Patriots vs. Jets Odds & Picks: Can Sam Darnold and Co. Cover This Spread?

Patriots vs. Jets Odds & Picks: Can Sam Darnold and Co. Cover This Spread? article feature image

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Darnold, Tom Brady

  • The New England Patriots head to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets as 9-point favorites.
  • Are Sam Darnold and Co. being undervalued? Our experts analyze the odds and make a spread pick.

Patriots at Jets Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Patriots -9
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Sunday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Sam Darnold led the New York Jets to a 24-22 win over the Dallas Cowboys in his return last week, but the public isn’t buying that victory enough to trust the Jets to cover this 9-point spread: 66% of tickets are backing the New England Patriots in Monday night’s AFC East showdown.

But is the public right?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring a look at Sean Koerner’s projected odds as well as a staff spread pick.

Monday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

The Patriots are slightly banged up, ruling out Josh Gordon (knee) and Rex Burkhead (foot), so Sony Michel and James White will continue to see the bulk of the running back work. Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) and Julian Edelman (chest) are both listed as questionable. Dorsett could go either way, but I would expect him and Edelman to both suit up with Gordon ruled out.

The Jets, meanwhile, are a mess — 13 players, including five offensive linemen, are listed as either questionable or doubtful.

Two linemen unlikely to play are Kelechi Osemele (shoulder/knee) and Kelvin Beachum (ankle), both listed as doubtful. Chris Herndon (hamstring, doubtful) will also be out at least one more week. Linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play, which is good news for the Jets since he hasn’t suited up since Week 1. They’ll need all the help they can get against the Patriots. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots Run Defense vs. Jets Run Game

3.5, 3.2, 1.9, 2.9, 3.6 — those are Bell’s yards per carry averages in each game as a member of the Jets. The only bright spot on the line thus far has been guard Alex Lewis, who has earned a 76.8 Pro Football Focus grade (eighth among guards), but he’s questionable to play after being added to the injury report with a neck issue on Friday.

Trading for Osemele was supposed to help, but his PFF run-blocking grade (53.8) is lower than the amount of millions he initially signed with the Raiders for (58.5). He’s doubtful as he disputes the team over whether he needs shoulder surgery.

With Beachum (ankle) is doubtful and center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) and guard Brian Winters (shoulder/knee) are questionable, but even if they all play, it won’t make much of a difference — none have graded out better than 31st at their respective positions (Kalil).

Meanwhile, the Patriots are complimenting their smothering pass defense with a unit that’s allowing opposing backs to gain just 3.45 yards per carry, the third best in the league. Frank Gore (17-109-0) was the only back to top 40 rushing yards against New England, and he did it behind an offensive line that’s ranked first in adjusted line yards — the farthest cry possible from the Jets’ 32nd-ranked group.

fantasy defense rankings-week 6-2019
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty

What makes the Pats run D so good is that it’s a complete team effort that extends to the secondary: PFF has issued top-20 run-defense grades to safeties Devin McCourty (sixth) and Duron Harmon (20th) as well as cornerbacks Jason McCourty (15th) and Stephon Gilmore (20th).

According to our Bet Labs data, Patriots road unders are 20-7 since the start of 2016, so a wager on the over may hinge on the Patriots getting all the way there themselves. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -10
  • Projected Total: 43

Darnold looked sharp in his return from a bout of mono, but now he gets the toughest test in football against the league’s best defense. This is a not bet for me. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Patriots are 4-2 against the spread, covering by an average of 9.8 points per game. Brady and Co. are making it look easy, but if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet against teams that have covered the spread by a big margin.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 310-237-16 (56.7%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,262 following this strategy.

Not only does history point to taking the points with the Jets, but sharps are on New York, too. More than 60% of spread tickets have been placed on the Patriots as of writing (see live public betting data here), but the line has moved from New England -9.5 to -9. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Patriots -9

I’m gonna go against the PRO system recommendation here.

In the history of our Bet Labs database (since 2003), the Patriots are 157-97-8 ATS (21.3% ROI).

I feel like that trend on its own should be enough. Bill Belichick gets the job done. On average, the typical outcome for a Pats game is a cover of +3.88 points. That’s a massive margin.

And Belichick is even less generous against poor opponents. When facing teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season, the Patriots are 110-58-5 ATS (27.9% ROI). On average, they’ve scored 4.79 points more than their non-playoff opponents.

Under the Belichick regime, the Pats have been a “no mercy” franchise. When they face bad teams, they don’t just win. They lay it on. They punish their opponents. They humiliate them for even bothering to step onto the field.

In other words, they cover.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Pats relative to the Jets will have three extra days to rest and prepare because they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

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