The NFC West's top teams faced off tonight, as the surprisingly competitive Seattle Seahawks looked to keep their wild card hopes alive while taking on the first-place San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco is down to its third quarterback, but that didn't seem to matter to the spread, as they were still road favorites in Seattle. With a 43-point total, this one projected to be on the slower side, but figuring out when those points were likeliest to be scored was imperative.
Here's how we were looking to live bet 49ers vs Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 15.
The Live Betting Scenarios to Watch For on Thursday Night Football in Week 15
Second Half Unders, Ideally With a 49ers Lead — LIVE BET MADE
Last week — the first of the Brock Purdy era in San Francisco — gave us a preview of how the 49ers want to play. Their dream scenario is getting off to an early lead, before slowing things down and controlling the clock.
That's been their plan all year, with San Francisco owning one of the bigger discrepancies between first and second half pace in the league. However, we saw a more extreme version last week, with 28 of their 35 points scored in the first half.
With San Francisco having a top-five defense against both the run and the pass, we were banking on them being able to limit Seattle's offense here. The Seahawks also have one of the worst run defenses in the league, and it's an excellent offensive line matchup for San Francisco. They should be able to extend drives and eat clock in the second half.
Ideally, a few quick scores by San Francisco would drive the total up early. And in a game where both offenses have struggled, the 49ers scored a quick seven points off of a poorly timed Seahawks fumble. Now up double figures right before halftime, this one should continue to be a slog. We'll take the live under of 38.5 at DraftKings (-115).
Outside of that, the only things to watch for are player props. At halftime of Thursday and Monday Night Football each week, my predictive analytics colleague Nick Giffen is live on "Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!" He'll cover props, and possibly join us with a total bet as well.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
