NFL Week 7 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 7 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

Another week and the Falcons are still undefeated against the spread. The Eagles are still undefeated straight up. Atlanta's an underdog again, while Philadelphia gets a bye week. Let's look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 7 of the Action Network's NFL betting primer.

1. The Big Apple!

The Giants (5-1) and Jets (4-2) are the two most profitable teams on the moneyline through six weeks this season.

  • A $100 bettor would be up $812 on the Giants and $603 on the Jets.
  • The last time both New York teams combined for nine wins through Week 6? Back in 2010.
  • The Giants are 4-0 SU as underdogs this season. New York is only the third team in the last 20 years to go 4-0 SU or better as underdogs through their first six games: 2012 Seahawks and 2009 Broncos.
    + Jets are the second team in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record through six games despite being an underdog in all six (2001 Browns).

2. From The Six.

The Atlanta Falcons are 6-0 against the spread this season, the only undefeated team ATS in the NFL.

They are the third team to start 6-0 ATS in the last decade:

  • 2021 Cowboys
  • 2018 Chiefs

Thinking ahead: Only four teams have started 7-0 ATS since 1978:

3. Can't Cross Over.

The Jaguars have had their share of struggles through the years, but this is next level. The Jaguars face the New York Giants from the NFC this week.

+ The Jaguars have lost 18 consecutive games SU vs. the NFC dating back to 2018 (they are 2-16 ATS in those games).

+ Since 2012, the Jaguars are 4-39 SU vs. the NFC (8-35 ATS).

+ Since 2009, the Jags are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS as favorites vs. the NFC.

4. Unhappy Times.

Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T., but right now, Tom and Tampa are on a skid.

Brady and the Bucs have lost four consecutive games against the spread. This is the first time that has happened to Brady since failing to cover nine in a row between his 2007-08 Super Bowl run through his injury in 2008, into his first two games of the 2009 season.

+ Teams on a 4+ game ATS losing streak as a double-digit favorite have won seven straight games SU (last loss? 2007-08 Patriots in Super Bowl vs. Giants).

5. Underdog Jimmy.

The 49ers are listed as home underdogs against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this week.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS as an underdog in his career. That is the best winning percentage by any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Oct. 23, 10 a.m. ET.

NFL Week 7

Click on a topic to skip ahead
Thursday Night Football
Saints 34, Cardinals 42
Market Movers
Biggest Week 7 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 7
The Big Picture
Stat Sheet, Futures Index, Data on Unders
Rapid Fire
Week 7 Game-by-Game Betting Notes
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 7
What's Next?
Early Week 8 Betting Trends

Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Oct. 20
8:20 p.m. ET
Saints Odds
Cardinals Odds
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Low, Low, Low…

The under is now 16-4 (80%) in the last 20 games on Thursday Night Football.

Unders in night games: 13-6 (Games at night since 2019: 107-75-3 to under)

Thursday Night Football Unders: 22-12 (64.7%) since 2020 (5-1 this season)
+ When total moves down on TNF: 40-28 (59%) since 2015.

Advantage or Disadvantage?

+ Teams coming off playing in Seattle have won 11 consecutive games SU and are 26-10 SU and 22-13-1 ATS since 2018.
+ Think there is a disadvantage coming off road game in Seattle + a short week? Teams are 4-1 SU since 2018.

Dalton or Winston?

+ Andy Dalton has played at home and then went to MST/PST four times in his career: 4-0 ATS (all with Bengals).

Primetime Records:

+ Dalton: 6-18 SU, 9-15 ATS (1-10 SU, 4-7 ATS as dog)

Dalton: started five PT games outside EST: 0-5 SU. Lost 117-34 in last three games in this spot.

Andy Dalton on the road in primetime (via @Bet_Labs):

• 1-12 straight up (lost 11 straight)
• 3-10 against the spread*

*Least profitable QB ATS on the road in primetime over the last 20 years.

— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) October 20, 2022

+ Winston: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS

+ If it is Winston at QB…

He’s 8-19-1 ATS (29.6%) as a favorite, failing to cover in five of his last six opportunities. He’s 26-23-3 ATS as an underdog.

Kliff & Kyler…

  • As a duo, they've lost five straight games SU and ATS.
  • Including, 0-3 SU/ATS in primetime as favorites.
  • Overall, they are just 10-12 SU as favorites (6-8 SU as home favorites)

Kliff Kingsbury is 9-17-1 SU, 10-17 ATS at home as coach of the Cardinals, the fourth-least profitable coach ATS at home in his tenure.

