Dolphins Odds, Win Total, Projected Spreads For Every 2019 Game, More

Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

• Win total: Over 4.5 (-130)/Under 4.5 (+110)
• Odds to win the AFC East: 80-1
• Odds to make the AFC Playoffs: 11-1
• Odds to win the AFC Championship: 100-1
• Odds to win the Super Bowl: 200-1

In what ended up being the final year of the Ryan Tannehill experiment, the Dolphins finished with seven wins and missed the playoffs.

What are realistic expectations for new head coach Brian Flores and the Dolphins in 2019?

I've compared their win total to my projections and set early spreads for all 16 of their games below.

Note: All odds via Westgate and as of Friday, August 30.

My Win Total Projection: 4.8

There’s a reason the Dolphins the lowest win total in the NFL. They have an awful roster, and they’re coming off a 7-9 season that was mostly the result of great luck in one-score games (5-1 record). Plus, Miami will have extra incentive to get a high draft pick in the QB-loaded 2020 draft if they get off to a slow start and Josh Rosen doesn’t appear to be their future QB.

I typically shy away from betting the under on such low win totals. The public tends to underestimate the ability for NFL teams to regress to the mean the following season, but in this instance, the Dolphins’ mean is being the worst team in the league this year. There is some slight value on Under 4.5 +110.

Projected Spreads For Every Game

• Week 1 vs. Ravens: Dolphins +4
• Week 2 vs. Patriots: Dolphins +8.5
• Week 3 at Cowboys: Dolphins +9.5
• Week 4 vs. Chargers: Dolphins +7.5
• Week 6 vs. Redskins: Dolphins pick'em
• Week 7 at Bills: Dolphins +6
• Week 8 at Steelers: Dolphins +10
• Week 9 vs. Jets: Dolphins +2
• Week 10 at Colts: Dolphins +8.5
• Week 11 vs. Bills: Dolphins +1
• Week 12 at Browns: Dolphins +10.5
• Week 13 vs. Eagles: Dolphins +6.5
• Week 14 at Jets: Dolphins +7
• Week 15 at Giants: Dolphins +4
• Week 16 vs. Bengals: Dolphins -0.5
• Week 17 at Patriots: Dolphins +13.5