NFL Week 15 Picks: Early Bets for Patriots vs Raiders, Giants vs Commanders
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Jones.
NFL Odds & Picks
Dylan Wilkerson: Most quarterbacks dread going into an opposing team’s stadium, but it seems Mac Jones loves the road. His QBR is nearly 11 points higher in road games than in home games, and he’s thrown for over double the amount of touchdowns.
The Raiders defense lacks the ability to get stops when needed the most; this was evident in their Thursday Night matchup against the Rams. Their pass defense has allowed just over 7.5 yards per pass attempt on the season, and they have allowed the highest average opponent QBR (103.4).
Las Vegas defends against the run very well, so I expect to see Bill Belichick air it out with Jones early and often. This plays into the weakness of the Raiders pass defense, and allows the Patriots to control this matchup from start to finish.
No one will be rushing to the window to bet the Raiders, especially after their meltdown in primetime. If you think the Patriots take care of the Cardinals on Monday night, this is a great chance for you to double up.
If the Pats perform well, we could see the Patriots become a favorite against the Raiders. Hop on this while they are still underdogs!
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Anthony Dabbundo: The best time to bet on a team is usually the week after they get absolutely shellacked.
The Giants lost 48-22 on Sunday to Philadelphia at home and the market has subsequently overreacted. Now, bettors can capitalize on this inefficiency by backing the Giants on the road in a divisional game with a low total where points should be hard to come by.
Teams who lose by 20 or more points in a game cover the next game 55% of the time since 2003.
New York and Washington just played two weeks ago to a 20-20 tie. Based on the box score, a tie was a fair result. Daniel Jones has also been a considerably better quarterback against the spread when he’s away from home.
Washington is coming off of its bye week with a considerable rest advantage, but the Commanders have been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL. Based on our Action Network Luck rankings, the Commanders rank as the fifth-luckiest team.
Since Taylor Heinicke took over as the Commanders’ starting quarterback in Week 7, they have a 5-1-1 record. It’s quite impressive and he’s been an upgrade over Carson Wentz. But Washington is still just 17th in success rate and 20th in offensive EPA per play efficiency. The defense has been elite in that timeframe and has powered them to victories.
But in this divisional battle, Washington’s offense isn’t good enough to warrant this wide spread. I’ll take the Giants at +4.5 or better.