NFL Player Props: Week 10 Expert Pick for Dak Prescott in Packers vs. Cowboys
Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott.
While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown prop specialist with the Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all player prop bets and will give out my best picks every week. This could include prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite player prop picks on Fridays. Through eight weeks, I’ve gone 12-14 for -0.5 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including playoffs), my record was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 22 of 30 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading the Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 10!
We’ve been doing well this season with quarterback rushing yard props. Josh Allen has been kind to us, as he's hit in Week 4, 5, 8 and 9. But the favorite for MVP could be sidelined this week, so we’ll pivot to another QB that’s near and dear to my heart — Dak Prescott.
The main reason I'm betting on Prescott? He’s finally healthy. The 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year has come a long way since suffering an ankle injury in 2020 and he seems to be finally trusting his legs again. Against the Bears in Week 9, Prescott called his own number at the goal line and rushed for a TD; he finished the game with 34 rushing yards.
I expect more of the same at Lambeau Field. While the Packers may be struggling, their ability to cover receivers could prove to be an issue for the Cowboys offense. The Pack rank in the top five in passing yards allowed per game and have only given up 10 receiving TDs.
However, where the Cheeseheads have been below average is stopping the run. They’ve slipped to bottom-five in rush yards allowed per game, which should allow Prescott and the Cowboys' rushing attack to take advantage. Mobile quarterbacks like Allen, Daniel Jones and Justin Fields have each comfortably rushed for 12 yards or more against Green Bay.
For what it’s worth, Prescott and the Cowboys have a storied history of disappointment when facing the Packers. Dallas is 1-3 SU in four games with Prescott at QB, but he’s rushed for at least 12 yards in three of those games.
Cole Kmet is someone fantasy analysts and bettors expected a breakout from this season. Those hopes are finally coming to fruition and we’re going to bet that he gets at least three receptions against Detroit.
Although Kmet has cleared this number in only three games this season, it wasn’t for a lack of trying. He has played at least 90% of snaps in all but one game and has been pivotal in helping Chicago rejuvenate its rushing attack. That’s why we’re getting a plus number in this spot as sportsbooks still expect the Bears to lean heavily on their running game against a pitiful Lions defense.
Detroit’s defense has been pathetic on nearly every level, which means everyone can eat. The Lions rank 25th in receptions allowed to tight ends this season — they allowed three receptions (on four targets) to Robert Tonyan in Week 9. In fact, the Lions have allowed at least three catches to opposing starting TEs in all but one game this season.
Kmet has faced the Lions four times in his short career and has cleared this number twice. I’ll take my chances at these odds for a repeat performance.
Six QBs have plus odds to throw a pick in Week 10, including Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady.
While Rodgers has been a cash cow this season, his odds have shrunk to the point where it’s now worth considering other options. That’s why we’re looking at Daniel Jones to break the interception-less streak and turn it over against the Texans.
Danny Dimes, to his credit, has been extremely careful when throwing this season. He has two interceptions and hasn’t thrown one since Week 3. That being said, these odds are too hard to pass on because sportsbooks have overcorrected. Jones has the highest odds of any quarterback to throw a pick this week — what is the world coming to?
The Texans have been a sneaky defense to back when betting intercepetion props. They’ve got seven this season and have forced the likes of Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence to throw one.
Houston has also forced an interception in each road game this season, and all but two road games since the start of the 2021 season. The Texans just have a knack for getting their hands on the ball. At these odds, I’ll take the bait.