Steelers vs Rams Odds, Spread Pick: Bet Against Overrated Pittsburgh in Week 7
Getty Images. Pictured: Kenny Pickett (left) and Matthew Stafford (right).
Steelers vs Rams Odds, Spread Pick | NFL Week 7
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Steelers vs. Rams odds for NFL Week 7 are trending toward Rams -3.5, although a few sportsbooks are holding Rams -3 (FanDuel) as of 3:16 p.m. ET. The game total over/under can be had at either 43.5 or 44 depending on your preferred sportsbook.
This line may make sense if you are just looking at overall records (Steelers 3-2, Rams 3-3), but Pittsburgh has barely been scraping by this season and its win total does not represent this team. After digging into the numbers, it appears that this is not fully baked into the spread of this game as the Steelers are seemingly still getting credit for their past instead of what they actually are.
That being said, trends for Pittsburgh as an underdog are kind. Per Evan Abrams, the Steelers are 56-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, making him the most profitable coach as a 'dog in the last 20 years.
Will that stay true on Sunday? Let's preview this matchup and make our Steelers vs. Rams prediction.
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If the Steelers finish with a winning record, it will once again be a masterpiece by head coach Mike Tomlin. Simply put, this team has been bad, particularly on offense. However, they have been winning games more often than not as they sit with a 3-2 record.
This weekend, they travel to Los Angeles and find themselves tagged as three-point underdogs, but in my opinion, this number should be higher.
In every game that the Steelers have played this season, their opponent has put up a better success rate and series conversion rate. Pittsburgh was beaten handily by the 49ers and Texans, and came out with one-score wins against the Browns, Raiders and Ravens despite being outgained in all of them.
The Steelers offense has arguably been the worst in the league this year. They rank 32nd in success rate, 32nd in available yards gained and 29th in EPA per play.
While Kenny Pickett has been awful, his offensive line has not done him any favors. The Steelers' offensive line has a PFF pass blocking grade of 34.3 this season, ahead of only the Giants.
This will likely not get much easier against the Rams, who have the ninth-best PFF pass rushing grade and rank 17th in pass rush win rate. Pittsburgh is also 27th in run block win rate, hampering their backfield and causing Pickett to face a lot of third and longs.
The Steelers defense has been serviceable this year but they've had less success than they typically do. Rather, they've relied on a few big plays to cash in these victories instead of suffocating the opposing offense for the duration of the game.
Pittsburgh ranks 16th in success rate on defense and 19th in passing success rate allowed. The Steelers are also 19th in available yards allowed. Rushing explosiveness has also been a problem as they rank 21st in EPA per rush allowed.
Bet Pittsburgh vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel
The Rams will be without their top two running backs, but in the past, they have shown the ability to simply swap in others without missing a beat.
What really matters for the Rams is that Cooper Kupp is back. After making his return just two weeks ago, he has already racked up 15 catches for 266 yards and a touchdown.
Pittsburgh has allowed a receiver to go for 100+ yards in four games this season, and it would have been all five if not for the barrage of drops from the Ravens. According to PFF’s matchup tool, Kupp has the best WR/DB matchup of the week. I expect Kupp to have another big game.
Los Angeles’ offense has been much better than many expected, even without Kupp at the beginning of the year. L.A. ranks sixth in EPA per play, eighth in available yards gained and 10th in success rate.
The Rams have been solid on the defensive side as well. They rank 11th in success rate and ninth in rushing success rate. However, they have consistently fallen victim to big plays, as they also rank 22nd in EPA per play allowed.
Steelers vs. Rams
Betting Picks & Predictions
I’m honestly not sure why this line is still at Rams -3. The Steelers appear to be getting too much credit for turnovers forced and big plays made by their defense instead of what they have shown on a down-to-down basis.
This Pittsburgh team has been outmatched in every game this season and I don’t expect this matchup to be any different. Los Angeles is better on offense and should be able to attack the Steelers secondary with ease.
Coming off a bye, there is hope for Pittsburgh’s offense to show improvement with an extra week of rest and preparation under its belt, but with Matt Canada still at the helm, I would not count on a dramatic difference coming any time soon.
With this number still at three, I love the Rams and would take them at anything under 4. Be sure to use our live NFL odds page to make sure you get the best number.
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