Kyler Murray is 25-27-1 2H ATS. 19-11-1 as underdog, 6-16 as favorite.

Second Half Issues. Kyler is 5-12-1 against the second half spread at home since 2020, the second-least profitable QB in that span.

Struggles Out West. Kyler Murray career ATS by timezone:
PST/MST: 14-20-2 ATS | EST/CST: 13-4 ATS

Great Pass D. The Cardinals have held 20 of the last 22 opposing starting quarterbacks under their passing yards total.

We Had 'Em in the First Half.Opponents vs. Cardinals (by quarter) scoring through Week 6. Overall, Cardinals have been outscored, 142-114.

+ 1H: ARI 29, Opp 89 (outscored 41-3 in first quarter)

+ 2H/OT: ARI 85, Opp 53

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Market Movers

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 7 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 7)

72% of bets at Chargers
72% of bets at 49ers
72% of bets at Panthers

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 7
(The most popular bet games for Week 7, excluding Thursday Night Football)

90,000 betting tickets
88,000 betting tickets
81,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 7

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines):

(+7.5 to -1.5)
9-pt move at Broncos
(-5.5 to -13.5)
8-pt move at Panthers
(+10 to +6.5)
3.5-pt move at Bengals

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The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Sharp bet
Bears +8 | Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Bet %
NE: 79% of Bets
Handle %
CHI: 56% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.

Jets at Broncos Projections

DEN ML (-157)DEN (-115)+7.7% (A- Grade)

Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.

PRO Systems

Bet Against Public After Bad Game. Don't bet based off what you just saw. This is an opportunity to go against the grain.
Week 7 picks -> PRO Access

PRO Props

Top Props for Week 6: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
Bet: Under 29.5 receiving yards (+100)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.

» Return to the table of contents «

The Big Picture

NEW ADDITION: Every week we will update 1st quarter, 1st half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 7, it's all about New York football.
(Odds from before Week 1 to current)

SB: 150-1 to 50-1

SB: 150-1 to 80-1

Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.

2022 Season Betting Update
Best Teams
ATS: Falcons 6-0, Giants 5-1
Moneyline: Giants 5-1 (+$812 on $100/game)
Overs: Browns 5-1, Lions 4-1
Unders: Teams tied at 5-1:
This Season: 38-55-1 SU (+$1,037), 55-38-1 ATS
Underdogs of over a FG: 38-19 ATS
Big Favorites
+ Favorites of 7 pts or more: 12-6-1 SU, 6-13 ATS
+The least profitable start for TD favorites through 6 games in the past 20 years.
The Public
(Public = 51% of tickets or more)
51%+: 36-55-1 ATS
60%+: 14-27 ATS
66%+: 7-15 ATS
+ The worst start through 6 games for the public in the last 20 years.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.

Where Did All The Scoring Go?

One of the biggest stories of the season are the unders.

In 2022, unders are 57-37 (60.6%), the best start for unders since 1994 (through 6 games).

Only five teams are above .500 in the over department this year — the Browns (5-1), the Lions (4-1), the Raiders (3-1-1), the Saints (4-2) and the Jaguars (4-2).

Here are your highest under hit percentages through six games in the Wild Card era.

Highest Pct Games Under – Through 6 games since 1990

1991: 54-28-1 (65.9%)
1994: 50-32 (61%)
2022: 57-37 (60.6%)

Fade Teams Coming Off a Game in a "Party City"…

Carolina, Cincinnati and San Francisco are coming off road games in “party cities” last week.

In the past 20 years, teams coming off playing in a “party city” — which we are designating as Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Atlanta, New Orleans and Miami — are 240-330-15 against the spread (42.1%).

Teams coming off a road game in a "party city" are 4-10-1 ATS this season and 50-77-4 ATS since 2019.

Week 7 Matches: Panthers (vs. Buccaneers), Bengals (vs. Falcons) and 49ers (vs. Chiefs).

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Rapid Fire

Lions at Cowboys

Roar Rest. The Lions are 11-7-1 SU and 14-5 ATS off a bye (13 days or more) over the last 20 years. The most profitable team ATS off bye in the last 20 years.

Detroit is 6-3-1 SU and 9-1 ATS on the road off a bye.

