NFL Odds, Picks: Week 10 Betting Preview for Every Game, Every Team

Here's everything you need to know about NFL odds and picks in our Week 10 betting preview for every game and every team.

Yes, all of them. Every single game. Every single team. To go to a specific game or team, click on the matchup or logo below!

Below, we'll go through the latest, updated NFL odds for every game in Week 10, plus how to bet on every team in each game, with a focus on bets for fans of those teams (or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game), with my NFL Week 10 picks at the end.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let's get to the picks!

NFL Odds, Picks: Week 10 Betting Preview

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NFL Week 10 Betting Preview by Schedule

Colts vs Patriots Odds, Picks

• It's our last international game of the season, so set your alarms one last time for Sunday morning!
• Despite the slew of unders around the league, the Colts are tied for the best overs record in the NFL at 6-3. Indianapolis is 7-2 to the over in the second half, and these teams play at the two fastest paces in the NFL.
• If it gets there, international games with a total below 42 are 8-2 to the over (80%) all time.

This rivalry ain't what it used to be, but it looks like the Colts have finally found a path forward to the future, which is more than we can say for Bill Belichick and the Patriots at this point.

Shane Steichen has done a great job, even with injuries and a lack of high-end personnel, and the Colts rank 12th in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA. The offense in particular is a real strength compared to New England. The offensive line has become a strength under Steichen and a faltering Patriots defense is beatable. New England's line has fallen apart. The Patriots rank last in Pass Block Win Rate and will be without their only great lineman Trent Brown, so the Colts can win this game in the trenches.

It's typically profitable betting favorites in international games. Excluding Jaguars games, international favorites are 23-9 ATS (72%), including 12-3 ATS as favorites of a field goal or less.

It's getting harder and harder to find much to get excited about with the Patriots, but the sixth-round rookie from Liberty has been a nice silver lining. He appears to be stepping into the WR1 role with Kendrick Bourne out and has seen 20 targets over the past three games.

Douglas had at least four catches in each of those games and had a rushing attempt each game too. This is a playmaker the Patriots are looking to get involved. If he's cleared to play, look to bet five receptions.

The Colts feel like the better team, but I'm not confident enough to go too crazy, especially since these international games always seem a bit unpredictable. Mac Jones is just 4-14 ATS (22%) as an underdog.

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49ers vs Jaguars Odds, Picks

• Both teams are on extra rest coming out of the bye week but dealing with major injuries anyway.
• San Francisco should get Deebo Samuel back but is missing its LG and might still be without stud LT Trent Williams, who looks like a true game-time decision and likely won't be himself even if he does play. Star DT Javon Hargrave is also questionable, though he appears more likely to go.
• Jacksonville's offensive line finally looks healthy, but WR Zay Jones is out and its surprisingly great secondary is below 100% with CB Tyson Campbell and S Andre Cisco limited in practice this week and playing through injuries.
• This will be Chase Young's 49ers debut after being acquired at the trade deadline. San  Francisco's defense dropped from 6th to 15th in DVOA the game before the trade, after a third straight loss. But adding Young to their pass rush opposite Nick Bosa could be huge. That addition moved the 49ers from 9th to 4th in my Defensive Rankings.

It feels like the public is expecting the 49ers to just take care of business here, but I'm not sure public perception has caught up yet with how well Jacksonville has been playing. The Jaguars have played elite defense this season, not San Francisco, and they even held up against Kansas City and Buffalo. The Jaguars can hurt the Niners in the outside run game and also hold a clear special teams advantage.

I'm not sure if I'm ready to trust Jacksonville for the entire game, but the first half looks like a good angle. Home underdogs coming out of the bye cover 63% of the time on the first-half spread since 2008, and Jacksonville has been elite early at 7-1 ATS in the first half. You can play the ML too if you like at +135.

If the Jaguars do hang tough early and even lead at the half, could the 49ers still pull out a late win to avoid a four-game losing streak? Jacksonville has been the better team of late, but San Francisco is more battle-tested in big games like this and wields enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to warrant the expectation of a game-changing play when it matters.

