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Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence: Chiefs vs Jaguars Player Prop Picks

Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence: Chiefs vs Jaguars Player Prop Picks article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Trevor Lawrence (right).

  • The Chiefs and Jaguars open the NFL Divisional Round on Saturday afternoon.
  • Patrick Mahomes faces the up-and-coming Trevor Lawrence and a surging Jacksonville team.
  • Tanner McGrath lays out how bettors should go about picking the two star QBs.

Our first NFL divisional playoff game features two of the more intriguing young quarterbacks in the NFL, as we look for Chiefs vs. Jaguars player props. The ever-improving Trevor Lawrence travels to Arrowhead to battle Patrick Mahomes at the height of his powers.

Remember, there’s always value in the player props market. By prop-shopping, I’ve found ways to bet on these superstar quarterbacks in Saturday afternoon’s game.

If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting is unavailable.

Let’s look at how to bet on Lawrence and Mahomes in the Jaguars vs. Chiefs game.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Props

Looking at the matchup, I can’t get over how good the rushing matchup is for both quarterbacks.

Projections aren’t necessarily high on either quarterback’s rushing prop. Still, I think the schematic matchups, defenses, and historical trends all are pushing me toward expecting big days on the ground for both quarterbacks.

Let’s go step-by-step through this matchup.

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Both Defenses Allow Rushing Yards To Opposing QBs

The Chiefs were bottom five in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks this season. They consistently allowed opposing quarterbacks to cash their rushing props.

Notable quarterbacks to fly past their rushing prop against the Chiefs in the second half of the season include:

  • Week 9: Malik Willis (40 yards, 12.5 O/U)
  • Week 11: Justin Herbert (17 yards, 12.5 O/U)
  • Week 13: Joe Burrow (46 yards, 15.5 O/U)
  • Week 14: Russell Wilson (57 yards, 14.5 O/U)
  • Week 15: Davis Mills (33 yards, 5.5 O/U)
  • Week 17: Russell Wilson (27 yards, 15.5 O/U)
  • Week 18: Jarrett Stidham (50 yards, 13.5 O/U)

Meanwhile, the Jaguars allowed the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. They also consistently allow opposing quarterbacks to cash their rushing props.

Notable quarterbacks to fly past their rushing prop against the Jaguars this year include:

  • Week 7: Daniel Jones (107 yards, 32.5 O/U)
  • Week 8: Russell Wilson (17 yards, 15.5 O/U)
  • Week 12: Lamar Jackson (89 yards, 57.5 O/U)
  • Week 14: Ryan Tannehill (16 yards, 12.5 O/U)
  • Week 15: Dak Prescott (20 yards, 13.5 O/U)
  • Week 17: Davis Mills (33 yards, 8.5 O/U)
  • Week 18: Joshua Dobbs (32 yards, 14.5 O/U)
  • Wild Card Round: Justin Herbert (12 yards, 8.5 O/U)

Both teams have similar characteristics that produce high-rushing games for quarterbacks.

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Defenses Are High-Pressure, Poor-Tackling

The Jaguars and Chiefs finished fourth and fifth in pressure rate this season, respectively. The notable name is Chris Jones, who finished as PFF’s top defensive lineman. But the Jags have two solid pass rushers in Arden Key and Josh Allen, alongside rookie Travon Walker, who trended up throughout the season.

However, both teams finished in the back half of the league in PFF’s tackling grades. The Jaguars were terrible, finishing 31st.

It all results in big, mobile quarterbacks being put in scrambling situations and breaking big runs against teams that don’t tackle in the open field. It’s perfect for guys like Lawrence and Mahomes.

Both Offenses Are Pass-Heavy, Fast-Paced

Both the Jaguars and Chiefs throw the ball well over 60% of the time, with the Chiefs topping out at 66.9%.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Jaguars rank third and fourth in situation-neutral pace, respectively.

This results in a trillion passing plays called, providing more chances for both these quarterbacks to take off and scramble. There’s a higher chance that both these quarterbacks can accumulate rushing yards with the type of game script the coaches call.

Both quarterbacks generally take advantage, leading us to our next point.

Both QBs Are Big, Mobile & Hit Their Overs

Lawrence is 6-foot-6, 213 lbs but moves like a gazelle. There is no reason for him to be as mobile as this:

Trevor Lawrence eclipses the 29.5 rushing yards offered by @FDSportsbook easily in the explosive touchdown run@ClemsonFB | #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/RoP3yvg9sF

— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) December 29, 2019

Lawrence failed to cash his rushing prop in his final three games but was on a tear beforehand. He eclipsed over 20 rushing yards in seven of 11 games in-between Week 5 and 16, finishing the season with 291 yards and five touchdowns at 4.7 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, everybody has seen what Mahomes does on a football field. He seemingly has one play per game where he eludes every rusher and then tiptoes down the line, balancing on his pinky toe, for a 15-yard game.

Oh, look, here’s one now:

.@PatrickMahomes traveled 64 yards on this unforgettable 27-yard TD run. 😱 (powered by @awscloud) pic.twitter.com/cXEmTSfzSL

— NFL (@NFL) July 22, 2020

Mahomes eclipsed over 25 rushing yards in eight of his final 15 games this season, finishing his year with over 350 rushing yards at a whopping 5.9 yards per attempt.

Most importantly, both quarterbacks crushed their rushing prop when they faced off in Week 10. Mahomes had a rushing yards line of 22.5 and finished with 39, while Lawrence had a rushing yards line of 14.5 and finished with 26.

I expect more of the same in the divisional round.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks

Check out our Action Labs Player Props Tool to find the best available rushing yards line for both quarterbacks.

If you’re still interested in PrizePicks – as you should be – Lawrence’s rushing prop line is set at 15.5, while Mahomes is at a relatively low 22.5.

Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

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