Tough Break. Lions have lost three straight coming off a bye. Teams listed as an underdog on a 3+ game SU losing streak off a bye are 24-44-2 SU in the last 20 years, making a $100 bettor $2,163.

Mike Drop.Mike McCarthy is 22-18 ATS as coach of the Cowboys. He's actually the most profitable Dallas coach since 2003.

Cowboys ATS by coach last 20 years

Mike McCarthy 22-18 ATS ($252)
Bill Parcells 30-30-6 ATS
Jason Garrett 76-77-4 ATS
Wade Phillips 27-32 ATS

All About Stars. The over is 82-70-3 in Cowboys home games in the last two decades, but the advantage is in the stars.

Dallas over in home games last 20 years:

60-47 w/ Tony Romo & Dak Prescott
22-23-3 w/ every other QB

Hear Me Roar. Lions games are going over the total by 13.2 PPG this season, highest margin in the NFL.

Uphill Battle For an Upset…

+ Jared Goff has lost 8 straight games SU vs. teams averaging fewer than 20 PPG.

+ Goff has had his issues pulling the upset in his career.

Favorite: 38-17 SU, 28-25-2 ATS
Underdog: 10-27-1 SU 20-18 ATS

Of 118 QBs since 2016, Goff is ranked 113th in ML profit as a dog.


Giants at Jaguars

All About The Dogs…

+ The 5-1 Giants are listed as underdogs against the 2-4 Jaguars in Week 7.

In the last 20 years, teams with a 80%+ win pct have only been listed as an underdog vs. a team with a win pct of 33% or less five times in Week 7 or later, they are 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS.

Cardinals last year in Seattle did this (first time since 2010). Arizona won, 23-13.

+ Giants are 5-1 SU/ATS entering Week 7. In the last 20 years, teams winning and covering at least 80% of their games have only been listed as an underdog 19 times in Week 7 or later. They are 10-9 SU, 12-6-1 ATS.

+ The Lions (1999) and Jaguars (2004) are the only teams to win 5 games straight up as underdogs in the first 7 games of the year.

The Jets and Giants are both underdogs on Sunday, and with wins, would also match that mark with 5 upset wins in their first 7 games.

More of a Home Thing. Here is how the under performs in Daniel Jones' starts…

  • 17-6 at home
  • 9-10-1 on road

Welcome To The Road. Daniel Jones has loved himself away from home.

+ Daniel Jones career road/neutral: 14-6 ATS (#4 of 87 QBs since 2019)

Favored Again. The Jaguars have been favored just four times since the start of the 2020 season (a total of 39 games). They are 0-4 SU, losing each of the games by a TD or more.

+ Jags are the only team to be listed as a public side in all six games this year, 2-4 ATS.

A Tough Past…

+ The Jaguars have lost 18 consecutive games SU vs. the NFC dating back to 2018 (2-16 ATS).
+ Since 2012, the Jags are 4-39 SU vs. the NFC (8-35 ATS).
+ Since 2009, the Jags are 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS as favorites vs. the NFC.

It's Even Worse…

+ The Jaguars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games.
+ Jags are 4-14 SU at home since 2020.

Can't Forget Trevor…

+ Trevor Lawrence 1H ATS: 9-14 ATS (0-3 as a favorite)
+ Trevor Lawrence: 5-18 SU, 7-16 ATS — the least profitable QB ATS since he was drafted in 2021.


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Colts at Titans

Buy The Colts on the Road?

+ Under Frank Reich, Colts have played consecutive games against divisional opponents seven times, and they are 5-2 ATS. After a SU win? 3-0 ATS.

+ Frank Reich on road vs. opponents .500 or better: 13-10 SU, 17-6 ATS (#1 of 61 coaches since being hired).

+ Colts have won three straight games SU as underdogs. Frank Reich & Matt Ryan are 2-0 SU as underdogs as a duo.

The Not So Good…

+ Frank Reich vs. AFC South: 13-15 ATS | teams not in the AFC South: 25-18-2 ATS.

Reich vs. Titans/Jaguars: 6-12-1 ATS | vs. Texans: 7-3 ATS

+ The Colts are 5-11 ATS vs. the AFC South over the last 3 seasons, the second-least profitable team vs. division (Browns are the worst).

Road Unders. Six straight Colts road games have gone under the total.