The biggest mismatch in this game is San Francisco's improved pass rush against a Jaguars offensive line that ranks bottom four in both Pass and Run Block Win Rate. The 49ers defense has been better on the road this season, while the Jaguars have actually been worse at home.

Short favorites off a full bye week cover 64% of the time, and road favorites of under six cover 64% of the time against opponents coming out of the bye too, including 65% in the second half. Give Jacksonville enough credit to hang around but trust the 49ers to win late.

This bet is usually listed as something like "First Half Winner / End of Regulation Winner Parlay" at most books, or you can create it yourself with a SGP.

This is the best game on the slate and I'll definitely be watching, but I can't trust the 49ers without knowing if Trent Williams is healthy, and the Jaguars haven't totally earned my trust yet either. I can talk myself into either side here, even a comfortable win in either direction. That's usually a sign to stay away.

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Browns vs Ravens Odds, Picks

• This division rivalry has been very close in recent seasons. Four of the past six matchups finished as one-score affairs, and the teams split the meetings in four of the past five seasons. Baltimore won the first matchup 28-3 in early October when Dorian Thompson-Robinson started at QB for Cleveland.
• These are the two best defenses in the NFL by almost any metric. The Ravens rank first overall by DVOA, including first against both the run and the pass. The Browns are just behind them at second versus the pass, third rushing and second overall.

I looked at this under on Sunday night for my Hot Read and apparently should've grabbed it since the total was 40 then and dropped to as low as 37 before rebounding to the middle. I suspect it could drop again, and games with a total of 38 or below are 9-2-1 to the under this season (82%). Additionally, games at 37 or below are an amazing 22-6-1 to the under (79%) over the past four calendar years.

Unders have been smashing this season, and with two defenses this great, that looks like the way to go. The Browns' offense is struggling and probably won't do much against Baltimore, especially without its top three tackles missing. But if Cleveland's going to hang, it'll have to be the defense. A Browns' win likely goes under, but so does another ugly blowout loss, just in case. With a total below 44, unders have been profitable for both Kevin Stefanski (62%) and Watson (61%).

Argue all you want about which defense is better, but there's no question about the offenses. Baltimore ranks fourth in DVOA on the season and first over the past three games. Cleveland will be a tougher defensive test, but there's no way a team playing this well should lose at home to an opponent with no real offense. Teasing the Ravens moves the line to a spot where we just need a win.

As good as Cleveland's defense has been, it's not as great over the middle. Mark Andrews had a huge game with five catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup, and historically, he's dominated the Browns. He's had at least 58 yards in six of nine games against Cleveland since his rookie season and found the endzone in six of those games.

I'll stay away from a touchdown bet (+200) in a game with such a low total, but I love the yardage prop. Andrews has games of 78, 80, 93 and 115 against Cleveland, so I'll play an escalator too, with 75+ yards at +380 (Caesars) implying 21% success versus his 44% hit rate with those big games in the past.

This is too high a line to bet the Ravens outright considering the low total and how close these rivalry games have been in recent years, but I'm happy to tease Baltimore and just play for a win. I just can't see Cleveland's offense having much of a chance in this matchup.

I really like Andrews too. Just look at some of his games against Cleveland: 5/80/2, 11/115/1, 4/65/1, 5/78, 5/58/2, 6/93/2. This dude eats the Browns alive. I'll play Over 45.5 yards and 75+ as a small escalator.

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Texans vs Bengals Odds, Picks

• The injury list for this one is pretty ugly, especially for fantasy players. Texans RB Dameon Pierce is out again, and now, so is WR Nico Collins amidst a breakout year. The Bengals will be without Tee Higgins again, and Ja'Marr Chase has been limited all week, which remains a question mark as well.
• Both defenses are hampered too. Sam Hubbard is out on Cincinnati's defensive line, and Houston's secondary is shorthanded yet again. CB Derek Stingley Jr. was activated after a long absence but probably won't play much, and S Jimmie Ward is out while CB Steven Nelson could join him.
• The total for this game was 44.5 on Sunday morning, and rose all the way up to almost 50 early in the the week, but has since dropped back down and settled at the key number of 47 thanks to the crowded injury reports.

