NFL Conference Championship Bets, Picks: How to Bet NFC Championship

Here's everything you need to know about NFL Conference Championship bets and our picks for how to Bet the AFC and NFC Title Games.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team, capped by my full betting card at the bottom of this article.

In the Wild Card Round, we focused on which teams had been to playoffs before and which ones were new. The Divisional Round was about fading overinflated, rested teams coming out of the bye week. But in the conference championships, history says the 1-seeds that make it here tend to take care of business.

• 49ers vs. Ravens Moneyline Parlay (-110)
• 49ers Team Total Over 28.5 | Over 33.5 (+230) | Over 39.5 (+470)
• Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards
• Lamar Jackson Under 210.5 Passing Yards
• Chiefs/Ravens 2H Under 22.5

Over the past two decades, 1-seeds in conference championship games are 21-6 straight up (SU), winning by an average of 9.8 points per game. That includes 19-4 SU as favorites and 14-1 SU when favored by more than three, as both 1-seeds are this year. A 1-seed hasn't lost to a 3-seed since 2004 (4-0), and 1-seeds with at least an 11% better win rate than their opponent (Baltimore qualifies) are also undefeated (8-0) this round.

It should be noted that three of the past five 1-seeds at -3 lost outright. When books tell us teams are basically even, minus home field, the results are playing out as coin flips. When the 1-seed is clearly favored, they usually take care of business. History says the 49ers will win on Sunday, and the Ravens probably will too.

If you just want to keep it simple, a 49ers-Ravens moneyline parlay pays about -110 at most books. One simple bet, in and out, trust the favorites to win at home. That math is in our favor, so let's get our first bet on the books.

But we don't like to keep it simple here at EGET, so let's dig into all the edges and matchups and find some more angles.

NFL Conference Championship Games Odds: How to Bet All 4 Teams in AFC, NFC Title

Lions vs 49ers Odds, Picks

• The 49ers were the best offense in football this season, far ahead of any other team when healthy. Meanwhile, the Lions are the worst remaining defense in the playoffs. Just about every analyst would agree the 49ers offense is the best unit playing this weekend and the Lions defense is the worst. How big of a gap is there between those units? Well, your answer to that question should determine your angle here.
• There's not much injury news to report. Guard Jonah Jackson is likely out for Detroit, but center Frank Ragnow will play through injury, and Jackson is probably the weakest link on a great line. The big question mark is Deebo Samuel. He could be a game-time decision after a limited week of practice, but the injury was to the opposite shoulder he missed time for earlier this season. I expect him to play.
• Over the past two decades, 1-seeds are 21-6 SU in the conference championship, winning by 9.8 PPG. That includes 14-1 as favorites of more than three points, and a 1-seed hasn't lost to a 3-seed in this round since 2004.
• The Lions were 12-5 ATS in the regular season, the best in the NFL, including 7-2 ATS on the road. Dan Campbell is 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
• Weather is not expected to be a factor in San Francisco.

• Detroit is built to win the trenches, but health is trending in the wrong direction there with Jackson out and Ragnow ailing. Offensive line is a weak link game. If the interior line is compromised against Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead, leaving Jared Goff under pressure all game, while he's already not great outdoors, could be lights out for the Lions' chances.
• Detroit's underdog script probably looks a lot like Green Bay's. The Lions are one of the league's top offenses and are particularly good running the ball. San Francisco's run defense is a soft spot, especially on outside runs. Detroit needs to run the ball, extend drives with Campbell's aggression, and keep the dangerous 49ers offense on the sidelines. The Lions run defense can hold its own, but Detroit's pass defense is in trouble unless Aidan Hutchinson stays away from Trent Williams and has a monster game.
• The Lions defense has been better in the first half (5th, versus 15th in the second half), while the 49ers defense has been worse (15th versus 5th). Detroit was 12-5 ATS in first halves this season. That could allow the Lions to hang early and keep things interesting.
• If you're playing props, you should know that the Lions allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including as receivers, so this might not be a big Christian McCaffrey game. On the other hand, Detroit allowed the third-most fantasy points and yards to opposing quarterbacks and the third most wide receiver touchdowns as well. Brock Purdy has thrown at least two TDs in 16 of his 21 wins as a pro. Brandon Aiyuk thrives in play action, where Detroit is especially weak, and could have a big game.
• Be careful about some of the small-sample Samuel stats and trends you're seeing. The 49ers have been worse without him, it's true, but they also dealt with injuries to stud Williams and, probably, Purdy in those same games. It's also a big difference losing Samuel in-game, when San Francisco has devised its game plan around his versatility, versus knowing what to expect beforehand (and not giving Detroit the same advance knowledge).

