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NFL Picks for Pick’em Pools: ATS, Straight-Up Win Probabilities for Week 5

NFL Picks for Pick’em Pools: ATS, Straight-Up Win Probabilities for Week 5 article feature image

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.

  • Looking for pick'em plays for your ATS and straight-up pools ahead of Week 5? Sean Koerner breaks down his win probabilities for every game.
  • He outlines his projected win probabilities for all 32 teams and edges on each spreads based on his power ratings.
  • Get his full pick'em pool breakdown for Sunday below.

Editor’s Note: The following data has been updated as of Saturday to reflect Sean Koerner’s latest projections.

The Buccaneers and Patriots headlined Week 4 with their much-anticipated showdown on Sunday Night Football, with Tom Brady barely beating Bill Belichick thanks to a missed field goal. Now the two teams headline our expert’s Week 5 confidence rankings for straight-up NFL pick’em pools.

The Bucs and Pats sit atop Sean Koerner’s straight-up (SU) rankings with 90% and 75% projected win probabilities against the Dolphins and Texans, respectively. And if you’re in against the spread (ATS) pools, Sean has you covered, too. With a 7.3% edge based on his projected spread of Cardinals -3.2 vs. the actual spread of Cardinals -5, the 49ers lead his ATS rankings (compare real-time NFL odds here).

Below you’ll find his full rankings for SU and ATS picks for Week 5 as of Wednesday. Note that they’re based on his power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections, and are subject to change by the time Sunday’s games kickoff so be sure to check back here that morning for his final rankings.

Ranking NFL Pick’Em Picks

JUMP TO: Straight Up | Against the Spread

NFL Straight Up Picks

Conf Team Opp Win Prob%
1 Vikings vs. DET 83%
2 Buccaneers vs. MIA 79%
3 Patriots @ HOU 77%
4 Ravens vs. IND 72%
4 Cowboys vs. NYG 72%
6 Raiders vs. CHI 68%
7 Titans @ JAX 67%
8 Cardinals vs. SF 65%
9 Panthers vs. PHI 60%
10 Falcons vs. NYJ 58%
11 Chiefs vs. BUF 57%
11 Chargers vs. CLE 57%
13 Packers @ CIN 56%
14 Saints @ WAS 54%
15 Broncos @ PIT 54%
16 Rams @ SEA 53%
17 Seahawks vs. LAR 47%
18 Steelers vs. DEN 46%
19 Football Team vs. NO 46%
20 Bengals vs. GB 44%
21 Browns @ LAC 43%
21 Bills @ KC 43%
23 Jets @ ATL 42%
24 Eagles @ CAR 40%
25 49ers @ ARI 35%
26 Jaguars vs. TEN 33%
27 Bears @ LV 32%
28 Giants @ DAL 28%
28 Colts @ BAL 28%
30 Texans vs. NE 23%
31 Dolphins @ TB 21%
32 Lions @ MIN 17%


I’ll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I’ve also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.

Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate in Column F.

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