Schultz was my favorite fantasy tight end sleeper coming into the season, and he's started to become a real security blanket for C.J. Stroud. He had a monster game last week with 10 catches for 130 yards and a TD even after an early fumble, and he's scored a touchdown in four of his last five, averaging 60.6 YPG during that stretch with at least 42 yards in all but one of them.

The Bengals defense struggles to defend the middle of the field and has been lit up by tight ends in consecutive weeks, with George Kittle and Dalton Kincaid getting 11 targets each to combine for 19 catches and 230 yards. Cincinnati ranks bottom five in third-down defense while the Texans have been No. 1 on third-down offense, and Schultz is a big target with reliable hands.

I love Schultz to have a big game and will likely look to add escalators once lines post. I want to play 7+ receptions, something he's done twice in four games, and may consider a TD (+240, Caesars) or just stick with a yards escalator at +300 for 75+ yards or +825 for 100 (bet365).

The Bengals should be able pass on a depleted Texans secondary, but the question is where — and to whom. With Higgins out and Chase banged up, Tyler Boyd is an obvious answer, but Houston's Tavierre Thomas has defended the slot well. Irwin should step into the Higgins role outside and he's the guy that can attack the Texans' outside corners.

Last season, Irwin started two games when Cincy was missing one of its stud WRs, and he had 58 and 42 yards. He also started in the game Higgins missed a month ago and caught eight balls for 60 yards, and he scored a touchdown in two of the three games, while playing at least 70% of the snaps in all three.

Irwin is a great sleeper fantasy spot start if you're desperate. He's cleared this line all three of his starts, and if you like the angle, there's value on Irwin to score a TD at +400 too (PointsBet).

I was ready to go back to the well on Houston early in the week at Texans +7.5 or longer, but the line has overreacted to Cincinnati's WR injuries and underreacted to Houston's, which seem to be even more significant. We also lost the key number. I still think Houston can dominate in the trenches in both directions, and I absolutely think the Texans can win this game, so I'm not teasing or touching the Bengals. I looked at the over early too, but the injuries are too significant on both sides for me to get invested here.

I do love Schultz in this game. I liked him even before the Collins injury, so I'm happy to invest now when he should see even more targets. I love Irwin too, and I'm expecting a big passing game, so I'll play both.

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Packers vs Steelers Odds, Picks

• Trends favor the Packers. Matt LaFleur is 16-8 ATS (67%) as an underdog, and short underdogs with totals below 42 are 63% ATS since 2018.
• Our Luck Rankings also love the Packers this week, with Green Bay being the third-luckiest team over the first half of the season. Pittsburgh has been the luckiest in the entire league.

The Packers continue to struggle in the first half. The offense just can't get going early, and the problem hasn't gotten much better after the bye week. Packers first-half unders are 6-1-1 on the season, and Green Bay is lucky to get on the board with a single score most games.

But the Steelers aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard either, and they're worse in the first half too. Pittsburgh unders are 7-1 on the season. This first-half under is an angle our Chris Raybon has been on a couple weeks in a row on Packers games, and this is a great spot to jump in.

Two things can be true at once: the Steelers probably aren't as good as their 5-3 record, but they're a heck of a lot better than the Packers.

Pittsburgh's defense is the one standout unit on the field, and the Packers rank second to last defensively and overall by DVOA over the past month. Pittsburgh is way better at home, where Kenny Pickett has only failed to cover once in his career as a favorite. Pickett should have a big day with George Pickens against a beatable secondary.

Pittsburgh -2.5 was my Hot Read, and I'm still happy to play at the key number. Home field is typically worth 2.5 points these days, so that line effectively says these teams are a coin flip on a neutral field, and I don't buy that. Pittsburgh's defense is the difference, and the Steelers' offense is probably better right now too. I make this line another point or two higher and I'm happy to bet against Jordan Love on the road.

