Our football staff has locked in picks for both of Saturday's playoff games for our NFL predictions for the Divisional Round on January 17.
First, we'll target Bills vs. Broncos in the early window, followed by our best bets for 49ers vs. Seahawks later in the evening.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for Saturday of the Divisional Round.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Divisional Round Saturday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Broncos Total Prediction
By Chris Raybon
Historically, Sean Payton's teams tend to play lower-scoring games early in the postseason. Even when his high-powered Saints offenses were indoors back in the day, you’d see some of those games go to halftime with both teams having less than 10 points on the scoreboard.
He’s been strong against the spread in first halves, and stylistically it makes sense. Payton is old school. He rotates personnel constantly, uses a lot of tight ends and fullbacks, and slows the game down — and that style shows up even more in playoff games.
Both teams want this game to be slow. The Bills are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. That’s why their offense has struggled in first halves and then played much better in second halves all season.
Special teams also matter here. Bills kicker Matt Prater has been on the injury report and has missed more kicks than you’d expect given his leg strength. In Denver, that could actually help the under.
Both teams may trust their defenses and opt for longer field goals instead of pushing fourth downs. Payton, in particular, may not want to put Bo Nix in bad situations and will be comfortable leaning on his defense.
As for Denver’s defense, the Broncos have been significantly better when healthy. Their midseason struggles aligned with multiple key players missing time.
With everyone back now, the Broncos' defense has been lights out compared to how people were talking about them during that stretch.
On the offensive side of the ball, Denver’s pressure rate allowed has gone up and their yards before contact have gone down since losing center Luke Wattenberg, which also favors the under.
If Buffalo leans into the run game, it’s not an especially efficient rushing offense. The Bills can be explosive, but it’s not something that consistently scares you. This profiles like an old-school NFL playoff game with limited explosives and long, methodical drives.
One final note: Carl Cheffers is the referee for this game. In the playoffs, games officiated by Cheffers have gone under at a strong rate, according to Action Labs data.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
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Bills vs Broncos Moneyline Pick
The Bills won a close one against the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round, but the same concerns that I previously had with the Bills still exist entering this week's Divisional Round matchup against the Broncos.
The Bills' rush defense can't stop a nosebleed. In last week's game against the Jaguars, the Bills allowed Travis Etienne to rush for 67 yards on 10 carries (6.7 yards/carry) and Bhayshul Tuten to run for 51 yards on four carries (12.8 yards/carry).
The Broncos will have an advantage in the run game in this spot, which should open up the passing attack for Bo Nix.
I think we'll see the first-round bye prove to be fruitful and the Broncos to come out on top.
Pick: Broncos Moneyline (-115)
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49ers vs Seahawks Team Total Bet
The 49ers pulled out a victory in Philadelphia last week, but now they'll head back across the country to take on a well-rested Seattle team.
San Francisco will be without George Kittle after losing him to injury in the Wild Card Round.
While Ricky Pearsall could come back, this is a banged-up Niners group. They're going to be hard-pressed to put up points against the best scoring defense in the league.
Pick: 49ers Team Total Under 18.5 (-110)
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49ers vs Seahawks Spread Prediction
By Dylan Wilkerson
The Seahawks boast the best defense in football, allowing -.206 rush EPA/play. This is the best in the NFL by a wide margin.
The 49ers are plagued with injuries offensively after George Kittle's early exit in the Wild Card Round.
If the Seahawks can neutralize the 49ers' biggest offensive piece, Christian McCaffrey (like they did in Week 18), then this game can come up all Seahawks.
The Seahawks pass defense is also top-tier, ranking 5th in dropback EPA/play allowed.
The 49ers will be struggling to gain any offensive momentum, and the Seahawks should dominate a divisional rival on Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks -7 (-110)
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