Best NFL Prop Bets: Gardner Minshew’s Passing TDs, More for Titans-Jaguars
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.
- Thursday Night Football features a showdown between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars (8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network).
- This piece will focus on prop bets for Titans WR Adam Humphries, Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew and Titans RB Dion Lewis.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge. Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Let’s take a look at three props with a Bet Quality of nine or better for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Titans WR Adam Humphries
THE PICK: Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Humphries was an offseason addition for the Titans, but he’s yet to establish himself in their wide receiver corps.
Corey Davis stands out as the clear cut No. 1 option, leading the position in snaps and targets in each of the first two weeks. After Davis, it’s a hodgepodge. Humphries, Tajae Sharpe and A.J. Brown have each played between 36.1% and 49.2% of snaps this season, and Humphries has received just four total targets.
The Titans remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league — they rank just 24th in pass rate this season — and they also rank 20th in neutral pace. That just doesn’t leave a ton of volume for their secondary pass catchers to provide value.
Humphries has caught three balls for four yards this season, so this prop is offering plenty of value. I like the under up to -150.
Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew
THE PICK: Over 1 Passing TD (-114)
If betting on Minshew is wrong, I don’t want to be right. He stretches in the nude, has a killer mustache and shows up at NFL games looking more like a professional wrestler than a quarterback.
He is the living embodiment of “The Most Interesting Man in the World.”
The dude can also play a little football. He predictably showed some regression in Week 2 vs. the Texas, but he still managed to find the end zone once on a healthy 33 pass attempts. He also posted a completion percentage of 69.7% and an adjusted yards per attempt of 7.06, both of which are very respectable for a sixth-round rookie.
The Titans have been stingy on pass defense to begin the season — they rank fifth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA — but it’s a small sample size. They ranked just 21st in that department last season, so this matchup might not be as difficult as it seems on paper.
Asking a QB to throw at least one TD isn’t a very high bar to clear in 2019. I just flat out want to bet on Minshew, but I wouldn’t play this above -120.
Titans RB Dion Lewis
THE PICK: Under 22.5 rushing yards (-177)
Lewis has been a productive player during his NFL career, but he’s simply not getting the workload in 2019.
Derrick Henry has established himself as the primary running back this season, at least in the running game. He’s out-carried Lewis 34-to-6 through their first games, and he’s also been far more successful (4.9 yards per carry vs. 2.7). Lewis remains a factor in the passing game, but he’s not a threat to Henry’s workload at this point in this season.
This prop is juiced up pretty heavily, but there’s a reason why: Lewis has averaged just nine rushing yards per game through his first two weeks, and it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he earns a bigger slice of the rushing pie in Week 3. I’d play the under up to -190.