I have a very hard time figuring out whether Detroit will score in this game. San Francisco's defense is a bit overrated by the numbers, and Ben Johnson's schemes are a mismatch against Steve Wilks'. But Detroit's offense isn't particularly healthy and has laid an egg at times, and I don't trust Goff outdoors.

Detroit should definitely find success on the ground, though. The 49ers were league average against the run this season and worse late. They were actually pretty good up the middle, where Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw can clean up, but struggled mightily on runs outside the tackles.

That's why I expect this to be a Jahmyr Gibbs game, not a David Montgomery one. Gibbs is the lightning to Montgomery's thunder. His speed is electric and he can bust a long run at any time. Even though his touches haven't always been consistent this season, Gibbs has at least one 14-yard run in 13 of his 17 games (76%), with a median Longest Rush of 21 yards.

This line is too low. I don't trust the touches or game script enough to play yards overs or escalators, but I don't mind them if you disagree with my read on the game.

If you think Detroit wins, you'll probably need some help by way of San Francisco mistakes, most likely from Purdy. He's thrown nine interceptions in San Francisco's four losses, with multiple picks in all but one. Purdy is +105 to throw at least one pick and +500 at bet365 to throw two interceptions.

The one thing I'm most confident in this weekend is that the 49ers offense will score.

Everyone agrees this is the best offense and worst defense left playing, but I think folks are missing just how big the gap is. San Francisco's offense has lapped the league when Purdy, McCaffrey and Williams are healthy. The 49ers rank first in Rushing DVOA, and first in Passing DVOA by so much that they should really leave Nos. 2 through 6 empty to show how far the 49ers are ahead of the field.

The Lions defense played only seven games all season against an opponent that finished top half of the league in DVOA. One of those games was Week 1 against the Chiefs, who were debuting two new tackles and were missing Travis Kelce. Another was Week 4 against a young Packers offense that hadn't come together yet. Detroit went 1-4 in the other five games with a single one-point win over the Rams and allowed 29.4 PPG and 416 YPG.

Detroit's defense has been gashed by top offenses, and lately, has been gashed by just about anyone who can throw the football. In the past five games alone, the Lions allowed 411 and 396 yards in two Nick Mullens games, 345 to Dak Prescott, 367 to Matt Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield. That's 374 YPG over five games — Brock Purdy is +500 to hit 340 yards at DraftKings, by the way.

Purdy has lost five games as a starter. Three of those came against swarming, nasty Browns, Ravens and Vikings defenses, and another came when he literally lost the ability to throw the ball. The 49ers scored 19 or less in all five losses. In 21 Purdy wins, they average 32.7 PPG and have scored at least 27 all but three times!

That is a remarkable floor for a historically good offense, likely putting us one field goal away from an over — unless the 49ers lose. The Niners have scored 30 or more in 15 of 21 Purdy wins (71%). And remember, Campbell loves to play aggressive and will keep pushing late, which could mean several turnovers on downs and short-field scoring opportunities for San Francisco's offense.

I think the 49ers score at least 30, and I'm compelled to take the Niners team total escalator.

San Francisco has scored at least 34 in 10 of Purdy's 21 wins. We can play over 33.5 Niners points at +230 at DraftKings. The highest alt I see is over 39.5 at +470. The Lions allowed 37+ three times this season, and the 49ers scored 42+ three times, including against the Cowboys and Eagles.

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I'm confident in the 49ers scoring plenty of points. I'm not confident the 49ers will blow out the Lions, or I'd be playing a side too. But either way, it's easy to see a script where the Niners offense runs up a huge score on Detroit if this goes San Francisco's way. Give me the 49ers team total Over 28.5, and I'll play a good portion on Over 33.5 at +230 and sprinkle 40+ at +470.

If the 49ers do score 30+, any number of overs make sense. I like attacking with Purdy yards, so I'll sprinkle 340+ at +500, and Aiyuk would be my top player target.

