NFL Odds & Picks: Betting Falcons vs. Panthers On Thursday Night Football

NFL Odds: Falcons vs. Panthers

Odds as of late Wednesday and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Falcons suffered yet another heartbreaking loss when Todd Gurley accidentally scored a touchdown last week. (Yes, you read that right.) Gurley could not stop himself from crossing the goal line on a 10-yard touchdown run when he realized he should have downed himself on the 1-yard line and allowed the Falcons to run more time off the clock.

It's been that type of season for the Falcons, who are now 1-6.

But the Falcons are much better than their record indicates: Based on their point differential, we would expect them to be closer to a 3-2 team. They're also a top 10 team in terms of time led, averaging 31:37 a game.

Yes, insert the memes of the Falcons being good at blowing a huge lead — however, I'm willing to bank on their "luck" turning around on Thursday night.

Yes, the Panthers beat the Falcons (23-16) in Week 5, resulting in the firing of Dan Quinn. But it's important to note that the Falcons were without Julio Jones for that game, and Calvin Ridley was playing through knee and thigh injuries. Well, both wide receivers are closer to 100% this time, and they've been playing much better under interim head coach Raheem Morris.

The Panthers generate the least amount of pressure in the NFL, and injuries to Kawann Short and second-round rookie Yetur Gross-Matos make it hard to see them turning it around, so Matt Ryan should be operating from a fairly clean pocket all night.

Even if the Falcons were to fall behind by one to two scores, their offense is potent enough to comeback.

More than 60% of the tickets and 50% of the money are on the Panthers as of Wednesday evening (find current public betting data here), which means there's a chance that this number moves up to 3. I'll 100% back the Falcons if the number gets there, and if it stays at 2.5, I may make a fun-sized bet and/or wait for a potential in-game opportunity on the Falcons.

PICK: Wait for Falcons +3 (shop real-time lines here)

[Bet now at BetMGM and win $100 if there's a touchdown]