Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew
- Thursday Night Football features a showdown between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars (8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network).
- This piece will focus on prop bets for Titans WR Adam Humphries, Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew and Titans RB Dion Lewis.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge. Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Let’s take a look at three props with a Bet Quality of nine or better for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars.