The NFL Prop To Bet For Cowboys vs. Washington On Thanksgiving Day
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Gallup
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season. He has a 299-226-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Prop Bets for Cowboys vs. Washington
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup Under 39.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Gallup is a volatile wide receiver who always has a wide range of outcomes as the Cowboys' main deep threat. He leads the team with 15 targets of 20 or more yards and faces a Washington defense that's allowed only a 36% success rate to throws of 20 or more yards (10th best).
The Cowboys are also 3-point home favorites (find real-time odds here) and as such will likely lean on the run game.
Andy Dalton has been relatively timid when it comes to targeting Gallup. In the 10 quarters of with Dalton as the starter, Gallup has hauled in only 52 receiving yards. Third-string QB Ben DiNucci formed the most chemistry with Gallup, hooking up with him for seven catches and 61 yards in his Week 8 start.
Based on all of these factors, Gallup's under is offering the best value here. I'd bet this down to 36.5 yards:
NFL Prop Bets for Texans vs. Lions
Texans TE Jordan Akins Over 30.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Jordan Akins opened the season as the Texans unquestioned No. 1 pass-catching tight end, averaging an 81% routes run per dropback over their first three games. He suffered a concussion and ankle injury in Week 4 that forced him to miss their next three games.
Akins' playing time has increased each of the past three games as he works his way back from injury. However, this week, the Texans need him to step up without Randall Cobb (IR) and Kenny Stills (out). We already saw a sneak preview of this in Week 11, considering both wideouts went down early in the game. Akins ended up with five catch for 83 yards as the Texans lined him up in the slot for 11 snaps and saw his routes run per dropback shoot up to 56%.
The Texans could increase his playing time closer to the 70-80% range we saw earlier in the season, in which case he would crush this number.
I'm projecting Deshaun Watson for only 285 passing yards while the market has his line set in the 300.5-303.5 range. I tend to like a bet even more on an over if I'm projecting the QBs passing yards that much lower than the market.
Akins has a ton of upside in this market. I would bet this up to 35.5 yards, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
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