I'll play the Gibbs over too since that is relatively independent of all the 49ers scoring. Gibbs will get his touches, and it only takes one long run for that one to hit. If you like Detroit more than me, I wouldn't mind Gibbs' Anytime TD odds at +145 since he's scored in six of the past seven, and those Purdy interception odds look tasty too.

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Chiefs vs Ravens Odds, Picks

• The Ravens have a significant rest advantage with an extra day and a half of rest. They might also have their healthiest team of the season. Mark Andrews is officially back, and it looks like star corner Marlon Humphrey will likely play. Kansas City's injury report is much murkier. All-Pro guard Joe Thuney is out, along with defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi, leaving the Chiefs shorthanded on the interior line both ways. Running back Isiah Pacheco is questionable, though expected to go. Linebacker Willie Gay appears less likely. He was the spy on Josh Allen last week and could be needed in a similar role against Lamar Jackson. Safety Mike Edwards has also yet to clear concussion protocol as of Friday.
• It's tough to get a read on the weather, but it looks like it could be a definite factor. Baltimore is expected to see temperatures in the mid-40s with winds in the low teens. There's also a high likelihood of rain. How much or how often that rain comes could be unpredictable, but games with 10+ mph winds are 65% to the under over the past three seasons.
• Over the past two decades, 1-seeds are 21-6 SU in the conference championship, winning by 9.8 PPG. That includes 14-1 as favorites of more than three points, and a 1-seed hasn't lost to a 3-seed in this round since 2004.
• Bet against Patrick Mahomes at your own risk. Mahomes is 21-8-1 ATS when he's an underdog or favored by three or less, including 6-2 in the playoffs. He's 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, including an incredible 8-3 SU. The three losses came by three, three and four points, and the one failed cover was by 1.5 points. Yeah, turns out that Mahomes guy is pretty good.
• The Ravens were 14-3 ATS in the first half during the regular season, where Jackson is 67% ATS lifetime as a pro. Be careful, though: Jackson is just 1-4 ATS in playoff first halves after failing to cover again last week. Jackson is also 6-17 ATS as a home regular season favorite of 3-to-10 points.

• The Chiefs offense had maybe their best game of the season Sunday against the Bills. Mahomes beat Buffalo deep with throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling a couple times, and the Chiefs dominated the middle of the field with short throws to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, playing much of the game with two — or even three — tight ends on the field against Buffalo's depleted linebackers. Kansas City will need to find another script this week. Baltimore ranks third by DVOA against deep passes and is outstanding over the middle both against the run and the pass with some of the best linebackers in the league.
• This is Kansas City's best defense ever with Mahomes, and the pass defense is the real strength. The Chiefs rank fifth in Pass Defense DVOA, and Steve Spagnuolo always seems to have his defense peaking in the playoffs. He does a great job mixing up blitzes to keep quarterbacks uncomfortable, and Jackson certainly looked uncomfortable throughout the first half against Houston's heavy blitzing schemes.
• There's little doubt that the biggest mismatch in this game is Baltimore's elite rushing attack against a bad Chiefs run defense. Baltimore leads the league in Rushing DVOA, thanks in large part to the threat of Jackson. The Chiefs rank 27th, and 31st in Run Stop Win Rate. Will Baltimore be able to run the ball all game and keep Mahomes on the sidelines?
• Jackson is apparently about to tie Mahomes in MVPs, but has won 11 fewer playoff games. All season long, Jackson backers have said he's playing the best ball of his career, worthy of matching up with Mahomes or anyone else. If Kansas City doesn't have a big edge at quarterback, it's pretty hard to find a script for the Chiefs winning this.
• Both of these teams typically get hidden advantages in special teams and coaching, but neither has a significant advantage here. If anything, it feels like both defensive coordinators could have a leg up on the offensive play callers.

Jackson is about to win MVP, but he looked like a rookie for an entire half against Houston's blitzing. Houston blitzed on over 70% of its plays and Jackson looked rushed and uncomfortable. The Ravens adjusted at the half by going to a quick passing game, but that doesn't mean Jackson "solved" the blitz. He's had trouble against blitzes his entire career. Baltimore solved Houston's constant blitz, but what happens when Spagnuolo's defense disguises blitzes and mixes up coverage to keep Jackson off kilter?

