Chiefs-Raiders Betting Preview: Will KC Fail to Cover Again as Massive Favorites?

Betting odds: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

• Spread: Chiefs -14.5
• Over/Under: 55.5
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Bettors don't care what the line is, they're going to bet the Chiefs.

K.C. is getting nearly 80% of bets as 14.5-point road favorites against the lowly Raiders at the time of writing (see live data here).

If the line were -20, I bet the Chiefs would still get more than 60% of bets. There's been some sharp action on the Raiders, but not enough to push the line to 14 yet.

Over/under bets are relatively split, but nearly 70% of the money is on the under. This cash flow has dropped the total from 56 to 55.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Road favorites of 10 or more points have gone 4-0 against the spread in 2018. I wouldn't expect that small-sample-size trend to continue.

From 2003-17, double-digit road favorites were 28-45 ATS. — John Ewing

The Chiefs are fifth team to be favored by 2+ TDs on the road in a divisional game since 2000.

The previous four teams went 4-0 straight-up and ATS, covering the spread by an average of 12 points. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? Arrowhead Stadium has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, but since Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City in 2013, the Chiefs are actually the NFL's most profitable road team (+15.2 units).

Reid is 14-3 (82.4%) ATS on the road against the AFC West over that span, covering the by 8.4 points per game, but two of his three ATS divisional losses have come in Oakland. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Travis Kelce vs. Raiders defense

This one is easy. Kelce leads the Chiefs with 101 targets and 67 receptions. In fact, he’s led the team in targets and receptions each season since 2016, when he was a first-team All-Pro.

On pace for the best statistical campaign of his career, Kelce is in a smash spot.

The Raiders are dead last in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. Safeties Karl Joseph and Marcus Gilchrist and linebackers Tahir Whitehead and Marquel Lee have collectively allowed a 77.3% catch rate, 900 yards and 12 touchdowns into their coverage.

It's possible that the Chiefs won't need Kelce to go off in order to win, but the Raiders will be entirely outmatched by the stud TE.— Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Raiders

The only Raiders at risk of missing this game are wide receiver Martavis Bryant (knee), cornerback Leon Hall (back) and defensive tackle Maurice Hurst (ankle).

The Chiefs are also fairly healthy; only wide receiver Sammy Watkins missed practice to open the week. The offense is expected to welcome back starting center Mitch Morse (concussion), while the defense seems closer to getting stud safety Eric Berry (heel) back after he practiced for the first time all season on Wednesday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Chiefs are implied for a slate-high 35.25 points, so you can make a case for any of the Chiefs' offensive starters: Patrick Mahomes, Spencer Ware, Kelce and Tyreek Hill all project favorably against the Raiders.

Mahomes is a better tournament option with his expensive price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He carries a 90% Leverage Rating on DraftKings in our FantasyLabs Models.

And as 14.5-point favorites, the game script should favor Hunt, who boasts the second-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel.

Hill’s 16.6 median projection on FanDuel trails only DeAndre Hopkins on the main slate. Hill is a better value on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating.

And finally, Kelce’s median projection on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel leads all tight ends by more than three points. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Raiders +14.5

The Chiefs have only been double-digit favorites one other time this season. That was Week 11 at home against the Cardinals, when K.C. 15.5-point favorites. We saw them ease off the gas a bit and coast to a 26-14 victory, failing to cover.

We have to always remember that a team is simply trying to win, not trying to cover the spread.

On the flip side, we saw the Raiders go beat that very Cardinals team the following week in Arizona.

The Raiders are a very bad football team, but I can see them sneaking in a backdoor cover here as the Chiefs play bend-don't-break defense toward the end of the game.— Sean Koerner

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.