NFL Predictions Week 5: Data-Driven Pick for Packers vs Raiders

NFL Predictions Week 5: Data-Driven Pick for Packers vs Raiders

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Nick Giffen

This game features two high-powered offenses that can rally from a multiscore deficit. The Bills rank second in offensive Expected Score while the Jaguars rank 10th.

Neither team has attempted a 2-point conversion this year, though the Jaguars ranked sixth last year in 2-point attempt rate. However, as the underdog team, their underlying 2-point attempt rate may come in handy should they need to come from behind.

In addition, both teams feature kickers that are solid at extra points.

Tyler Bass’ career rate of 97.7% is well above the NFL average, and Brandon McManus has been a shade above average over the last three years and perfect since joining Jacksonville. With no weather concerns in London, that should help even more.

There’s value in this bet at anything above +1325.

Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1480)

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By Billy Ward

Last week, I took a stab at the highest scoring game prop and fell just short on the Bears-Broncos game that featured 59 total points. I was a Bears field goal away from going to overtime.

This week, I’m taking the opposite approach on a game with a similarly wide range of outcomes.

The Panthers-Lions game has a middling total of 44 points, with Detroit expected to account for the bulk of that as 10-point favorites.

However, Detroit is likely to be without top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (doubtful), and could also be without rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (also doubtful). That could put a major damper on the Lions' offensive expectations in what already projects to be a slow and cautious, game. Detroit ranks 31st in pass rate over expectation this season, with Carolina at 25th.

Given how poorly the Panthers offense has played this season – and the surprising success of the Lions defense – something like a 17-7 Lions win is firmly in the range of outcomes.

The +850 line on DraftKings doesn’t count the London game between the Jaguars and Bills, while the +900 at FanDuel does. I prefer the DraftKings line, as I could see a reduction in scoring in Jags-Bills due to the travel difficulties of playing in London.

Pick: Lowest Scoring Game (+850)

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By Nick Giffen

Montgomery grabbed two short receptions in Week 4 with the Lions leading by two possessions. However, this came against a Packers team that has given up the seventh-most pass attempts to running backs.

Carolina has a similar ratio of plays leading by seven or more to plays trailing by seven or more as Green Bay, yet has given up the seventh-fewest targets per game to RBs.

Montgomery has caught all three of his targets so far this year, which is obviously going to regress at some point.

Even with pass-catching back Jahmyr Gibbs doubtful, backup Craig Reynolds has proven himself in limited time as a pass-catching back, hauling in nine of 10 targets last year in just 116 snaps. There should still be value here thanks to the Panthers funneling passes away from running backs.

I have this closer to -150 and would bet it to -135.

Pick: David Montgomery Under 2.5 Receptions (-120)

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By Billy Ward

There were two games I was considering here — this one and Texans-Falcons. I was expecting to have to weigh the difference between a better projection but a worse line in the Saints-Patriots game, since it has a total under 40 and just a one-point spread.

That turned out not to be the case, with Saints vs. Patriots being priced slightly better on the "no" side at +140 compared to +135 in the other game, which creates massive value for the "no" bet.

Even disregarding the spread, all games with totals under 40 have seen the "no" side of this prop hit just over half of the time in my data set, with true odds of -108. That automatically makes this bet playable.

However, we also know that this prop correlates more heavily to the spread, with tighter spreads favoring the “no." I didn’t get granular enough with my database to have numbers on spreads of 1 or 0 specifically (since the sample size is fairly small) but spreads of two or less have true odds of +130 on this prop.

That’s including games of higher totals as well (which favor the “yes” side), so when combining the two inputs here, the “no” side should be favored fairly easily, making the +140 at DraftKings a great bet – and I’d also take the +135 in Texans-Falcons, though the value is considerably lower.

Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+140)

By Nick Giffen

The Monday Night Football showdown between these two teams may be destined for overtime.

Packers vs. Raiders features the battle of the Carlson kicking brothers: Anders for Green Bay and Daniel for Las Vegas.

Daniel Carlson is just a shade above league average at making extra points since the Raiders moved to Las Vegas, while Anders Carlson has yet to miss an extra point in his young career.

The biggest worry in this game is each teams’ 2-point tendencies. The Packers have attempted 2-point conversions at the third-highest rate this year, but were just 19th in this category last year. The Raiders have hovered around league average during Josh McDaniels' tenure with the team.

I like to keep a 10% edge from my model projection to the line offered. With +1385 as fair value in my model, that means there’s only value here down to +1525.

Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1550)