NFL Prop Picks: Bet This Patrick Mahomes Over, More Week 7 Player Props
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 51-27 (65.4%) so far and has a 257-177-5 (59.2%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app. Find his 13 (!) prop bets for Sunday’s main Week 7 slate below.
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Week 7 NFL Prop Bets
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Bengals at Browns Props
Giovani Bernard Under 54.5 Rush Yards (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Bernard will get the start for the injured Joe Mixon, but this line is a bit too high. The Bengals offensive line is one of the worst in the league, as seen by their fourth-lowest Adjusted Line Yards rank, according to Football Outsiders.
Cincinnati is more likely to use screens to Gio as an extension of the run game this week. I love Gio as a fantasy play, but don’t see him clearing this number.
Bet down to 50.5
Cowboys at Washington Props
Dontrelle Inman Over 3.5 Receptions (+136) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Isaiah Wright and Antonio Gandy-Golden are both out this week. I expect Inman to play on more than 90% of pass plays against a weak Dallas defense. This 3.5 is the correct number here, but the juice should be closer to +100.
Bet down to +110
CeeDee Lamb Under 4.5 Receptions (+115)[Bet now at BetMGM]
The Dallas offense took a huge step back last week with Dalton under center. Lamb had zero catches at halftime but was able to salvage a 7/64/0 box score in garbage time.
The matchup against Washington should be a close one, and Dallas will spread the ball around. Lamb is one of the best receivers after the catch, so I don’t want to risk taking the under on his yardage. Instead, I will attack his receptions.
Bet down to -110
Lions at Falcons Props
Russell Gage Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)[Bet now at FanDuel]
Russell Gage Over 3.5 Receptions (+125)[Bet now at BetMGM]
Gage struggled from Weeks 3-5, but the problems stemmed from a shoulder injury he was playing through.
He’s cleared both of these numbers in each of the three games in which both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were healthy this season, and I expect him to do so again here.
Bet up to 38.5
Bet up to -110
Panthers at Saints Props
Tre’Quan Smith Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both out, so the Saints will likely have to call up one or two players from the practice squad to have some wide receiver depth. The market for Smith should be a bit higher given his elevated floor.
Bet up to 47.5
Bills at Jets Props
Josh Allen Under 281.5 Passing Yards (-115)[Bet now at BetMGM]
In order for Josh Allen to go over this number, it’s likely the Jets offense will have to score 20 or more points. I expect the Bills to have a run dominant second half as they pad their lead, limiting Allen’s upside in this market.
Bet down to 274.5
Packers at Texans Props
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-118)[Bet now at DraftKings]
MVS has run a route on more than 90% of dropbacks for three straight games and is the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver in this offense. With Aaron Jones likely out and Robert Tonyan playing at less than 100%, Valdes-Scantling’s floor is much higher this week.
Bet to 47.5
Steelers at Titans Props
Diontae Johnson Under 4.5 Receptions (-110)[Bet now at BetMGM]
Diontae Johnson Under 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)[Bet now at BetMGM]
Johnson returns from a one-game absence, but with Chase Claypool’s breakout, Johnson will likely be the Steelers No. 3 WR this week.
It’s going to be tough for him to clear 4.5 receptions with Ben Roethlisberger having six viable pass-catchers this week. The under here is one of my favorite plays of the day and I would bet down to -150. I like the idea of stacking this with his receiving yards under (that I don’t like as much).
Bet down to 45.5
Bet down to -150
Chiefs at Broncos Props
Phillip Lindsay Over 36.5 Rush Yards (-110)[Bet now at FanDuel]
Snow is in the forecast for this matchup, which means the running game should get a boost.
Melvin Gordon returns after a one-game absence, but this backfield could be more of a 50/50 timeshare after Lindsay’s 100-yard Week 6 performance against the Patriots. He has a one-cut north/south running style that may be perfect in snowy conditions. The Chiefs have a run funnel defense that should make this a plus matchup for Lindsay as well.
Bet up to 41.5
Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Rush Yards (-115)[Bet now at BetMGM]
One of the reasons why I ranked Mahomes as my No. 1 QB heading into the season was due to his sneaky rushing ability. Last season, he dealt with knee and ankle injuries that limited his rushing stats for much of the season. It wasn’t until the playoffs we saw him close to 100% and flashing his running ability.
Now he has five straight games with 20 or more rushing yards. I don’t think it’s a fluke, and the snow will only elevate his floor/ceiling in this market.
Bet up to 23.5
Jaguars at Chargers Props
James Robinson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Chris Thompson was ruled out this week, which means Robinson should see even more passing work. It’s likely books haven’t adjusted for this quite yet, and I expect this line to get hammered and not last long.
Would bet up to 24.5
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