Divisional Round Betting Market: Return of the NFL Trendy Dog

Divisional Round Betting Market: Return of the NFL Trendy Dog article feature image
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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott.

  • Last week, all four underdogs covered and three won straight up, causing bettors to get back on the trendy underdog wagon.
  • All four dogs are receiving the majority of spread bets this week, led by the Chargers at 63% of bets vs. the Patriots (1:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS.)
  • Three of the four dogs are getting more than 60% of the money, too, with the exception being the Cowboys (42%) at the Rams (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX.)

Bye bye college football season, hello NFL season. Oh wait, there's just seven NFL games left, too

Last weekend, all four underdogs covered, and three won straight up. Three of those dogs had the majority of spread bets, and the one that didn't still had 49%. Based on the early betting market this week, it seems like folks are expecting dog dominance to continue.

Here's what has happened since lines opened for the four divisional round matchups.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Spread: Chiefs -5

The Colts looked great against Houston and have looked great, period, over the past couple of months. They've done enough to convince 56% of bettors, who are responsible for 66% of dollars, to bet on them.

The Chiefs opened at -4 and reached -6 relatively quickly, but have since dropped back to -5. Kind of an inconsequential number, but I'm still surprised the majority of bettors are taking Indy even though it's not getting seven points.

Kansas City was a pretty darn good and buzzworthy team this season, but then again, bettors are all about what happened recently.



Over/under: 57

At 57, this over/under is practically 10 points higher than the Colts-Texans game last week. Money has driven it up that high as it opened at 55.5. Sixty-eight percent of bets are taking the over, and 82% of the money likes the points as well.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Spread: Rams -7

With 55% of bets, the Cowboys are just a tad less popular than the Colts. They are getting a full seven points, which is going to entice more casual bettors to take them.

While the Colts also had money in their favor, the Cowboys do not, getting just about 40% of the cash. Though the line has hit 6.5 on an occasion or two depending on the book, the Rams are back at their opening number of -7 at most books, and are even at -7.5 at a couple.

Over/under: 49

Trendy unders, too? This under is getting the very slight majority of bets at 51%, but the total hasn't dropped. It's essentially stood pat across the market at 49, and the juice at some books even suggests it may go up to 49.5.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS

Spread: Patriots -4

The Chargers are the trendiest dogs of them all at 63% of bets, which isn't too surprising considering their support last week. They closed with 72% of bets at Baltimore, which was the second-trendiest playoff dog we've ever tracked per Bet Labs.

Though there was some initial sharp action on the Patriots, 67% of the cash on the Chargers has helped drive the line down from +5 to +4, which is where the line sits at essentially every book.

We've yet to see it cross over to +3.5 or the key number of +3, but it is possible if LA sees another round of sharp action.

Over/under: 45.5

Snow? Maybe. We're still a ways out from Sunday, but the early forecast has scared folks into betting this total down from 47.5 to 45.5.

Full details can be found here.



Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Spread: Saints -8

After opening between +9 and +10 at most books, the Eagles are down to +8 and even +7.5 at a couple shops.

Their support is very similar as Indy's, as they have 56% of bets and 67% of dollars. That has helped drive the line closer down to the key number of seven, but I'm not sure if it will get there. If it does, I imagine some sharp bettors will hit the Saints with some buyback.

The Saints beat Philly, 48-7, a month and a half ago, but with Nick Foles now under center, bettors are blocking that game from their memory.

Over/under: 50.5

Nearly two-thirds of bets and dollars are on the over, expecting big point totals to be scored in the warm and calm Superdome air. The over/under, however, has actually dropped a point from 51.5 to 50.5, suggesting some sharp action on the under.

Historically, playoff games in domes have gone over in 29 of 39 games dating back to 2003. That trend is off to a 1-1 start, though, with Indy's stifling of Houston.


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