Jackson backers seem to think he's ready to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes, but the Chiefs would absolutely love to see this come down to a mano-a-mano passing battle. Jackson simply isn't an MVP passer, and I think he'll struggle to put up big numbers against a great pass defense.

The Chiefs allow just 197 passing yards per game, the fourth lowest in the league. They never allowed a single 300-yard game all season and held 10 opposing quarterbacks under 200 yards, including both playoff opponents so far. Jackson threw for 365 yards in one playoff game when he chucked it 59 times, but he's finished at 194 yards or less in all four of his other playoff starts.

Even if Baltimore plays well, the best Ravens script is on the ground, chewing up the clock and keeping either quarterback from throwing much. This can hit in a win by either team, and it can hit even in a shootout. I was initially hoping for a line around 180 or 185, so I'm delighted to go Under 210.5.

And for Chiefs fans wanting to play a side? Mahomes is +175 on the moneyline. What else do you need to know?

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I just can't shake the feeling that both defenses and both defensive coordinators have the advantage.

The Chiefs offense isn't "back" just because it played Miami and Buffalo defenses with half their players in the hospital. The Ravens defense is healthy and another animal all together — maybe the best defense Mahomes has ever faced in the playoffs.

Mike Macdonald uses creative pass rushes to put opponents under pressure, and Kansas City's interior offensive line is vulnerable with Thuney out. Mahomes has won over 90% of his games when he gets the ball out in under three seconds, but he's a mere mortal — around .500 — when he's over that. This season, the Chiefs offense ranked just 27th when passing under pressure. Mahomes doesn't have his usual outlets and it's hard to see the Chiefs moving the ball or scoring consistently in this game.

I'm still not sold on Jackson and the passing game in this matchup — see the Chiefs section above. Maybe Baltimore dominates on the ground and finds points that way, but that only chews up the clock, shortens the game and keeps Mahomes on the sidelines, helping an under.

Chiefs games averaged 39.1 PPG this season and went under the posted 44.5 in 13 of 19 games. Ravens games averaged 44.9 PPG, right at the posted total. When Baltimore went over this number, it was almost always because it scored 31+ points. When Kansas City went over this, it's because the Chiefs scored at least 27. I don't see either of those things happening.

Still, Chiefs games have finished with 44 or fewer points in four of Mahomes 16 playoff games, so I'll duck the full game total and play just the second half. Chiefs unders are 13-6 on the season, but their second-half unders are a ridiculous 17-2. Bettors blindly putting $100 on just Chiefs second-half unders all season would be up $1,373.

The Chiefs are allowing just 5.2 PPG in the second half. The defense has allowed more than a touchdown in only four second halves all season. It's allowed just seven points in two playoff second halves and only 26 points the past seven second halves combined — with four of those against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (twice). Of course, Kansas City is only scoring 6.6 PPG in the second half.

Chiefs games are going under the second-half line by 7.7 PPG this season. Keep riding what works in what might turn out to be a defensive battle.

If you're confident the Ravens win, betting Mahomes to throw an interception makes sense at -125. He threw one in 11 of 16 regular season games and he has four interceptions in his three playoff losses, versus just three in the 13 wins.

I'll be honest — I'm going light on this game. If this was a regular-season game, I'd probably sit out entirely. Consider these half-unit plays, just because we need some action on such a monster game.

I just can't make my mind up on the side or script here. Everything on paper screams Ravens, and Ravens big, to the point that I considered Baltimore alts like Ravens to win by double digits. On paper, Baltimore is better across the board. Heck, on paper, Baltimore even has the better quarterback this season. If not now for the Ravens, will it ever happen?

And yet … I just can't get myself to bet against Mahomes. The man has three career postseason losses, and only one in regulation. Mahomes finds a way, and the Chiefs offense always holds its best back for the playoffs and is clearly better than the underlying numbers.

I trust Mahomes and don't quite trust Jackson anywhere near that way. Win a game like this and we'll talk.

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• 49ers vs. Ravens Moneyline Parlay (-110)
• 49ers Team Total Over 28.5 | Over 33.5 (+230) | Over 39.5 (+470)
• Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards
• Lamar Jackson Under 210.5 Passing Yards
• Chiefs/Ravens 2H Under 22.5