The Ups & Downs of Matty Ice…

+ Matt Ryan has faced three teams coming off a bye since 2018: 3-0 SU/ATS
+ Ryan is 3-9-1 ATS after a SU win since 2020.
+ Matt Ryan is 52-36 to the under since 2017, the most profitable QB to the under in that span.
+ Seven of Ryan’s last eight road starts have gone under the total.
+ Ryan hasn’t thrown 2+ pass TD on the road in 8 consecutive games.

Mike Loves His Rest…

+ Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill are 14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS as a duo vs. AFC South.
+ Vrabel/Tannehill vs. Colts: 5-1 SU/ATS (all vs. Frank Reich).
+ Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU/ATS off a bye week in the regular season.
+ Ryan Tannehill has covered his last six regular season starts off a bye week.


Falcons at Bengals

Welcome To The Club. Falcons are 6-0 against the spread this season.

+ 6-0 ATS teams last decade: '22 ATL, '21 DAL, '18 KC.
+ 6-0 ATS teams last 20 yrs: '22 ATL, '21 DAL, '18 KC, '09 NO, '09 DEN, '08 TENN, '07 NE, '03 MIN.

Only four teams have started 7-0 ATS last 40 years: '21 DAL, '18 KC, '08 TEN, '07 NE

A 6-0 ATS Unlike Any Other. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS and just winning their games by an average of +1.7 PPG this year. Last 20 years, the previous low margin for 6-0 ATS teams was +7.2 PPG by the Chiefs in 2018.

Hot in Cincinnati. The Bengals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games. Bengals have covered four straight games.

Joe's Corner…

+ Burrow career: 18-17-1 SU, 23-13 ATS (+$806). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Lookahead spread had Bengals -10. Now it’s fewer than 10. Burrow is 8-2 ATS when the line moves against him in his career.
+ Burrow is 10-4 ATS vs. teams scoring 24+ PPG, covering the spread in 6 in a row.
+ Burrow vs. AFC: 15-11 SU, 18-8 ATS | vs. NFC: 3-6-1 SU, 5-5 ATS

Getting Close. The Falcons are 1.5 wins away from their win total (4.5).

Dog Eat Dog. The Falcons are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games this season (Jets).

Resurgence. ATS darling, Marcus Mariota.

Marcus Mariota ATS:

  • 2022: 6-0 ATS
  • 2015-21: 26-35-2 ATS – fourth-least profitable QB in NFL.

Can He Keep It Up? Mariota after a SU win: 11-20-1 ATS (109 of 111 QBs since 2015).


Browns at Ravens

History Favors Baltimore.

+ Ravens vs. Browns all-time: 32-12 SU, 26-19-1 ATS

At home: 16-3 SU, 10-9 ATS last 20 years (18-5 SU, 11-12 ATS all-time)

Crazy Ride.In their three losses, the Ravens (3-3 SU) have only trailed for 120 total seconds.

Tough Game Ahead.John Harbaugh is just 11-19-2 ATS after a SU loss when facing a divisional opponent in the next game as coach of the Ravens. This makes him the least profitable coach ATS in the NFL over the last 20 years.

The Good & Bad with Lamar…

+ Lamar Jackson: 13-17 ATS at home | 18-11 ATS on road

10-17 ATS as a home favorite (fourth-worst since 2018; 69th of 72).

+ Lamar has covered the last five games vs. Browns (4-0 ATS vs. Stefanski)

Lamar vs. AFC North: 12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS

+ Lamar: 22-26 ATS as favorite | 9-2 ATS as underdog

The First Half King…

+ Lamar Jackson against the first half spread: 37-20-2 ATS (64.9%) – #2 of 235 QBs (#1: Joe Flacco)

+ Lamar is 12-4-1 1H ATS vs. AFC North.

+ 1H ATS after a win: 28-13-1 ATS | After a loss: 5-7-1 ATS

Can The Browns Pull The Upset?

+ Kevin Stefanski career with the Browns:

  • Favorite: 17-8 SU, 8-17 ATS
  • Dog: 4-11 SU, 8-7 ATS

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Buccaneers at Panthers

Familiar Ground. Home division dogs are 52-37 since 2020.

Back From L.A. Panthers are traveling from PST to EST this week. Teams going from PST to EST are 84-56-3 against the first half spread since 2017.

…and it's gone. The true PST to EST disadvantage that once was is now gone.

