Bills vs Packers Prediction | Sunday Night Football
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
Bills vs Packers Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 47 -107o / -107u | -450 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -105 | 47 -107o / -107u | +350 |
If it looks weird to see Aaron Rodgers as a double-digit underdog, that's because it has never happened before in the regular season.
In fact, he's only closed as more than a six-point underdog three times in his career. Oddly enough, all three came on this exact weekend against teams with either one or no losses:
- 2021: Won outright against 7-0 cards on road without Adams/Lazard.
- 2018: Lost to 7-0 Rams on road by two on a late field goal.
- 2010: Beat the 5-1 Jets by a final score of 9-0.
Rodgers was a field goal away from going 3-0 straight-up (SU) in those games, but did cover each with ease. Can he pull off another Houdini act in Buffalo against the best team in the league?
Packers +10.5 | Bills -10.5
On paper, this looks like a blowout. The Bills are coming off of a bye, while the Packers will be playing in their fourth stadium in four weeks. Green Bay has looked completely inept in all three phases, while Buffalo has looked like a juggernaut all season outside of a fluke loss in Miami where it dominated statistically.
However, games aren't played on paper. This is still the NFL where we see unexpected results each week, even more so this season. So, which is the side here? Let's take a closer look.
Packers vs. Bills Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Bills match up statistically:
Packers vs. Bills DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 1 | |
| Pass DVOA | 14 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 14 | 1 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 25 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 11 | |
| Rush DVOA | 28 | 31 | |
I actually think this is a decent schematic matchup for the Packers. Even with lack of continuity on the offensive line and a completely decimated wide receiver room, the Packers might be able to efficiently move the ball by leaning on its excellent backfield and short-passing attack against a still less than 100% Bills secondary (Tre White still not back).
Currently, the passing game has zero explosiveness without Davante Adams, but Buffalo always does an excellent job of limiting explosive plays. The Bills also can generate pressure without blitzing as well as any team in the league. With all of the moving parts on the Green Bay offensive line, Rodgers has been under constant pressure, forced to get the ball out quicker than ever.
Even with all of those problems, Green Bay still ranks sixth in Success Rate on offense. It's not been as bad as most think.
The Packers just haven't been able to do anything on late downs, which are much less predictive. On the season, they rank 32nd in EPA per Play on late downs and are also dead last in fourth-down conversion rate. It's reasonable to expect some positive variance in those areas moving forward.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers run defense has been absolutely atrocious, ranking dead last in many categories. However, that might not be as much of an issue against the pass-happy Bills.
I think any team would be happy if Buffalo decided to run the ball, but it also hasn't been able to do it effectively this year, ranking 28th DVOA Rush offense and 29th EPA per Rush.
The Packers still have a top 10 pass defense that can match up as well as you can against the Bills aerial attack. Similar to the offense, the defense has been a bit unlucky and perception is a lot worse than reality. It's a unit that actually ranks in the top-3 in drive success rate.
Betting Picks
I'm going to attempt to catch the falling knife with the Packers here. I think this may be the bottom of the market for a team I haven't bet this season in a perfect buy low / sell high spot.
Green Bay has lost and failed to cover in three straight games. Historically, that's been a pretty good signal in the NFL market (58% ATS past 30 years and a bit better when catching double digits).
I also wouldn't be surprised if the Bills actually came out a bit flat after a two-week break following that massive win at Kansas City. Meanwhile, maybe the Packers need this exact situation to play a little looser in a spot where nobody gives them a chance.
The Bills have been great as a favorite with Josh Allen under center (12-5-2 when laying more than 6 points), but I just think this number is too high in a game where the Packers actually might have some matchup advantages based on how both teams are constructed. The Packers also play as slow as any team in the league, which only helps as a double-digit dog.
It's also much harder to cover these bigger numbers in the lower-scoring environment in 2022. Coming into the week, underdogs of 4+ points were an astounding 37-18 (67.3%) ATS.
I may end up with egg on my face, but I'm riding with the Pack. It also won't hurt to have a Hall of Fame quarterback on my side if Green Bay is trailing by 14-17 late in the game with the ball.
Quickslip: Packers +10.5
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