Jaguars vs Raiders Odds & Picks | NFL Week 9
Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.
- The Jaguars are home underdogs today against the Raiders.
- Jacksonville has lost four straight, while the Raiders were shut out last week.
- Dylan Wilkerson previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Jaguars vs Raiders Odds
This week brings us a battle between a pair of two-win AFC teams. The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off of a shutout loss against the Saints, while Jacksonville had to trek back from London, which will now be known to me as “Broncos Country”.
If either team wants to extend their season past 17 games, they'll need to get something going quick. A win in Week 9 could get one of these teams back on track, but who will it be?
Let’s dive into this matchup!
Raiders vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Raiders and Jaguars match up statistically:
Raiders vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
The Raiders offense, despite being shutout last week, has put up impressive numbers. Nearly half (47%) of their drives have ended in a score, a result of the numerous weapons throughout the offense. When tight end Darren Waller is healthy, you can argue this is a top-five roster in terms of offensive talent.
The Raiders offensive line has only allowed a sack on 6% of plays, which puts the unit toward the top of the league in that stat. Las Vegas is also great at getting yards when it needs them most. The Raiders convert nearly 73% (8-of-11) of the time on fourth down.
Raiders -2.5 | Jaguars +2.5
Las Vegas’ defense has done well limiting explosive pass plays this season. The average depth of target the Raiders have allowed has been about six yards, which is among the best in the league.
The Jaguars have yet to show any semblance of offensive competency for an extended period of time. Their season started with four easy games to get the stats padded, but Jacksonville struggled to get momentum going when the schedule toughened up. Jacksonville only scores a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips, and turns the ball over on nearly 15% of its possessions.
The Jaguars defense has put up some great numbers, but it’s hard to imagine that Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Davis Mills and Daniel Jones are going to make any defense look bad. Given that context, I would take the defensive numbers with a grain of salt.
I trust the Raiders offense to find its stride in this game. A shutout is an extreme outlier in the NFL, and you can expect teams to make up for it and progress back to the average. I like the Raiders to do that here, while also stalling out an anemic Jaguars offense.
Here's the betting evidence to back up a Las Vegas bounce back: Since 2015, teams that got shutout have gone 27-10 (73%) against the spread the following week.