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Our football staff is focused on seven of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 6 on October 18.
First, we'll target Jets vs. Patriots and Saints vs. Giants in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Bills vs. Raiders and Cardinals vs. Rams. We also have picks for Titans vs. Colts, Steelers vs. Buccaneers, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 6 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 6
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Titans vs Colts
By Stuckey
If you are looking for the grossest game on the Week 6 slate, look no further than this AFC South clash.
The Colts are sitting as seven-point home favorites with a total of 44, and Indianapolis is fundamentally broken right now. The defense is poor with glaring holes all over the field, and the offense lacks a reliable downfield passing attack, especially with Alec Pierce sidelined.
Do I want to lay a full touchdown with a severely flawed Colts team dealing with all of these issues? Not really. But on the flip side, do I want to bet on the Titans? Even less so.
The betting market on this game has been absurd. The Titans actually took some respected money early Sunday morning that drove the line down to -6, making them one of the deadest 'dogs to take serious money that I have seen in a long time.
It feels like shades of those Browns teams from a decade ago that went 0-16 and 1-15; they are just a terrible football team inexplicably taking blind money every single week despite offering nothing of substance on the field.
Sure, I can somewhat see the allure of grabbing a full touchdown with a road underdog against an unimpressive Colts squad, but not enough to actually drive the market and wait for big limits on a Sunday morning.
The trends on this game are conflicting.
On one hand, teams that start 0-5 straight up and are underdogs of a touchdown or more are an impressive 8-3 against the spread since 2013, which points to Tennessee.
But on the other hand, since 2020, NFL teams with a losing record that are favored by seven or more points have gone 7-1 against the spread, which points right back to Indianapolis.
It's tough to find a firm edge when you are dealing with two teams that are this incompetent on both sides of the ball and supported by contradictory data.
I'm not going to watch a single snap of this game. I recommend saving your bankroll for the better spots on the board — but ultimately, I lean toward the Colts here.
Pick: Colts -7 (-105)
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Saints vs Giants
Both of these teams rank in the top six in plays per game, with the Giants running over 65 plays per game and the Saints averaging nearly 67.
The Giants are surprisingly efficient in the passing game, ranking 12th in dropback EPA.
Both of these defenses have left a lot to be desired this season. The Saints rank 27th in EPA allowed and the Giants rank 22nd in EPA allowed.
This could be a surprisingly high-scoring NFC affair.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)
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Panthers vs Eagles
Let’s not sugarcoat it: putting your hard-earned money on the Panthers right now feels terrifying, but this handicap is entirely about the situational spot, and this specific spot screams Carolina or nothing.
The Eagles are an absolute disaster at the moment. They are flying back across the pond after suffering a heartbreaking loss to the Jaguars in London during the final seconds. That makes three straight losses for a deeply flawed Philadelphia squad that is limping back to the states — and now without the services of Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles' struggles haven't even been fully reflected in the final scores; they were statistically dominated by the Rams and Jags, almost lost to the incompetent Titans, and were completely destroyed by Case Keenum.
Philadelphia's offensive line is a total shambles right now, allowing a staggering 50% pressure rate, which is the third-highest mark of any team through five weeks over the past decade — 30% of its rushing attempts have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, ranking dead last in the NFL.
You simply cannot function offensively with those metrics, especially when key playmakers like DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley are banged up and the defense isn't fully healthy.
On the other side, you are getting a Panthers team that is fresh off a bye week and getting much healthier across the board. They are getting Jalen Coker back, maybe Taylor Moton on the offensive line, and several defensive pieces returning.
It's also worth noting how poorly Nick Sirianni performs in this kind of scheduling disadvantage.
Under Sirianni, the Eagles are 9-15-1 against the spread when facing an opponent who has over a full week of rest, and they completely fall apart in the second half of those games.
Bettors have absolutely no idea what to do with the Eagles right now — they are the only team in the NFL sitting at 0-3 against the spread when getting the majority of the ticket support — and it paints a clear picture.
The market still wants to back the logo on the helmet, but the reality is this Eagles team is broken, dealing with a horrendous travel hangover, a plethora of injuries, and facing a rested opponent.
I will hold my nose and back the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers -3 (-118)
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Steelers vs Buccaneers
By Dylan Wilkerson
This Buccaneers defense is strong, particularly against the rush.
I don't anticipate the Steelers being able to get anything going on the ground, which will force Aaron Rodgers and the passing game to take control of this game.
This is a game script that works greatly in the Buccaneers' favor.
The Buccaneers are also coming into this matchup with a rest advantage, as they played on Thursday Night Football last week.
All these factors create an ideal scenario for the Bucs.
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
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Jets vs Patriots
By Dylan Wilkerson
The Patriots have the 30th-ranked rush defense, allowing -.015 EPA/rush.
Braelon Allen is coming off of an amazing performance against the Browns, where he rushed for 116 yards and 1 touchdown — and I could see him duplicating that success against this weak New England rush defense.
The Jets defense is nothing to sneeze at. They rank 10th in EPA/play allowed, ranking higher than the Rams.
Dating back to the 2023 season, road divisional underdogs are 91-82 in the regular season against the spread.
Give me the divisional road 'dog in this AFC East matchup.
Pick: Jets +7.5 (-115)
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Bills vs Raiders
By Doug Kezirian
The market is currently hanging this line around -5.5, but my raw numbers have this game priced much closer to -3.5. That's good value on a Raiders team that has actually been pretty solid this year.
This handicap is mostly rooted in the situational spot, because the current schedule is simply asking way too much of the Bills right now. They are staying on the road out on the West Coast after a draining overtime victory against the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Playing an extra quarter in a high-leverage primetime game takes a physical and mental toll on a roster.
Even if you argue that staying out west avoids cross-country travel fatigue, spending the entire week in a hotel and dealing with potential "Vegas flu" distractions is certainly not a net positive for a visiting team.
More importantly, Buffalo's defense is horrendous and ripe to be exploited.
While the Raiders' rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired, their passing game has been potent with Brock Bowers operating as a pure matchup nightmare for opposing linebackers.
In practice this week, Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak talked about opening up some positional competitions — a classic Pete Carroll-style motivational tactic — and specifically mentioned getting Mike Washington much more involved in the offensive attack.
That shift in philosophy could offer some value in the prop market and provide the spark this rushing attack needs.
The Raiders play tough football in their home building, and while Bills Mafia travels exceptionally well, this is still a hostile environment for a fatigued Buffalo team playing on short rest.
Between the Bills' historically bad defensive metrics and the grueling overtime hangover, I think the Raiders are live to win this game outright on Sunday.
Pick: Raiders Moneyline (+195)
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Cardinals vs Rams
By Dylan Wilkerson
The Cardinals have a slight rest advantage here given that the Rams played on Monday Night Football (in an overtime affair, no less).
This game is your classic "these guys get paid too" showdown.
While there may be a big talent gap between these teams, this Cardinals offense has been pretty solid this year. They rank 10th in offensive success rate, and Jacoby Brissett boasts a higher completion percentage over expected than Matthew Stafford.
The Cardinals should be able to hang around in this game. I think we'll see the Rams leave the backdoor open on this big number.
Pick: Cardinals +12.5 (-108)
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