49ers vs Steelers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1

49ers vs Steelers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1 article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey (left) and Kenny Pickett (right).

49ers vs Steelers Odds

Sunday, Sept. 10
1 p.m. ET
49ers Odds
-110o / -110u
Steelers Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

49ers vs. Steelers odds have San Francisco installed as a slight road favorite in Week 1.

The 49ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL top-to-bottom but have a major question mark at the most important position on the field, quarterback. Meanwhile, there is a lot of optimism around Kenny Pickett, but he has a tough road ahead with the Steelers in a loaded AFC.

Let's break down the matchup and make our 49ers vs. Steelers pick.

49ers vs. Steelers

Matchup Analysis

The 49ers are coming off of a season where they went to the NFC Championship Game but then had to play the second half with basically no quarterback.

San Francisco went into this preseason with three options at QB after Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract expired. The names? Trey Lance, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold. Lance ended up having such a disappointing offseason that he was traded, so Purdy is now the QB1 with Darnold as his backup.

Purdy proved that he could function well in Kyle Shanahan's system just like Garoppolo did for many years. If he's ever asked to do more than fit into a system, though, there are a lot of question marks around his arm talent.

Bet San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh at FanDuel

49ers -2.5

Steelers +2.5

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In this game, Purdy will have a tough test against a Steelers defense that really improved down the stretch last season. The Steelers’ defense was 20th in DVOA through Week 9 of last season. In Weeks 10-18, the Steelers’ defense was fifth in DVOA.

That defense that already contained the likes of Minkah Fitzpatrick, TJ Watt, Cam Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi reloaded this offseason. They added Patrick Peterson in the FA market and drafted three absolute studs in CB Joey Porter Jr., DE Nate Herbig and DT Keeanu Benton.

When it comes to quarterback play, I have more faith in Pickett, who has developed a great relationship with WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth. The second-year QB showed flashes last season and with a full offseason as QB1, I expect Pickett to play with more confidence and consistency.

49ers vs. Steelers

Betting Picks & Predictions

Mike Tomlin as an underdog has been one of the most consistent betting trends in the NFL over the past 15 years.

Since taking over as the Steelers head coach in 2007, Tomlin is 51-30-5 (63%) ATS as an underdog, the best mark in the NFL. Pittsburgh has covered by 5.8 points per game over that stretch, 1.9 points better than the next-best team.

It’s very rare to find Tomlin as a home underdog, but he has been even better in those spots. He is 15-4-3 ATS (79%) as a home 'dog with the Steelers. To make matters even crazier, Tomlin has a winning record straight up as a home underdog, going 13-9 (59.1%) since 2007. The Packers are the only other team in the NFL with a winning record as home underdogs over that stretch.

Tomlin in this spot is tough to pass up this early in the season. The best path here is to take the points with Pittsburgh at home.

Pick: Steelers +2.5 (Bet to +1)
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