Buffalo Bills Betting Primer: Super Bowl Odds, Win Total Pick, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills Odds
If you’re new to betting, the Bills’ +2500 Super Bowl odds mean a $100 bet would net $2,500 if they won. [Convert odds using our betting odds calculator.]
A 10-6 regular season pushed the Bills to the Wild Card Round, where they suffered a tough 22-19 loss at the hands of the Houston Texans. With a strong defense leading Buffalo into 2020, it will try to dethrone the New England Patriots in the AFC East for the first time since 2008.
Our analysts take a closer look at their win total as well as key questions facing the team.
Bills Win Total
Sean Koerner, the Director of Predictive Analytics at Action, breaks down how he’s betting the Bills’ win total.
The AFC East won’t feature Tom Brady for the first time in nearly two decades, which means the door is wide open for the Bills, who have already emerged as the favorites to win the division.
The addition of Stefon Diggs should help improve Josh Allen’s deep ball accuracy, which will be vital to unlocking Allen’s potential. However, the general public is underestimating how much more difficult their schedule will be this season compared to last. In 2019, they had the fourth-easiest schedule en route to their 10-6 finish. Now I have them projected to face the eighth-toughest — a -20 year-over-year difference in their strength of schedule rank.
Outside of the AFC East, the Bills will have to face the Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Steelers, Seahawks, 49ers and Titans. It’ll be tough for them to repeat double-digit wins, which is why I bet the Under 9 (+110). However, their total has since fallen to 8.5, and I would not recommend betting it there.
Key Questions for the Bills
Stuckey, a football betting analyst and host of The Action Network podcast, runs through three key questions for the Bills heading into 2020.
1. Will Buffalo’s offensive line improve? You’d expect at least some progression after this completely rebuilt unit from last year gets all five starters back. That’s a theme for the Bills as they return plenty of production throughout the roster.
2. How much will the addition of Stefon Diggs open up the offense? Buffalo now has a bonafide one-two punch at receiver for a group that had the second-most drops in 2019.
Offensive line continuity and the addition of Diggs looks great for this offense on paper, but…
3. Can Josh Allen improve his accuracy? The Wyoming product finished last in completion percentage (58.8%) among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2019. Not great.
The Bills will need more efficiency from Allen if they want to win their first division title and/or playoff game in the past 25 years. They’re 0-5 in playoff games since 1995 with five one-possession losses in which they averaged 16.4 points per game.
The pass defense should be a rock for a third consecutive season — even against a likely much more difficult schedule of offenses. And they could get even better overall if some of the new front seven additions improve the run defense and generate more pressure. But the high expectations for Buffalo will likely come down to Allen.