NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Patriots at Dolphins Odds

BJ Cunningham: This is a must-win game for both teams, but the Dolphins have been playing much better football than the Patriots over their last three games.

When you think of a Bill Belichick defense, you probably think of it as being one of the best in NFL. However, this season has been a different story, especially in the secondary.

I have the Dolphins favored by about three points at home, so there's value on them at -1, and I would play them up to -1.5 (shop real-time lines here).

Pick: Dolphins -1 [Bet at PointsBet]

Seahawks at WashingtonOdds

Brandon Anderson: Washington is nearly a touchdown underdog, but the Football Team hasn't lost by this margin since the first month of games. Of course, that was the last time Dwayne Haskins started for the team, too, so that news might have you doubting Washington here, but it shouldn't.

Haskins may be the team's best option, and he certainly seems to give Terry McLaurin the best chance of a huge game against a secondary that's been ripe for the picking all season.

This is not a great matchup for Seattle.

Washington ranks second in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA, the perfect antidote to Seattle's strengths, and the Haskins-to-McLaurin connection is a great weapon against the biggest Seahawks vulnerability.

Beware the temptation to tease this one down, because Washington could very well win outright. The line moved in Seattle's favor when the Smith news broke, but don't be surprised if Haskins gives Washington more versatility and upside on offense.

Take the over on McLaurin props and grab Washington at nearly a touchdown underdog. Sprinkle a bit of your wager on the moneyline, too.

This is the sort of game Seattle tends to screw around in and play it close late, relying on Russell Wilson to get the job done. He'll be the best player on the field, but with Sweat and Young chasing him around all game, Wilson will have his work cut out for him.

Pick: Washington +6.5 [Bet at BetMGM]

Buccaneers at FalconsOdds

Phillip Kall: At 8-5, there would need to be a large meltdown for the Bucs to fall out of the playoff picture. With that cushion, addressing their deficiencies will be the focus of the next three weeks.

This will likely be a multi-week trial-and-error process. Until their issues are solved — particularly against the blitz — this offense will continue to not be as dominant as it should.

Atlanta’s offense has seen a drastic drop-off when Julio Jones is missing from the starting lineup. While Calvin Ridley has shown he can fill in as the lead receiver when Jones is out, no one has stepped up to fill the second option behind him.

With both offenses in shaky spots, betting the under is the way to go.

Pick: Under 49 (down to 48.5)

Bears at VikingsOdds

Michael Arinze: The Vikings are starting to show some cracks, but perhaps they've been there all along. This is a team that did start the season with a 1-5 record.

It's problematic for a team to have kicking woes this late in the season. That's a major concern for a bettor if you have to lay three points with a favorite. Missed field goals are essentially turnovers, and when you combine that with the Vikings' 10 fumbles, it makes sense to grab the points in this spot with the Bears.

Here's something else to consider: Over the last four seasons, Kirk Cousins has struggled to cover short spreads, per our Bet Labs data:

With a shaky Vikings kicker, every point will be valuable, so I'll look to back the Bears at the current number of 3 or better.

Pick: Bears +3 [Bet at PointsBet]

Lions at TitansOdds

Mike Vitanza: The Titans opened as 8.5-point favorites, then the line steadily crept up throughout the week as the uncertainty around Matthew Stafford’s availability grew, reaching as high as 11.5 at one point. Now it sits between 8.5 and 10 in the wake of reports that he's expected to play.

The Lions' ability to keep this game close is tied directly to Stafford, but even if he is active, it’s tough say how effective he’ll be considering he's dealing with a rib cartilage injury. That makes this a risky game to bet, so I'm staying away.

Jaguars at Ravens Odds

Mike Randle: With the playoffs on the line, Baltimore will likely win this home game by double digits. Lamar Jackson has this Ravens offense clicking, and his rushing efficiency appears to have returned to last season's elite level.

However, the return of Gardner Minshew against a short-handed secondary should bolster the Jacksonville offense. The Jaguars should also be able to move the ball enough to get this total to 50 points.

I'm taking the over at 47.5 and would bet it up to 48.5 (shop real-time lines here).

Pick: Over 47.5 [Bet at BetMGM]

Texans at Colts Odds

Mike Randle: I'm taking the Colts at home to dominate both sides of the ball and win comfortably. The shaky Houston offensive line will allow pressure throughout the game, and the Texans run defense will be no match for the Jonathan Taylor ground attack.

I like the Colts at -7 and would bet them up to -8.