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Saints vs Vikings Odds, Picks

• Joshua Dobbs will start for Minnesota after his wild comeback win, but it remains to be seen who he'll be throwing to. Justin Jefferson's practice window has opened, but he doesn't look particularly likely to play Sunday. T.J. Hockenson and stud LT Christian Darrisaw have been limited in practice but are expected to play.
• It's usually not a great idea to back Dennis Allen or Derek Carr as favorites. Carr is 18-35-1 ATS (34%) as a favorite and Allen is 5-14-1 ATS (26%).

Both defenses rank top 10 by DVOA, and defense looks like the name of the game. That continues to be the Saints calling card, even with the offense trending up. New Orleans matches up well with opposing WR1s and TEs, so unless Jefferson ends up playing, Minnesota may not have many other options. But Brian Flores has done an incredible job with the Vikings' defense, so that could limit scoring both ways.

Games featuring a home underdog have gone under 62% of the time over the past two seasons, and both of these teams have been terrific under bets this season, with each at 7-2 (78%). It's possible the Saints finally win an easy one against a shorthanded Vikings' offense, but even there, a blowout 28-10 type win still hits the under.

Carr and Allen aren't good bets as favorites, and the Vikings are excellent at keeping games close and competitive. Minnesota is good enough defensively at home to keep this game close. A teaser works great here because it moves us from +2.5 to +8.5, crossing two key numbers (3 and 7).

The Vikings have covered a line of +8.5 in all nine games this season, and they've covered that in 22 of 26 games since the start of last season (85%). The Saints almost never win big and have failed to cover -8.5 in 22 of 26 games since the start of last year.

The Vikings are my favorite teaser side of the week. There's no single second pick I love pairing them with, but I'm playing with Baltimore. If you like Buffalo on Monday night, that's another great spot, teasing a -7.5 home side down to -1.5 and crossing two key numbers again. It's all about maximizing the value you're sacrificing to get the teaser.

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Titans vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks

• This line has bounced right around a pick'em throughout the week, and the Titans were even road favorites at one point. It looks like the Bucs will settle as short favorites. If you're playing a side, you might want to just grab a moneyline.
• The Titans are coming off a mini bye after playing on Thursday night last week, and that could be very significant with rookie Will Levis making his third start.

The total has risen a bit this week, but fade the move and grab the under. Both defenses have the advantage as each is terrific against the run and will be matched up against an old-school offense that will try to run the ball regardless. The secondaries are beatable and both are banged up, but it's Levis and Baker Mayfield, so there will be mistakes along the way.

The underlying metrics suggest the Bucs offense may be a prime regression candidate, and Tennessee's offense has been better over the past month. However, the Titans aren't as good on the road. Both teams are 6-2 to the under (75%) on the season, and Mayfield games with a total below 44 are 18-8 to the under (69%) for his career.

It's never a bad idea to bet on Mike Evans catching a touchdown. The man is putting together a Hall of Fame career and has scored a touchdown in 65 of his 145 career games, a remarkable 44.8% hit rate.

The numbers were down last year during Tom Brady's sad farewell tour, but Evans scored a touchdown in over half his games in 2020 and 2021. And he's doing it again with touchdowns in five of eight games (63%) so far this season. The Titans are a pass funnel with a beatable secondary and rank last against opposing WR1s, so this is another opportunity for a good Evans game.

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I never seem to have a great read on either of these teams. This feels like a very even and unpredictable matchup and I just don't need to be invested.

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Lions vs Chargers Odds, Picks

• The Lions are coming off a badly needed bye week after a slew of early injuries on both sides of the ball, so this might be the healthiest the team has been all season. Road favorites coming out of the bye week cover 60% of the time. The Chargers are on a short week after playing on Monday night.
• Jared Goff is 4-2 ATS (67%) after the bye, while Justin Herbert is 1-3 ATS (25%) against opponents coming out of the bye week with more time to prepare.

This game is a mismatch. The Lions have the better offense and the far better defense. In fact, Detroit may have the better quarterback right now with as well as Goff is playing and with Herbert struggling some with that finger injury. This Chargers defense is ripe for the picking, and Ben Johnson's offense should be ready to fire on all cylinders coming out of the bye.

Los Angeles ranks near last in the league in Pass Rush Win Rate, so Goff should have all day to pick apart this defense. Detroit has a big rest advantage and it might steal home-field advantage with the way fans have been traveling this season.

