Jets vs Broncos NFL Week 7 Picks, Prediction
Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Breece Hall.
- The Jets are road favorites in Week 7 against the Russell Wilson-less Broncos.
- Brett Rypien will get the start for Denver against a surging New York team.
- Phillip Kall breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Jets vs. Broncos Odds
For the Broncos, it was another disappointing close loss last week. Their offensive troubles are still abundantly clear, though the defense has managed to make up for their gaffs.
But now, the offense is even more in question as Russell Wilson will be sidelined with a hamstring injury. His absence leaves Brett Rypien to lead the Broncos' passing attack. Denver is still two weeks away from its bye week, which means it will need to find answers on the fly.
While Denver has been dropping games, the Jets have one of the surprise teams in the AFC. Three straight wins have them at 4-2 and playing a style that no one wants to face: A physical defense paired with a smash-mouth style on offense.
It’s looking like head coach Robert Saleh’s influence is finally starting to impact his team.
This is a battle of overachiever vs. underachiever. The oddsmakers put this at a near-even match. Let’s see if the Jets continue on their roll or if the Broncos can rebound after a couple of close losses.
Here are our Jets vs Broncos NFL Week 7 picks and prediction, as well as my best bet.
Jets vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Broncos match up statistically:
Jets vs. Broncos DVOA Breakdown
The Broncos’ offense showed signs of life in the first half against the Chargers. Three of their four drives produced points and traveled more than 46 yards. Unfortunately, that all went away in the second half — one scoring drive and no drives moving the ball more than 40 yards.
The difference for Denver in each half was its passing attack. This has been a systemic issue all year. In the first half, the Broncos average 8.3 yards per pass and have four touchdowns to zero interceptions. In the second half, their efficiency falls to 6.0 yards per pass and they have one touchdown to three interceptions. Denver clearly needs to review its halftime adjustment strategy.
Denver's ground game also made noise last week, and not for good reason. After stealing touches from the electric Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon was forced to the bench for the entire second half after registering just three carries. His replacement was Latavius Murray, who came in fresh off the practice squad. Allegedly, a good meeting between Gordon and Nathan Hackett cleared everything up, but who really knows?
Fortunately for the Broncos amid all this offensive chaos, their defense has been a saving grace. From Bradley Chubb up front, to Alex Singleton in the middle, to Patrick Surtain on the backend, this defense has high-quality playmakers all over.
The production has matched the quality, too. The Broncos are second in both yards per drive and points per drive. Beyond that, they are excellent situationally as they rank first in red zone efficiency with four touchdowns allowed in 15 attempts.
The Jets have been in a similar boat to the Broncos recently. On offense, they rank 24th in yards per drive and 18th in points per drive. However, defensively, they are third in yards allowed per drive and 14th in points per drive.
The trouble offensively has been the passing game. Since Zach Wilson’s return, the Jets have not surpassed 250 passing yards in a game.
In the past two weeks, when the Jets have looked the best, they have only averaged 143 passing yards per game. This has caused enough problems in the locker room that Elijah Moore skipped practice out of frustration and will not play this week.
It is unclear if the problem is the scheme or Wilson’s play. Regardless, something needs to be done. Quality players not wanting to be on your team is never good.
New York's run game has managed to make up for the pass deficiencies. The ground success is largely attributable to the development of Breece Hall. After taking a few weeks to get up to NFL game speed, Hall has hit his stride. In the past two weeks, Hall has rushed 38 times for 213 yards.
Defensively, the Jets have built their unit around what matters most as their free-agent signings and draft capital are paying off. Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers both rank within the top 15 at their position, per PFF. This both helps to stifle opposing run games and create pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
On the backend, New York signed D.J. Reed and drafted Sauce Gardner. Both have excelled, ranking top 20 at cornerback, per PFF. Their ability to cover gives that front even more time to create pressure.
In a game that pits two teams that are near mirrors of each other, a tight spread makes sense. This will be a game that comes down to which offense makes more plays.
We are putting a backup quarterback and the RB duo of Gordon (maybe) and Murray against Wilson and Hall. I think it is pretty clear which side to take.
Trust the Jets defense and Hall to take care of business.