Pick: Colts -7 [Bet at PointsBet]

49ers at CowboysOdds

Michael Arinze: Given Dallas’ woeful numbers against the run, I would expect to see a heavy ground attack by San Francisco right from the start.

I’m not too thrilled with having to pick a side in this game that features two backup quarterbacks. One option I would consider instead is a first-half play. If the 49ers are able to control the time of possession by running the football, I like their chances of holding the lead at halftime.

The Niners will also come out more focused given the success they've had on the road this season.

As for the Cowboys, things haven’t really gone well for them in the first half of home games. Our Bet Labs data shows that they’re 51-72-3 against the spread (ATS) for a loss of 25.71 units in this particular spot.

This season alone, Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS at home in the first half. BetMGM has the best number on the board with San Francisco as a -0.5-point favorite. This looks like a good spot to back the 49ers against America’s Team.

Pick: 49ers 1H -0.5 [Bet at BetMGM]

Eagles at Cardinals Odds

Mike Vitanza: At the time of writing, 66% of tickets and 94% of the money has been placed on the over, per our public betting data — that represents a substantial 28% difference, tipping that sharp money has found its way to the over.

Multiple steam moves — where large sums of professional money come in on one side of a betting line — throughout the week have also indicated the same. The data seems to support that position: Both teams have strong matchups for their playmakers and the right type of personnel to scheme to their opponent’s weak spots.

If the Cardinals can keep the Eagles' strong pass rush away from Kyler Murray, Arizona should be able to move the ball with ease against this Philly defense. On the opposite side, the strong running tandem of Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders should be able to carve up this 30th-ranked Cardinals rush defense (per Pro Football Focus).

With dynamic offensive playmakers on both sides in strong matchups, I’m betting the over and am comfortable taking it up to 51.

Pick: Over 49.5 [Bet at BetMGM]

Jets at RamsOdds

Phillip Kall: Playing elite defense and committing to the run has been the Rams’ formula to success all season. Against the Jets’ last-ranked offense, the Rams' defense should be able to continue its success and give Los Angeles no reason to abandon the run on offense.

The game script looks set to be one that is boring to watch but plays right into the Rams’ hands. This makes the 17-point spread too much either way since Los Angeles may have no problem keeping the clock moving throughout the game.

The total is the better way to play this game. With the Rams' elite defense and conservative style, the under is the side with value.

Pick: Under 43.5 (down to 42.5) [Bet at BetMGM]

Chiefs at SaintsOdds

Raheem Palmer: Bookmakers seem to be taking a position on the Saints.

In some ways, it’s understandable — their path to victory involves running the ball and keeping it away from Patrick Mahomes, which matches their strengths and the Chiefs’ weaknesses in this matchup.

New Orleans is second in rushing efficiency and fourth in rushing success rate against a Kansas City team that ranks 30th in defensive run efficiency and 29th in rushing success rate.

With Drew Brees returning to the lineup,  you could talk yourself into believing that this is a trap game for Kansas City. However, I’m not buying it.

Brees returns to action for the first time since Nov. 10, but he'll be doing so without his star wide receiver. And with a decline in arm strength and his current game being built on timing and accuracy as opposed to explosiveness and down-field throws, how can we trust that he'll be the same quarterback he was pre-injury?

We can't.

Although the Saints have appeared to be a top-tier team defensively, you have to question the level of competition, as they've played just the 16th-ranked schedule of opposing offenses this season.

The Saints have played the 49ers, Falcons (twice), Broncos and Eagles over the past five weeks, who rank 14th, 19th, 28th and 25th in DVOA, respectively. Those teams also have a combined record of 18-33 with a point differential of -158.

The Saints were also gifted a win by playing a Broncos team that literally didn’t have a quarterback, but instead practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton running the offense.

Outside of the Buccaneers, when the've played top-tier offenses in DVOA in the Raiders and Panthers, the Saints have given up 34 and 24 points, respectively.

The Chiefs have scored fewer than 23 points just once this season — a game against the Broncos in which the Chiefs were 0-4 in the red zone. With a total of 52, we know that the Chiefs will score in this matchup, so we're essentially asking Brees to come in cold and outscore a Chiefs offense that averages 31 points per game.

The Chiefs have won eight straight and haven’t covered any of the last five, but that should change here. I’ll lay -3 with the Chiefs as they look to cover the spread for the first time since the start of November, though I would only bet this to -3.

Pick: Chiefs -3 [Bet at BetMGM]