NFL Week 18 PrizePicks Predictions: Plays for Josh Allen, David Njoku
Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
If you want to add an extra edge to your betting card on Sunday, check out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the two PrizePicks plays I’m putting together for this weekend.
Over/Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
David Njoku is a different player when the Browns hit the road. Or, at least recently he is.
In three straight home games, Njoku has failed to cash over 33.5 receiving yards. Yet, he’s gone over this number in three of the last five road games.
Njoku has also been on the field in road games more often. He was on the field for 69 of 72 offensive snaps in Cincinnati and 53 of 57 in Washington. Predictably, his targets ticked up with more routes, as he picked up 12 total between the two games.
Njoku has been a pain in Pittsburgh’s side. He’s cashed this number in two of three against Pittsburgh over the last two seasons, including going for nine receptions and 89 yards earlier this season.
However, that could be due to Pittsburgh’s defense, which funnels passes to tight ends. Despite ranking seventh in DVOA against the position, the Steelers allow 7.5 pass attempts and 52.4 receiving yards per game to the position, both numbers far above average.
For example, Mark Andrews went for 100 yards last week, and Darren Waller went for 58 yards the week before. Both cashed their receiving yards prop.
Projection systems are relatively high on Njoku, with three models I trust projecting him well over 33.5 receiving yards, including:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 36.4 receiving yards
- Stokastic’s Player Props Tool: 39 receiving yards
- @JonPGH’s stat projections: 36 receiving yards
That gives us enough value to bet the over on this PrizePicks prop.
Pick: Over 33.5 receiving yards
Over/Under 38.5 Rushing Yards
It’s no secret that New England struggles against mobile quarterbacks. Justin Fields dominated them on the ground (82 yards) and Lamar Jackson hit triple digits (107 yards).
Josh Allen is a dual-threat quarterback who has punished the Patriots. While he stayed well under this number in the first Patriots-Bills matchup earlier this season, it was partially the result of a Thursday Night Football game on the road in some weird weather. There weren’t that many available yards.
In the two previous games, Allen rushed for 64 and 66 yards, respectively, on 18 total attempts. The Patriots are a good coverage team, but they have issues keeping up with Buffalo’s weapons while keeping Allen contained.
And you can’t spy Allen because of his monstrous frame and ability to bully through tacklers. He’s simply a mismatch nightmare.
Buffalo is almost impossible to defend when they fully leverage Josh Allen's ability to run the football. They can incorporate all the spread gun runs on top of a conventional dropback pass game. Couple examples… Pin & Pull Q attached Bubble Screen & Counter Bash. pic.twitter.com/nCszrNWF0N
— James Light (@JamesALight) January 21, 2022
Expectedly, Allen has also bullied his way through most other defenses. He’s cashed over 40.5 rushing yards in 11 of 15 games this season, including three straight.
Moreover, Allen loves running all over Highmark Stadium. He’s cashed this number in five of the last six in Buffalo, averaging 52.8 rush yards per game during this stretch, maxing out with 84 against Minnesota.
Two of the projection systems mentioned above are high on Allen:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 48 rushing yards
- Stokastic’s Player Props Tool: 48.6 rushing yards
Allen is in for a big rushing day, and I’ll bet that happens on PrizePicks.
Pick: Over 38.5 rush yards