  • 2003-12: 97-127-8 ATS
  • 2013-present: 118-109-6 ATS

Carolina Struggles…

+ Panthers are 1-28 SU and 5-24 ATS when their opponent scores 17 points or more since 2020.
+ Since Oct. 1, 2021, Panthers are 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games.
+ Panthers last 13 games with backup QB since 2019: 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS

Low, Low, Low.Any over/under below 42 is Tom Brady’s lowest total since playing the Bills in 2019 (39.5).

  • Brady w/ total of 42 or fewer last 20 years: 52-8 SU, 44-16-1 ATS
  • On road: 19-10 to the over | At home: 19-12-1 to the under

The Bucs-Panthers total is now down to 39…

This would be the lowest total in a Tom Brady game since a December 2010 matchup against the Bears at Soldier Field ❄️

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 21, 2022

+ The under is 3-0 in Bucs road games this season. Since 2016, the under is 34-23 in Tom Brady road games, third-most profitable QB to under in that span (Big Ben, Kyler).

Down Bad. Brady lost as a 10-point favorite against the Steelers on Sunday. In the last 20 years, Brady is 13-3 SU, 14-2 ATS after losing as a TD+ favorite in his previous game (2-0 SU/ATS with Bucs).

+ In the last 20 years, teams to lose as TD or higher favorites and are listed as TD+ favorites again are 48-19 SU, 32-35-1 ATS. Brady is 3-0 SU/ATS in that spot.

An Outlier. Over the last 20 years, the 2022 Bucs are just the fifth team to be listed as double-digit road favorites in consecutive games. 2022 Bucs are the only ones .500 or worse SU.

The others? 2021 Buccaneers, 2021 Bills, 2015 Steelers, 2009 Saints.

+ 21 BUF, 15 PIT lost their previous games (won/covered next game).

First Half vs. Second Half.Brady ATS since 2019: 28-34 1H | 37-24-1 2H

The Brady Corner…

+ Brady on the road after a SU loss last 20 years: 28-6 SU, 27-7 ATS
+ Brady vs. NFC South w/ Bucs: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS. With the Bucs, he’s 4-0 SU/ATS vs. Panthers and 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS vs. Panthers career.
+ Brady vs. teams on 3+ game losing streak: 28-5 SU, 21-13 ATS
+ Last 20 years, Brady is 31-5 SU, 23-15 ATS vs. teams with win pct of 20% or less.


Packers at Commanders

Wentz vs. Heinicke

The Commanders are turning to Taylor Heinicke this week. Let's compare…

Wentz: 46-45-1 SU, 44-48 ATS

+ 26-37 ATS since 2018 (104th of 106 QBs).
+ Since leaving Eagles: 11-12 SU. 12-11 ATS

Heinicke: 7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS

+ Washington backup QBs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games since 2019.

Leaving Chicago.After the Commanders beat the Bears in Chicago, they return home to face the Packers.

In the last 20 years, teams coming off a road game in Soldier Field are 90-57-2 ATS (61.2%). A $100 bettor would be up $2,877, most profitable previous road city in the last 20 years.

Too Much Time?Home underdogs off extended rest (10+ days): 22-55 SU (-$2,082), 30-45-2 ATS last decade.

Low Total Helps. Home underdogs with an over/under below 42: 41-24-1 ATS since 2018.

Bad Green. The Packers are 2-4 ATS this season, they are failing to cover the spread by 8.1 PPG, the worst margin in the NFL.

Will Rodgers Ever Bounce Back?

+ Since 2012, Aaron Rodgers is 14-2 SU, 9-7 ATS vs. teams scoring 17 PPG or fewer.
+ Since 2017, Rodgers is 7-8 SU, 4-11 ATS in EST.
+ Rodgers has won and covered eight straight starts after losing his last game by 14 pts or more (11-4-1 ATS career).
+ Rodgers is 10-2 SU/ATS after scoring 10 pts or fewer in his previous game.
+ Packers are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS. Last time .500 or worse SU/ATS through six games? 2012.
+ Packers lost to the Jets in Week 6. The last 13 teams to lose to New York are 2-11 ATS in their next game dating back to 2019.
+ Matt LeFleur was 21-0 SU as a favorite of six points or more. He’s now 21-2 after Green Bay’s last two losses.
+ Rodgers & LeFleur off a loss: 10-2 SU/ATS (10-1 ATS in regular season)


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Jets at Broncos

Pure Dogs. Jets are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games this season (Falcons).

