NFL Week 11 Picks
 | |
Chris Raybon: This is a tough spot for the Eagles as they take a run defense that ranks 28th in DVOA on the road — and on a short week — to face a rejuvenated Colts running game.
Entering the season, the Colts were expected to be an average to above-average team, but for much of the season, Jonathan Taylor wasn’t healthy and their offensive line wasn’t performing up to expectations. Taylor proved he's fully healthy last week, rushing for 147 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries while playing 94% of the snaps.
Jeff Saturday may be a former high-school coach, but he is also a former offensive lineman, and he had that unit playing better than it has all season. In the run game, they paved the way for Taylor to gain 3.77 yards before contact — nearly triple his average (1.32) entering the game. And in pass protection, they allowed no sacks and just four pressures, with all five starters posting some of their best PFF blocking grades of the year.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts play zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league, which could give the Eagles’ passing game some issues without Dallas Goedert.
While A.J. Brown absolutely destroys man coverage to the tune of 3.71 yards per route, he has been merely pedestrian against zone with 1.48 yards per route; it was Goedert (2.09 YPRR vs. zone) that joined Devonta Smith (2.10) as the team’s top weapons vs. zone.
The Colts also boast a top-five run defense and generate pressure at an above-average rate despite blitzing at a bottom-five rate, giving them a well-rounded unit to combat Jalen Hurts and company.
Scoring in general is also down this season, with teams combining for 43.8 points per game after combining for 46 last year. This creates tighter games and makes it more difficult for favorites to pull away.
Per our Action Labs data, underdogs of more than a field goal are 58-31 (65%) ATS this season, including a 46-19 (71%) mark when the total is 47 or below.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| |
Chris Raybon: The Rams may be getting Matthew Stafford back (cleared concussion protocol), but their offense is still absolutely gutted.
Cooper Kupp’s ankle injury leaves a gaping hole — his 864 scrimmage yards accounted for 31.3% of the offense’s total, and his seven touchdowns accounted for 44.2% of the offense’s total. Without Kupp, the Rams' top receivers are Allen Robinson, who already looked washed despite playing with Kupp; Ben Skowronek, a part-time fullback; Van Jefferson, who has caught just three passes on eight targets in three games since returning from a knee injury and was losing snaps to special teamer Brandon Powell last week.
They can’t even expect Tyler Higbee to pick up the slack, as the Saints defense is No. 1 in DVOA against tight ends, allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game to the position (31.7).
The offensive line is also in shambles. They have seven linemen either on IR or too injured to play.
The absence of center Brian Allen (thumb) forces them to move guard Coleman Shelton to center, and Shelton wasn’t even good at guard with his 50.0 PFF grade clocking in 67th of 83 qualifiers.
At guard, L.A. is forced to roll with Matt Skura, who has yet to play a snap this season, and Bobby Evans, who has arguably been the worst lineman in football. Evans has an overall PFF grade of 33.3, which ranks 82nd of 83 qualified guards; his 23.3 pass-blocking grade is the worst, and his 45.8 run-blocking grade is fourth-worst. At left tackle will be Ty Nsekhe, who has played 69 snaps and turned 37 last month.
The Saints have injury issues of their own on the offensive line.
They will be without left tackle James Hurst (concussion), who PFF graded 35th of 80 qualified tackles (67.8) and 10th of 75 qualifiers in pass blocking (80.5). They’ll also be without center Erik McCoy (IR-calf), who graded out 13th (67.1).
Likely joining them on the shelf is left guard Andrus Peat (questionable; triceps), who was only able to practice once this week. All three of their replacements – Landon Young (32.7) at left tackle, Lewis Kidd (28.7) at left guard and Josh Andrews (47.4) at center – have graded out among the worst players at their respective positions.
With the Saints fielding a depleted offensive line, the Rams defense should force them to work hard for points. Los Angeles is fourth in run defense DVOA and allow the lowest rate of 16-plus yard explosive passes (8.5%) and 12-plus yard explosive runs (5.5%).
Both teams tend to play at a slow pace. The Saints average 32.56 seconds between plays in neutral situations, which ranks 27th, and the Rams average 32.98 (28th).
Also working in favor of the under is referee Ronald Torbert, whose calls tend to favor the defense. Per our Action Labs data, the under is 7-1 (88%) in games Torbert has reffed this season and 29-9-1 (76%) in contests he's called since 2020.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
