Ravens vs Broncos Odds, Pick, Prediction: We’re Betting Baltimore in NFL Week 13
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.
Ravens vs Broncos Odds
The Broncos are a dumpster fire. Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson are both epically failing in Denver, which has a 3-8. They're also 3-8 against the spread (ATS), the second-worst mark in the NFL.
The Ravens are a fascinating team. By almost every metric, they're an elite team, and their record has them in first place in the AFC North. However, they've found incredible ways to lose football games this year. That makes it very difficult to handicap this Ravens team.
What Baltimore has done great is start games well. The Ravens have struggled to close teams out, but they've established big leads and should be able to do that again against a lifeless Broncos team.
Let's break down how to find our Ravens vs. Broncos pick for NFL Week 13 below.
Ravens vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Broncos match up statistically:
Ravens vs. Broncos DVOA Breakdown
Despite being just 7-4, the Ravens are the second-best team in the NFL according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. They're really good in all three facets of the game, with the best special teams in the league compared to Denver's last-ranked unit, according to DVOA.
Part of the reason why it is so hard to play the Ravens is that they have no real weaknesses. They have a top-10 pass offense, rush offense, pass defense and rush defense to go along with their No. 1 special teams.
Bet Denver vs. Baltimore at FanDuel
On the other side, the only thing the Broncos really do well is defend the pass. They're fourth in pass defense DVOA but 17th against the rush. That plays right into the hands of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Baltimore should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and control the clock. I think they get out to an early lead and just milk it the rest of the way.
The Ravens are averaging 12.2 points in the first half compared to the Broncos 8.7 points in the first half. Even more important, the Ravens are second in time of possession share in the first half while the Broncos are second worst in that metric. The Ravens also have the best first-half defense in the NFL, giving up only 7.5 points per first half.
The Ravens have an advantage in nearly every facet of this game. They will also be ready to take out some frustration after blowing another lead last week to the Jaguars. On the other side, the status of the Broncos locker room seems like a bad situation at the moment.
The Ravens have the best first-half defense in the NFL. They also have a statistical advantage over the Broncos in nearly every measurable category when you look at DVOA. This should be a game where you could throw a dart at a dartboard to choose how you want to fade the Broncos and you would probably win your bet.
However, I am going to be backing the Ravens on the first-half spread. The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first half. They have jumped on teams all year, but then struggled to close games out. That is why I think the first-half angle is the way to go here.
I think the Ravens score early and then control the game the rest of the way.
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