Ahead of the Pack. Sauce Gardner: Favorite for DROY (+300) | Breece Hall: Favorite for OROY (+280).

Leaving Green Bay. Jets beat the Packers in Lambeau last week. Teams coming off games at Lambeau Field are 89-65-3 ATS (57.8%) in their next game over the last 20 years, second-best previous road spot (Bears).

Falling Behind. 12 teams had double-digit win totals entering the regular season — the Broncos are the only team with 2 wins or fewer.

On The Other Side.The Jets are 1.5 wins away from their win total (5.5).

Road Trip. Robert Salah has coached one game in MST/PST – last year in Denver, a 26-0 loss.

+ Jets haven’t been favored in a MST/PST team since 2015 (at Raiders) and only time since 2012.

Turn Around. Jets are 3-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. Over the previous five years, the Jets were 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) on the road, worst in the NFL (most ATS losses).

Thin Air. Under at Mile High is 40-22-1 (64.5%) since 2015, most profitable home under team in that span (3-0 in 2022).

+ Broncos are 5-1 to the under this year, going under by 12.8 PPG, largest margin to the under in the NFL.

Lack of Prep. Russell Wilson is 2-8 ATS on short rest since 2019, least profitable QB ATS in that spot (61 of 61 QBs).


Texans at Raiders

The Double Bye. There have been 38 games last 20 years between two teams on byes:

+ Road: 21-16-1 ATS | Favorite: 20-17-1 ATS
+ Teams with better SU record: 13-18 ATS

Too Much Time.Derek Carr has lost five consecutive games SU/ATS off a bye week.

+ Last 20 years, Raiders are 5-14 ATS off a bye week.

Bad Omen. Derek Carr is 12-8 SU, 5-15 ATS as a favorite of over a FG, 82nd of 83 QBs since he was drafted in 2015.

Against The Odds. The Texans have won three of their last four games coming off a bye SU (two in a row).

General Mills…

Week 7 is Davis Mills’ 18th career start, all 18 as an underdog (3-12-1 SU, 9-7 ATS). Mills has never closed below a 3.5-point underdog, and 15 of 18 starts came as a TD underdog or more.

+ Mills has played one game on more than a week's rest: 40-0 loss at Bills


Chiefs at 49ers

Nobody Circles The Wagons. Chiefs lost to the Bills last week. Teams after playing Buffalo are 15-23 ATS the following week since 2020, failing to cover 11 of the last 14 games in this spot.

Let's Look at Patrick Mahomes…

+ Mahomes is 4-7 ATS in his last 11 starts.
+ Mahomes road/neutral: 23-14-1 ATS (20-21-1 ATS at home)
+ Mahomes off loss: 12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS. Mahomes is 8-1 SU on the road off a loss (6-0 SU since 2019).
+ Mahomes is an incredible 13-3-1 ATS when he’s not at least a 3.5-point favorite lifetime, winning eight of his last 10.
+ Mahomes: 27-30-1 ATS as above FG favorite, 16-5-1 ATS as FG favorite or less.

Now, Let's Look at Jimmy G…

+ Jimmy G excels against teams above .500: 19-8 SU/ATS. Since his first start in 2017, most profitable QB vs. over .500 opponents.
+ Jimmy G has lost a start four times by double-digits. 49ers are 4-0 SU/ATS in their next game.
+ The 49ers are 37-18 straight up and 31-23-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.
+ Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-6 SU, 16-4 ATS as an underdog in his career. That is the best winning percentage by any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs.
+ With a total of 50 or lower, Jimmy G is 10-3 SU, 12-1 ATS as an underdog.
+ Jimmy G: 3-0 SU/ATS as a home underdog with 49ers.


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Seahawks at Chargers

Same Old Justin Herbert. Herbert has played on short rest four times: LAC has scored 24+ in every game (Herbert is 3-1 ATS).

Second Half Angle. Overall, Herbert is 11-25-2 against the second-half spread in his career, fourth-least profitable QB in the last decade.

+ Herbert 2H ATS at home: 5-13-2 ATS career. Least profitable QB in that spot since drafted.

Short Week.Recently, west coast teams (PST) have struggled at home on short rest, going 7-13-1 ATS since 2019.

Geno Covers.Geno Smith has faced a team coming off short rest twice, he’s 2-0 ATS.

+ Geno career as underdog: 16-10-2 ATS, covering 8 of his last 10 games as a dog.

