnuolo. As dangerous as George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb have been, the Chiefs have only allowed three TDs to opposing receivers since the Brazil opener. Dallas has been lethal against single-high defenses, but Spags' unit plays a lot more two-high. The Chiefs have the edge both ways in this matchup, and it's a time-honored tradition to fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Since 2011, Dallas is an ugly 3-11 ATS on Turkey Day, covering just 21% of the time by -8.3 points. Meanwhile, non-Dallas favorites are 31-11 ATS (74%) the past two decades, and they're even better as public favorites as the Chiefs will be at 24-6 ATS, covering 80% of the time by 8.0 PPG. Those numbers would suggest a double-digit win for the Chiefs. We just need them to cover the key number. Give me Chiefs -3.

Having nothing on this game would’ve been unamerican. Happy Thanksgiving. 🦃

*Best bet from video*

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WEEK 13 LOOKAHEAD  It's a time-honored tradition to bet against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, so let's start the holidays early. Since 2011, the Cowboys are an ugly 3–11 ATS on Thanksgiving, covering just 21% of the time. Thanksgiving has typically been a great trends spot and it's usually good to back the favorites - as long as it's not the Cowboys. All other favorites are 31–11 ATS (74%), and public favorites are even better at 79%. You can bet this will be a public spot for the Chiefs, either coming off a confidence-restoring win over the Colts or with their backs against the wall at 5–6. The Chiefs are 5–5 but would be 10–0 if you flipped their results in one-score games, and all their wins are by 13+ points. Kansas City's offense is better than Dallas's, and the defense is way better. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid just don't lose games like this in a big holiday national TV spot against a beatable opponent. It may feel odd grabbing Chiefs -3.5 (FanDuel) since Kansas City could lose to the Colts and the Cowboys could beat the Eagles, but would we really get that number under a field goal on Thanksgiving? Books would bleed Chiefs money, and I don't think they want it. The Chiefs are already -4 or -4.5 at some books, so grab Chiefs -3.5 while it's there

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