NFL Picks for Week 5: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Young.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 103-58-6 (63.5%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
In Week 4, there were no Luck Rankings matchups keeping the 2023 ATS record of unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold at 7-4-2. My personal record on luck-based sides remains at 6-3-1 for the season.
For Luck Totals the threshold is:
- A differential above 10 or below -10.
Unfortunately, last week's Luck Rankings-driven under ended up as a loss, as the Bears and Broncos combined for 59 points. That moves luck totals to 1-1 for the year, but at least we got closing line value by my suggestion in this column last week to wait when the total was 46, as the line closed at 47.
Our PRO Report and PRO Projections have helped us consistently get closing line value this year, so we'll keep up with the process as we dive into pass/wait/play for luck games in Week 5.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 5 Games
We do have a matchup that fits our Luck Rankings threshold in Week 5, with the Panthers sitting 24 spots lower than the Lions. The Luck Gap of 42.9% also nearly meets the 50% threshold, so this a solid luck-based game.
As the road team, the Panthers also fit the road unlucky team trend that is 54-21-3 (71.2%) ATS since 2018.
As much as this fits some nice trends, I think there's room to wait this out and see where the market goes. According to our PRO Report, 90% of the tickets and 86% of the money was on Detroit as I wrote this on Tuesday afternoon. That means it seems likely that this line will move to Lions -9.5 or even -10.
Just by shopping around, we can see the tendency is already heading toward a 9.5 number, and it may not stop there.
The Lions are a very public team right now, as everyone remembers their lucky opening-night win over the Chiefs and their win over their 34-20 win over the Packers is fresh in people's minds, although our Expected Score metric had it a bit closer at 31-21.
It'll be a good week to hop on the Panthers if this line gets to that key number of 10, but we're not quite there yet.
Verdict: Wait for Panthers +10
The Luck Total of -20.2 on this game suggests we should bet the under, but we once again have a good spot to wait it out here.
There have been an average of 52.6 points scored in games involving the Commanders and Bears compared to an expectation of just 42.5 based off Expected Score. In Week 4, the Bears just played in a 59-point game and Commanders vs. Eagles had a combined 65 points.
I expect recency bias to push this total upward, so there's room to wait it out even though we're in a bit of a no-man's land with 45 not being a key number. The public loves backing overs, and that's what they're doing early in the week with this game, as well.
I also think this matchup could play well to the under. On the Chicago side of the ball, its run-oriented offense faces a stiff challenge against a Commanders defense that acts as more of a pass funnel with a bottom-10 pass defense but a top-10 run defense, according to DVOA. The same is true on the Commanders' side, but the Bears defense has been bad enough in both facets of the game that Washington should be able to move the ball even on the ground.
Also of note, Washington has played at the 10th-slowest pace in the NFL this season and could lean on the run to help limit how ineffective Sam Howell has been, slowing this game down.
Both teams are already bottom 10 in neutral-script pace so there's plenty of under potential here.
Verdict: Wait for this to go up until the money balances out
At -16.6, this luck total suggests we should be betting the under here.
The Broncos rank 13th in offensive DVOA, but they've faced a comically easy schedule. Denver has faced three bottom-five defenses in the Raiders, Dolphins and Bears. The other defense that Sean Payton's team faced was the 18th-ranked Commanders.
Now, Denver faces a Jets defense that has been similar to the Commanders. This table sums up how similar they've been through four weeks:
| Defensive Stat | Commanders | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive DVOA | 18 | 19 |
| Defensive schedule | 2 | 5 |
| Pass DVOA | 23 | 22 |
| Rush DVOA | 9 | 13 |
| Exp. Score per Game | 20.85 | 20.75 |
| Exp. Score Ranking | 14th | 13th |
It took the Broncos two lucky plays to reach the 33 points that they tallied against Washington. The first, a 60-yard touchdown was a result of a long bomb from Russell Wilson to Marvin Mims Jr., is a play more likely to be negated by a Jets defense that ranks second in defensive pass DVOA against deep balls. Washington, meanwhile, ranks 27th. The second was a 50-yard Hail Mary as time expired.
The Broncos have had a historically bad pass defense at this point in the year. Justin Fields just had a field day against this defense, and Zach Wilson gets his turn next. The question is whether the historically bad defense or bottom-five QB will win out.
Thankfully, we don't have to decide that yet. With public and big money pouring in on the over, we could see this game reach the key number of 44, which is among the top three most common totals since 2015 when the extra point rule was changed.
Verdict: Wait for this to reach at least 44
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