The Lions rank No. 2 in first down DVOA offensively, and the Chargers' defense is bad against early downs and last in the first half by DVOA. I think the Lions will dominate an overconfident team that they are simply much better than.

Ekeler is healthy and seeing his usual snap count and workload, which makes him one of the biggest touchdown threats in the league. This game has the highest total of the weekend, so we're expecting points, and Kellen Moore likes to run it when his offense is close to the goal line. Ekeler is also a threat to catch a touchdown with the Chargers lacking options outside of Keenan Allen.

This line is simply too short. Per Gilles Gallant, Ekeler has been at -120 to -200 every game this season and last. His last game with plus-money odds for a touchdown was Week 1 of the 2021 season. Ekeler has a touchdown in three of his five games this year (60%) and has found pay dirt in 14 of his past 19 games, a 74% hit rate that would put this line closer to -300, not +100.

I'll play an escalator and sprinkle 2 touchdowns at +600 too. Ekeler has had multiple scores in six of his past 19 games, so that's a 32% hit rate versus just 14% implied here, a huge margin in our favor.

This is my favorite game on the slate, and I love both of the bets above. I grabbed Lions +1.5 on The Lookahead a week ago because I expected it to get to the key number or beyond, and I still like Detroit -2.5 or -3 if needed. I'll also play both Ekeler TD props. He can score a touchdown in a loss easily enough, and even if he gets a second, the Lions might still cover or provide us an out on the Chargers.

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Commanders vs Seahawks Odds, Picks

• The Seahawks got demolished by the Ravens last week, but that's traditionally been the right time to back Seattle. Pete Carroll is 47-29-4 ATS after a loss (62%).
• Washington's defense has fallen apart, ranking last in DVOA over the past month. And don't forget, the Commanders just traded away star pass rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

Let's just say I expect the Commanders to be playing from behind with plenty of opportunities to pass.

We hit our Dotson over last week, so let's go back to the well. He's had eight, 10 and eight targets in the past three games and finished with 43, 108 and 69 yards. He also scored in two of those games. After a cold stretch to start the season, it seems Dotson has shaken the sophomore slump and is coming around.

Don't overreact to the Baltimore loss. The Ravens are really good and it was a bad matchup. This is another game against the DMV but Seattle is a different team at home and Washington will fly across the country for a second straight road game.

Washington's defense is reeling, and with no pass rush to get after Geno Smith, he should have a big game against an extremely vulnerable secondary. Seattle's offensive metrics still look terrific, and Shane Waldron's offense is ready to break out. This could be the spot.

The Commanders are a bad first-half team, so Seattle could get out ahead early and roll. Grab -5.5 if you can but play -6 or -6.5 if necessary. This could even be a spot to play some aggressive alternate lines.

This is my favorite bet of the week. I grabbed Seattle -5.5 and love the Seahawks at anything below the key number of seven.  Teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a 20+ point loss cover the spread the following game 68% of the time. In other words, teams we know are good, like the Seahawks, bounce back after ugly games. Late in the season from Weeks 10 through 15, that trend leaps to a sparkling 39-6 ATS, an 87% hit rate.

Even good teams have bad days. Seattle is good. Trust the good team in a great bounce-back spot.

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Falcons vs Cardinals Odds, Picks

• Kyler Murray will make his long-awaited season debut for Arizona, though it remains to be seen how mobile he'll be. Murray is 20-11-2 ATS (65%) as an underdog. RB James Conner is also expected to return after missing more than a month.
• Those two will play behind a compromised line. LT D.J. Humphries, the team's best blocker, will likely miss this game, leaving Arizona down four projected starters. Atlanta is missing Grady Jarrett and possibly David Onyemata on its defensive line, potentially neutering the lone top-10 DVOA unit in this game, the Falcons run defense.
• Falcons are natural predators of cardinals. The more you know.

The Falcons gave away a game in Minnesota despite lucking into a fourth-string QB, and now their luck goes the opposite direction with Murray's return. A game against the 1-8 Cardinals should be a gimme for an Atlanta team pushing for the playoffs, but most of the underlying metrics paint these teams as near equals — and that's without factoring in the return of Murray and Conner.

