NFL Betting Tip: Patriots-Eagles Week 11 Line Offering Value

Are you ready for some football? On Wednesday, CG Technology released spreads for every game for Weeks 1-16 of the 2019 NFL season.

Betting lines four months before the start of the season is inherently risky. It is impossible to predict player injuries and motivation before training camp even begins. Yet, there is one spread that is too good to pass up.

In Week 11, CG Technology lists the Philadelphia Eagles as 1-point favorites at home against the New England Patriots. This is the only game in which Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are listed as underdogs. The Pats are the defending Super Bowl champions, but Philly has a talented roster and if Carson Wentz returns to MVP form it would make sense that the oddsmakers listed the Birds as favorites.

However, according to The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings, the spread for this potential Super Bowl preview should be a pick’em, even with the Eagles having home-field advantage. A 1-point difference in projected and actual spread might not seem like much, but it does hint at value on the Patriots.

Plus, Brady crushes as an underdog.

Since 2003, TB12 has gone 21-8-2 (72.4%) against the spread (ATS) when listed as an underdog in the regular season per Bet Labs. On average, the future Hall of Famer has covered the spread by 8.0 points as a pooch.

Worst case scenario: Wentz is the MVP frontrunner when the Eagles host the Patriots in mid-November and New England is a bigger underdog. Big deal. Since 2003, Brady is 7-2 ATS when getting more than three points.

Best case: the Patriots continue to be the Patriots, Wentz struggles to stay healthy after suffering back-to-back season-ending injuries and New England is listed as a road favorite following a bye week … and you got Brady & Co. as an underdog.

Betting NFL lines — especially Week 11 lines — in May is not for the faint of heart but there is value locking in the Patriots as an underdog.