Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Where to Find Value on This Over/Under
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14).
- Can the Miami Dolphins mount another upset of the New York Jets?
- Our experts preview this Week 14 NFL matchup, featuring betting odds and picks.
- You'll also find analysis of the biggest mismatch and Sean Koerner's projected spread.
Dolphins at Jets Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Jets -5.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Remember when the Dolphins couldn’t get a win? They’ve managed to string together three over the past five week, including one against the Jets in Week 9.
The offense has come around since then as well, as the Dolphins have scored the sixth-most points in the NFL over that span. Bettors have certainly picked up on that trend as more than 70% of betting tickets are on the over.
Should you follow the public’s lead on this total?
Our experts preview this AFC East showdown, with analysis of the betting odds, a pick and more.
Dolphins-Jets Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Dolphins
Everyone of note on the Dolphins’ injury report was able to practice in a limited fashion, indicating they’ll like be ready for Sunday. Cornerback Ken Crawley (shoulder) returned to full practice after being ruled out of last week’s game.
The Jets have dwindled their report from 15-plus players to 14 after they placed linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) on injured reserve. Le’Veon Bell (illness) didn’t practice on Thursday, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll miss this game (yet). Jamal Adams — Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 safety– is in jeopardy of missing this game after he sprained his ankle in Week 13.
Ryan Griffin’s status is worth monitoring after he came down with an illness. Slot corner Brian Poole will also need to clear the concussion protocol to suit up on Sunday. He’s PFF’s No. 8 overall corner. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Jets Run Defense vs. Dolphins Run Game
The Dolphins don’t actually have a run game.
Miami ranks last in the NFL with 62.8 rushing yards per game and a 3.1 yards per carry average. The Jets defense, meanwhile, just so happens to rank first in both categories, limiting opponents to 75.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.
Per our public betting data, the percentage of dollars wagered against the spread on Miami at the time of this writing is around 30, a figure that could double as a fairly optimistic projection of Miami’s rushing yardage in this game (the true decimal form of 30% — 0.30 — would probably be even more accurate).
Want to have some fun this weekend? Get some friends together and play “Drink if you’ve never heard of him” with each member of the Dolphins running back depth chart. Here are the names: Patrick Laird, Myles Gaskin, De’Lance Turner, Zach Zenner. Cheers (x4)! — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Jets -7
- Projected Total: 45.5
I’ve been a bit hypocritical with the Jets as I made the case they were a buy-low team a few weeks ago then bet against them two of the past three weeks. However, I may pull the trigger on them here.
I also may break my rule of not betting on Dolphins spreads. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a high-variance quarterback on the worst roster in the NFL, making is nearly impossible to identify the value on their lines, but this week could be different.
The public seems to be backing the Dolphins after upsetting the Eagles and running what is arguably the play call of the year with a fourth-and-goal play in which the punter threw a 1-yard touchdown to the kicker. It just goes to show that Miami’s coaching staff has done a tremendous job getting this team to three wins.
I’m willing to back the Jets here at -5 just to catch the Dolphins, who are due for a letdown game.
Sam Darnold is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when facing pressure with a QB rating of 56.1 while under duress (per Pro Football Focus), which ranks 31st. But the Dolphins create the least amount of pressure at only 17.7%, so Darnold will be comfortable in the pocket and should be able to pick this defense apart as a result.
There’s been some odd betting behavior with 64% of the tickets coming in on the Dolphins but 72% of the cash coming in on the Jets. I was able to find only one game with such extreme percentages both ways in our Bet Labs database (since 2005). In an effort to increase the sample size, I looked at games in which less than 42% of the tickets and more than 58% of the money was on a side, and found those teams have gone 11-8 against the spread.
I’m the last person to read too much into a 19-game sample size, but if anything, it just goes to show how rare this split is. Though I’m not letting it impact my view of this matchup as a result. Still, I’ll want stud safety Jamal Adams to be declared active before making it an actual play. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
Since 2003, the under is 831-738-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.
It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.
Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 186-112-3 (62.4%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,481 following this strategy.
More than 70% of tickets are on the over, but history suggests bettors will be disappointed by the results. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Sean Zerillo: Under 45
I like the under in this game for the reasons enumerated by my colleague John Ewing, above — late season divisional unders with high totals are consistently profitable investments.
Jets head coach Adam Gase is also notorious for conducting slow-moving offenses. This season, New York ranks 31st in plays per game (58.8) and 26th in time between snaps (28.71 seconds).
In 2018 with the Dolphins, Gase’s offense averaged 30.08 seconds between plays, the second-slowest moving offense in the NFL.
This season, Gase has a top-10 defense (No. 2 against the run), which should theoretically allow the Jets to try to hold the ball and grind the Dolphins down over the course of the game.
The Dolphins took a 21-12 lead into halftime in their victory against the Jets on Nov. 3, but if Gang Green can get out to a lead here it will prevent Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick from surpassing their 75 combined passing attempts from that matchup.
With 73% of the tickets and 78% of the cash behind the over, the total has increased for this game from 44 to 45.5.
History suggests that the upward move makes betting the under profitable:
Combined with the Pro system for Divisional Unders, this game sets up as an extremely compelling trend play for under bettors.
Sean Zerillo is 195-131-4 (59.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.