The Cardinals have started out games well and will be fired up at home with Murray back, and Atlanta has been poor in first halves. If you want to bet the Falcons, you may need to wait and bet live — once you see how Murray looks and, possibly, with a better line once Atlanta falls behind.

If you want to bet before the game, go with Atlanta second half. The Falcons are 6-3 ATS in second halves this season while the Cardinals are 2-7 ATS.

Even with Kyler Murray back, it would be unfair to expect him to be himself. His mobility could be limited starting out, especially with a faulty offensive line, and books agree. They've set his rushing yards line at 25.5 yards when he averages 38.7 YPG for his career.

We can't bet that under, but we can bet on Conner. He was having a really nice season before the injury and was a major reason for the early success of Drew Petzing's offense. Conner went over this line in all four healthy games and averaged nearly 80 YPG. So, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Arizona lean on the run game with the line banged up and Atlanta's run defense compromised.

This line is pretty low and likely factoring in a possible limited role for Conner in his return, but he's been a workhorse when on the field. The Cardinals should lean on the run game to give Murray and the line a chance. I'll stay away from escalators with all the injuries but bet the traditional rushing yards over.

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Giants vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

• Rookie Tommy DeVito will make his first start for the Giants with Daniel Jones out for the season. DeVito will be the 10th rookie starter already this season as we hit Week 10.
• In related news, this line leapt from Cowboys -10 Sunday morning to -15.5 when it reopened and it just keeps climbing higher and higher.

If you're looking for some special matchup or wild insight as to why the Giants might secretly have a chance here, I don't have it. DeVito should be at least a little better with a full week of practice as the starter, but this is as a big a mismatch as we've seen this season and you remember the 40-0 meeting the first time.

There's no reason to expect the Giants to contend — which is why we have to bet them. Brian Daboll is 8-4 ATS after a loss and 5-2 as a division underdog, but the team-agnostic trends really line up here and support double-digit 'dogs on the road and in the division. It's about playing the number, because sports are wild and crazy things happen.

Since 2018, moneyline underdogs at +750 or longer are 4-18 straight up. That might not seem great, but that's good for a 69% ROI. It doesn't have to make sense. Just play the long number.

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The Cowboys obviously have massive advantages all over the field, but especially on defense and special teams. Dallas shutout the Giants in the first meeting and has won 12 of the past 13 in the rivalry, and there's little reason to think this will go any other way. New York's shoddy offensive line is in huge trouble against Micah Parsons and Dallas' No. 1 Pass Rush Win Rate.

You already know all that, but books do too, so everything has been priced ridiculously. It's -150 for the Giants to score under 10 points. The traditional line requires an 18-point win. I wanted to run back the shutout bet after we hit our Cleveland +1300 pick last week, but that's +750, just too short to invest. This is a good middle ground, banking on the Cowboys to keep the Giants out of the endzone at a nice +175 payoff.

I have no case for the Giants. The Cowboys should win by 50. But Dallas already lost to Arizona, and I pretty much always sprinkle any moneyline at ridiculously long odds like this. At +1100, the Giants only need to win more than 8% of the time to be profitable. History says that number is just too low. Sports happen.

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Sunday Night Football: Jets vs Raiders Odds, Picks

• Antonio Pierce is 1-0 as head coach of the Raiders after a rousing win over the Giants. That was also Aidan O'Connell's first win as an NFL quarterback.
• You know you don't have to watch football on Sunday night, right? Go get some early Christmas shopping done! Take a walk! Spend time with the family!

If you insist on watching and playing Sunday night, the under is the only way to go.

Both offenses are absolutely awful. These teams are 29th and 30th in Offensive DVOA, bottom five passing and bottom seven rushing. O'Connell and Zach Wilson are two of the five worst starters in football and both defenses are good! You already know the Jets are tough — third in DVOA since Week 4 — but the Raiders rank 12th during that same stretch as Patrick Graham's young unit has started to find some answers.

