NFL Week 18 PrizePicks Predictions: Plays for Trevor Lawrence, More
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.
If you want to add an extra edge to your card this Saturday, check out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the two PrizePicks props I’d consider playing for the two-game slate on Saturday, one for Chiefs vs. Raiders and one for Titans vs. Jaguars.
Over/Under 27.5 Receiving Yards
Hunter Renfrow’s usage has been on a steady decline all season. You knew he would never see as many targets with Davante Adams on the roster, but now it seems like he’s not even seeing the field.
Renfrow has posted his three lowest snap counts over the past three weeks, staying off the field for over 50% of possible offensive snaps in all three games. He plummeted to just 25 total snaps in Week 15 against Pittsburgh and ran just 23 routes in Week 16 against San Francisco.
Predictably, Renfrow’s targets have dropped.
Renfrow has stayed under 27.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and six of nine total games. Maybe you could see an uptick in available yards with Jarrett Stidham under center instead of Derek Carr (what a wild sentence to type), but that wasn’t the case last week, as Renfrow finished with 19 yards on four targets.
Kansas City doesn’t have a good pass defense, but the Chiefs surprisingly allow the third-lowest yards per completion. That’s bad news for Renfrow, who’s on pace to post the lowest yards per reception (9.2) and yards per target (6.2) of his career – by a lot.
Projections are also low on Renfrow, with The Action Labs Player Props Tool projecting him for 23.5 receiving yards on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Under 27.5 receiving yards
Over/Under 265.5 Passing Yards
Trevor Lawrence has arrived.
Since Week 10, Lawrence is eighth in EPA+CPOE composite and seventh in Success Rate. He’s also made 16 big-time throws to just eight turnover worthy plays during the stretch. It’s all resulted in the best stretch of the young quarterback’s career.
Per-game average over the last 7 multiplied by a full 17-game season:
5,100 total yards
39 total TDs
He’s exceeding the hype. pic.twitter.com/cWUymV6tBS
— Ryan Michael (@theryanmichael) December 24, 2022
Plus, Lawrence is finally making the “WOW” throws that the Twitter community has been waiting for.
— Jacob Nierob (@JNierob) January 5, 2023
Lawrence now gets to face one of the worst pass defenses in the Titans, who rank …
- 28th in Pass Defense DVOA
- 28th in Pass EPA per play allowed
- 22nd in Pass Success Rate allowed
- 32nd in total passing yards allowed
Everyone attacks Tennessee through the air. Four of the last five quarterbacks to face them have gone over their passing yards prop, and 10 of 16 have on the season.
That list includes Lawrence, who took on Tennessee in Week 14 and dropped 368 passing yards on 30-for-42 passing with three touchdowns and no interceptions. It was a bloodbath that ended in a 36-22 Jacksonville win.
This week’s game is for the divisional title, and Joshua Dobbs is starting for Tennessee. Lawrence will have plenty of drives, and I bet he wants to ball out against a horrific pass defense to bring the AFC South title back to north Florida.
I’ll take those odds and bet on him tossing for 300 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday night.
Pick: Over 265.5 pass yards