NFL Picks: How To Bet The Bears vs. Vikings Spread & Total On Monday Night Football
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Dalvin Cook.
NFL Picks For Bears vs. Vikings
The 5-4 Chicago Bears host the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings for an NFC North showdown on Monday Night Football … as 3.5-point underdogs. Are Nick Foles and Co. being undervalued? And is even a 44-point total low enough for this divisional slugfest?
Our staff details how they’re betting this primetime matchup, including spread and total picks.
Chris Raybon: Bears +3.5
We knew that Chicago was never as good as its 5-1 start, but it matches up well with Minnesota: The Vikings defense will be susceptible to the Bears top weapon in Allen Robinson, and the Bears excel at defending the positions of the Vikings’ top three weapons on offense.
Big money bettors aren’t buying it, though, steaming the Vikings to — and at some books, through — the key number of three (compare real-time odds here).
However, it’s been advantageous to fade these steam moves and buy back on the other side, which fits one of our Action Labs PRO Systems that has produced a 62.8% win rate since 2003, covering by an average of 2.89 points per game.
Additionally, Matt Nagy is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) when facing Mike Zimmer, including 2-0 at Soldier Field. And the Vikings haven’t played well here for the better part of the past two decades, going 1-6 ATS in Zimmer’s tenure and covering only three times since 2003.
I have this game power rated at Bears +1.5, which aligns with our PRO Projection for this game. There’s value down to the key number of 3.
Brandon Anderson: Under 44
Remember when the Chicago Bears were good?
They started the season 2-0 and were so impressed with their team that they benched Mitchell Trubisky in the middle of the third game for Nick Foles. Foles led the team on three fourth-quarter touchdown drives and a comeback win over the Falcons. The Bears moved to 3-0, and fans were sure they’d found their quarterback.
Chicago is 2-4 since that game.
Even more embarrassingly, Chicago has been an underdog in six straight games since starting 3-0. Make that seven against the Vikings, and surely eight when the Bears head to Green Bay for their next game. The season is getting away quickly from Chicago, and their offense has gone so MIA that they’ve been posting pictures of the offense on milk cartons around Chicagoland.
The Bears are hanging in things with their defense like usual, and they’ll need a lot of defense against a suddenly resurgent Vikings team. But never fear: Kirk Cousins is here.
You don’t need any special stats to tell you that Cousins has not been good on the road against tough defenses in primetime appearances. He’s been miserable. The Bears have also won four straight games against the Vikings, and they’re typically low scoring, close and ugly. Under 44 would have hit in five of the last six meetings, and neither team has scored more than 25 points in any game during that head-to-head stretch.
I see another classic defensive battle coming on Monday night. The Bears can’t score on anyone, and Cousins will struggle on the road against Chicago’s pressure. Take the under at 44, and I’d be willing to play as low as 42 if needed.
Mike Randle: Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Rec Yards
The Bears are in desperate need of offensive playmakers, and they’ve turned to their rookie wide receiver much more over the past three weeks.
Mooney has 24 targets over the past three games, with an average of 50.7 receiving yards per game. His 4.38 speed is a rare resource for a limited Bears offense. Now he faces a Vikings team that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Zimmer will need to focus on Robinson, giving Mooney a chance to attack the Vikings on the perimeter. Minnesota has allowed big performances to burners such as Will Fuller (108 receiving yards) and D.K.Metcalf (93 yards). Currently 11th among all wide receivers in air yards, Mooney is always a threat for a big play.
Coming off a season-high 11 targets, Mooney is primed for another strong performance. He has five receptions in each of the past two games, providing ample opportunities to reach this total.
I would bet this prop up to 43.5 receiving yards.