This game is a trends landslide for the under. Primetime unders are 62% over the past four years and 76% this season. Games with home underdogs are 62% to the under over the past two years. Night unders with a total of 37-to-40 are 68% outside of Monday night. Games at 37 or below are 22-6-1 (79%) to the under the past four calendar years, and games at 38 or below are 9-2-1 (82%) to the under so far this season. I could go on, but you get the picture: bet on defenses and bet the under.

The Jets pass defense is elite but the run defense is closer to average or below, and Pierce showed last week that he might be an old school, smashmouth coach, with Jacobs hitting season highs in carries, yards and touchdowns. That's the sort of script you run with a rookie quarterback against a great defense, so expect Jacobs to get plenty of touches again.

He's already leading the league in carries, and I like investing in Jacobs to lead the league in rushing yards at +2800 too (bet365). For this week, just the traditional yards over will do, unless your book lets you bet on rushing attempts. Jacobs has at least 58 yards in six of his past seven, so that's a pretty high floor that should give us a good shot.

Grab the highest line you can find and bet the under. When the total starts drifting this low, books simply can't set the line low enough. Raiders unders are 7-2 on the season, and Vegas was averaging 15.6 PPG before last week's explosion against the Giants, with the defense allowing only 18.4 PPG in its past five. Jets games average 33.7 PPG outside of one Denver outlier. All signs point under.

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Monday Night Football: Broncos vs Bills Odds, Picks

• A once dominant Bills defense is faltering mightily with all its injuries. Buffalo ranked 3rd in Defensive DVOA through Week 3 but is 32nd since, dead last. By contrast, Denver ranked 32nd those first three weeks but is up to 17th since.
• Buffalo has failed to cover in five straight games. Teams on at least a five-game ATS losing streak cover at a 58% rate.
• Russell Wilson and Sean Payton have been dangerous as underdogs. Payton is 60% ATS as a dog for his career while Wilson is 66%. As underdogs of more than seven, the two are 4-2 and 7-1 ATS, respectively.

The Bills have struggled against opposing WR1s, and at this point, it's clear that Sutton is Wilson's go-to guy. Buffalo ranks 30th by DVOA against WR1s and has already allowed four opposing WR1s to find paydirt this season.

Sutton has already tied his career high with six touchdowns. He's scored a TD in six of eight games, and the Bills pass defense has taken a big hit without Tre'Davious White or Matt Milano. This game is one of the highest totals on the slate, so there will be points. Sutton has been Denver's best avenue to points.

Something definitely feels off with Buffalo, and there's no way I'd use this game as my final teaser leg of the weekend in case the Bills are past expiration. Denver's defense has been quietly improving in recent weeks and has seven interceptions already this season.

Buffalo's offensive metrics remain strong but Allen still puts one up for grabs a couple times per game. He's thrown an interception in five straight games and now seven of nine on the season (78%). Compare that to under 59% implied at -142 and there's definitely value. Denver should have a couple chances.

I can't shake the feeling that Denver's going to be frisky in this game and push Buffalo all the way. If the Broncos do hang around, they're probably gonna have to force a turnover or two and find the endzone a few times. I'll sprinkle both angles together as a SGP at long odds.

Be sure to shop around since Sutton's odds vary wildly. Grab him at +250 at bet365 or +240 at Caesars if you can, an implied 29% to score. He's as short as +150 (implied 40%) at some books.

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Week 10 Full Betting Card, Expert Picks

• Seahawks -5.5
• Jets/Raiders under 37
• Lions -2.5
• Austin Ekeler Anytime TD +100 | 2 TDs (+600)
• Tease Vikings (+2.5 to +8.5) & Ravens (-6.5 to -0.5)
• Mark Andrews over 45.5 receiving yards | 75+ yards (+380) escalator
• Dalton Schultz over 45.5 receiving yards
• Trenton Irwin over 31.5 receiving yards
• Steelers -3
• Colts -1.5
• James Conner over 51.5 rushing yards
• Sprinkle Courtland Sutton Anytime TD & Josh Allen INT SGP (+485)
• Sprinkle Giants ML +1100
• Week 11 Lookahead: Steelers +4.5 at Browns & Steelers ML +180

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