Signs Point To The Under…

+ The total for Seahawks/Chargers will close at 50 or above. This season, the under is 9-3 in the 12 games with a total of 50 or more – 32-43 (42.7%) since start of last season.
+ In the last nine Seahawks games with a total of 50 or more, the under is 8-1.
+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is:

  • Under 50: 10-3 to over
  • 50 or more: 7-3 to under

Steelers at Dolphins

South Beach Life. The Dolphins have won their last five night games straight up as a favorite.

+ When a team plays at home, followed by a road trip to Florida — where the Florida team is above .500 — the road team is 13-25 SU and 14-22-2 ATS over the last 20 years.

Tough Road.Road teams who average 17 PPG or fewer in night games are 28-68 SU and 49-47 ATS in the last 20 years.

Rah, Rah, Mike…

Mike Tomlin in night games: 46-30 SU, 36-38-3 ATS

  • 9-17 ATS since 2017 at night, the least profitable coach in the NFL (66th of 66 coaches).
  • In night games: 36-11 SU as a favorite, 10-19 SU as an underdog
    41-24 SU w/ Big Ben, 5-6 SU with all others

Fear The Dog. Mike Tomlin is 38-15-1 ATS (72%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward in the regular season.

Pittsburgh's Struggles…

+ In the last 30 years, Steelers are 0-7 SU in night games as underdogs of a TD or more.
+ The Steelers have been favored in just one game this season, a home loss to the Jets.
+ Steelers haven’t been listed as TD or higher underdogs in three straight games since Week 4-6 of 2000.
+ Steelers biggest upsets in night games since 1978:

+10, 1988 at HOU
+8.5, 1992 at KC
+6, 1998 at KC
+6, 2019 at LAC


Bears at Patriots

Just The Opposite. In night games, teams favored by a TD or more with a total below 42 are 42-28-1 ATS over the last 20 years.

Bill's Spot…

+ Since 2019, Patriots are 17-2 SU, 12-6-1 ATS as TD favorites or higher.
+ Belichick on Monday Night Football w/ Patriots: 21-9 SU, 18-11-1 ATS, including 9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS at home on MNF.
+ Belichick in night games: 66-34 SU, 54-42-4 ATS.
+ Belichick at home vs. opponent with 33% win % or fewer last 20 years: 34-5 SU, 23-16 ATS
+ Belichick vs. teams scoring 17 PPG or fewer last 20 years: 56-9 SU, 40-25 ATS

History On The Line.Belichick has currently lost two straight home games at night (first time since 2006). He’s never lost three straight night games at home w/ New England.

Most career wins for head coach:

Don Shula: 347
Bill Belichick: 324
George Halas: 324

Finds A Way. Backup QB starting in New England this week. This is just the ninth time they’ve done that in the last decade (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS).

Can The Bears End The Misery?

+ Bears are 19-36-1 ATS since 2019, least profitable team ATS in NFL.
+ Bears have lost three straight entering MNF. Teams to lose 3+ straight games entering MNF are 21-44 SU, 37-27-1 ATS last 20 years.
+ Bears are 4-24 on moneyline as above a FG underdog since 2019 (2-19 SU as a TD dog or bigger since 2016).
+ Fields is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS at night. The least profitable Bears QB ATS in primetime over the last 20 years.

QBs with no Wins SU in night games last 20 years (min. 4 starts)

  • 0-9 SU, Daniel Jones
  • 0-5 SU, Justin Fields


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What's Next?

Ravens at Buccaneers

  • Tom Brady is 7-8 SU, 2-13 ATS in his last 15 night games, failing to cover the spread by 8.4 PPG.
  • Lamar Jackson vs. NFC: 12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS
  • Lamar as underdog: 6-5 SU, 9-2 ATS, including 10-1 when placed in a 6-point teaser as an underdog
  • The under is 16-5 (76.2%) in the last 21 games on Thursday Night Football.

Bears at Cowboys

  • Justin Fields has played one game on short rest: TNF vs. Commanders (12-7 loss).
  • Bears are at a distinct disadvantage this week. Teams who play back-to-back road games, with the 2nd game on short rest on a Sunday, are 15-26 SU, 17-23-1 ATS in the last 20 years.

Raiders at Saints

  • On Extended Rest (8 days or more) since 2018:

Winston: 0-5 ATS
Dalton: 0-4 ATS

  • Derek Carr is 17-26-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the 2nd-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (109 of 110 QBs).

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