NFL Week 11 Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Picks for Davante Adams & Joe Burrow

Davante Adams
ATD +140 (bet365)

Adams is third in red-zone targets and overall targets, and he’s first in receiving touchdowns. Those numbers should give Adams a minus number next to him in the ATD market every week.

These are the biggest odds of the season for Adams, though, and it’s because he’ll be facing Broncos CB Patrick Surtain. The first time these two faced this season, Adams has nine catches for 101 yards, including four targets in the red zone.

Another interesting trend for Adams: Since 2016, he has only been kept out of the end zone by one divisional opponent between both matchups during the regular season. He already has touchdowns this season against the Chargers and Chiefs.

Terry McLaurin
ATD +185 (FanDuel)

I’m sticking with another WR1 because I think he’s due.

McLaurin only has two touchdowns this season despite being the Commanders’ top receiving option. He has seven red-zone targets this season, which leads the team.

With Taylor Heinicke under center, McLaurin’s targets and routes run have increased. He has 25 catches for 375 yards and a touchdown during that stretch.

For Houston, top-pick Derek Stingley Jr. is out this week, which is a blow. The No. 3 overall pick is yet to allow a touchdown this season.

I hate to use intuition or my gut as a reason for making a pick, but I’m going with McLaurin this week.

Pick: Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown Scorer

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Michael Gallup
ATD +250 (BetMGM)

Gallup has 13 targets in the Cowboys’ last two games with Dad Prescott back, and he’s played more than 80% of snaps in both.

This week, Dallas faces a Minnesota pass defense that has struggled. The Vikings have allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers in their last three games. They also rank in the bottom five in receptions and receiving yards per game.

Patrick Peterson’s attention will likely be on Ceedee Lamb in this game. The game also has one of the highest totals of the week at 47.5, and I expect Gallup to get an opportunity to score at least six of those.

Cole Kmet
ATD +285 (Caesars)

I’m riding the hot hand here since I can’t ignore what Kmet has done over the last three games. He has five touchdowns and six red-zone targets, becoming Justin Fields’ go-to target in the red zone.

The Falcons have failed to stop opposing tight ends this season. They rank in the bottom five in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position, but they’ve given up just one touchdown to opposing tight ends.

Kmet has consistently played more than 90% of snaps this season. That means we know he’ll be out there for looks.

This game has one of the highest totals of the week at 49. The Bears offense has scored 12 touchdowns over the last three games, and Kmet has tallied five of those. We’ll back him for at least one more.

Joe Burrow
ATD +550 (bet365)

This is a bit of a long shot, but I’m going to take a swing on Burrow keeping up a strong pace.

Joe Mixon exploded for five touchdowns the Bengals’ last game, but Burrow got one himself, as well. He now has run for touchdowns in four of his last five games. Three of those were from the 1-yard line, but the other was a 19-yard scamper.

Burrow is the most-profitable quarterback in this market this season. He’s becoming the new Ryan Tannehill.

For what it’s worth, Burrow did scored on an eight-yard touchdown run last season. At these odds, he’s my top QB pick of the week.