Detroit Lions Betting Primer: Super Bowl Odds, Win Total Pick, More
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford.
Detroit Lions Odds
If you’re new to betting, the Lions’ +6000 Super Bowl odds mean a $100 bet would net $6,000 if they won. [Convert odds using our betting odds calculator.]
The Detroit Lions will look to turn things around this season after going 3-12-1 in 2019. Matthew Stafford returns fully healthy for 2020, and most of the Lions’ offensive weapons will be back, too. Despite trading Darius Slay to the Eagles, Detroit’s defense should be still solid after adding some key pieces following the deal, including No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah.
Sean Koerner previews the Lions’ 2020 win total below.
Lions Win Total
Sean Koerner, the Director of Predictive Analytics at Action, breaks down how he’s betting the Lions’ win total.
The Lions are tied for first in my 2019 NFL Luck Ratings for a few reasons:
- Their +17 change in year-over-year strength of schedule rank (11th in 2019 vs. 28th for 2020).
- Their Pythagorean expected record, 6-10, was notably better than their actual 3-12-1 record.
- They had the fourth-worst luck in one-score games last season, going 3-7-1 in such spots, so they’re due for positive regression.
- They had the worst luck in time led, leading 43.1% of the time — 12th-best (!) in the NFL. Typically you would expect a team that led that often to win closer to 8.5 wins, so expect positive regression here as well.
- They had the ninth-worst injury luck last season and, after losing him for eight games, welcome back a fully healthy Matthew Stafford.
Thanks to their offseason moves, the Lions should also have at least a league-average defense.
After trading Darius Slay, they spent the third overall pick on CB Jeff Okudah. They also brought in a trio of former Patriots: DT Danny Shelton, LB Jamie Collins and S Duron Harmon.
Matt Patricia’s attempt to recreate Bill Belichick’s brand of football has flopped so far. This may be his last chance to prove he can make it all come together, which is why he’s a favorite to be the first head coach to be fired. But while it’s easy to frame a narrative that Patricia is a terrible coach who is responsible for their losing record, as my luck ratings indicate, the Lions were on the wrong side of variance in 2019 and should fare much better in 2020.
The NFC North is also likely to be weaker than most expect. Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago could all realistically struggle, so there is a path for Detroit to take the division. That’s why I made small investments in the Lions to reach their ceiling as NFC North champions at +600 and Patricia to win Coach of the Year at +4000, though I would no longer bet either at their current prices.