NFL Player Props: Week 11 Picks, Projections for Antonio Gibson, Justin Jefferson
Adam Bettcher/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Jefferson.
The Action Labs Player Props tool provides edges for bettors throughout the NFL regular season. This week, I noticed more projections than usual that indicated more bets to make than usual.
I’ve focused on two names this week, both of which we’ll be fading in terms of their yardage. You can find out the best numbers for these props by subscribing to Action Labs, which has up-to-the-minute numbers across all sportsbooks.
Under 45.5 Rushing Yards
Despite Brian Robinson Jr. being listed as the starter, Antonio Gibson remains heavily involved in the Commanders’ offense. He has gotten at least 13 touches in the team’s last four games, including 17 against the Eagles last week.
The rushing efficiency, though, has never been there for Gibson. The Commanders offensive line has never been great, and he’s averaging just 3.09 yards per carry over his last three games.
That means Gibson needs about 15 carries to hit this over. His season-high for carries is 14.
This matchup with the Texans defense is a good one, since Houston ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass and 31st against the run.
What we’ve learned, though, is that Robinson is going to get the bulk of carries as long as he’s healthy. He’s been as efficient as Gibson, but he’s the early-down back in running situations.
Under 96.5 Receiving Yards
I know what you’re thinking. “I don’t want to bet a Justin Jefferson under. That’s asking for pain.”
I hear you. He has gone over this total in six straight games.
The Cowboys defense ranks seventh in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers this season, allowing just 53.8 receiving yards per game. Having a star cornerback like Trevon Diggs will make that happen for a team.
Dallas also ranks fourth in DVOA against the pass and 11th against the run. We saw the Packers run for more than 200 yards last week against the Cowboys, which may be a blueprint Minnesota looks to follow with Dalvin Cook.
Pinch your nose and fade Jefferson, who projected for just 81.8 receiving yards in Week 11.