Titans vs. Jaguars Betting Odds & Picks: Trust Jacksonville?

Titans vs. Jaguars Betting Odds & Picks: Trust Jacksonville? article feature image

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew

Titans at Jaguars Betting Odds & Pick

  • Odds: Titans -1.5
  • Over/Under: 39
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NFL Network

Odds above as of Wednesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Jaguars are 0-2. Nick Foles is on Injured Reserve. And now Jalen Ramsey has asked to be traded.

It’s safe to say things aren’t going well in Jacksonville. But should the Jags really be underdogs at home?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this Thursday Night Football showdown, featuring a look at Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Thursday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both are pretty healthy

The Titans will be without G Kevin Pamphile again, and the Jaguars will get starting LT Cam Robinson and DE Yannick Ngakoue back. CB A.J. Bouye was out in Week 2 with a hip injury, and he’s listed as questionable for Week 3, but did get in limited practice sessions all week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Titans -1.5
  • Projected Total: 39.5

The Titans opened as 2.5-point favorites, but despite receiving 70% of the tickets as of writing (see live public betting data here), they’ve dropped. This tells me there wasn’t sharp money pushing the line toward the most valuable number in NFL betting, 3.

Gardner Minshew was able to hold his own in his first NFL start, but the Jaguars ultimately lost a 13-12 nail-bitter when Leonard Fournette got stuffed on a two-point attempt after they scored in the final minute.

The Jags have slight value here, but one would think that with their 0-2 record, starting quarterback on IR and star cornerback demanding a trade, their team chemistry and motivation will take a hit. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Titans RB Derrick Henry vs. Jaguars’ Run Defense

The Jaguars have been pounded for 113 and 126 rushing yards in their first two games (both losses). They allowed 4.3 yards per carry to Kansas City, including an incredible 8.1 yards per carry to LeSean McCoy. Then last week, they allowed veteran plodder Carlos Hyde to rumble for 90 yards on a robust 4.5 yards per carry.

Enter the Titans, who have rushed for exactly 123 yards in each of their first two games. The Jaguars will need to contain Henry if they have any chance of avoiding an 0-3 start. The 6-foot-3, 247-pound athletic back with 4.55 speed exploded against Jacksonville for 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns in Week 14 of last season. Per PlayerProfiler, Henry ranked third in Juke Rate (evaded tackles per touch) in 2018, while ranking first in yards created per carry.

tennessee titans-betting odds-win totals-derrick henry
Photo credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry

Having to contend with a rushing quarterback like Marcus Mariota, the Jaguars have shown no reason to believe they can limit the center of the Titans rushing attack. Henry has also become more of a factor in the passing game, catching a 75-yard touchdown pass in Week 1, making it harder to focus on his rushing ability.

The Jaguars are in disarray, in desperate need of a win, and if they can’t limit Henry, they’ll be off to an unenviable 0-3 start. Mike Randle

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 109-113-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,657 following this strategy since 2003.

The Jaguars +1.5 are a match for this system. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Randle: Titans -1.5

It’s always tricky to pick against an 0-2 team at home, especially against a division opponent. But the Titans matchup perfectly with the Jaguars and are catching Jacksonville at the right time.

Tennessee has been stout against the run, holding Colts running back Marlon Mack to just 51 yards on 20 carries after he led all running backs with 174 rushing yards last week. The Titans also held Browns running back Nick Chubb to limited yardage until garbage time in Week 1.

The Titans have also been efficient against the pass, totaling eight sacks in their first two games.

While Minshew has become a folk hero, the first-year Washington State signal-caller will be expected to manage the game against the aggressive Tennessee defense. He was an efficient 23-of-33 for 213 yards and one touchdown in the Jaguars 13-12 loss at Houston, but he’s struggled to get the big playmakers involved, with WR1 Dede Westbrook totaling just 33 yards on six receptions through two games.

Winless home underdogs are always live in Week 3, but go with the Titans to win outright against a Jaguars team that could self-destruct after a third consecutive loss to start the season.

I would feel comfortable taking this line up to Tennessee -2.5.

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