Raiders vs. Jets Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: Sam Darnold or Derek Carr?

Raiders at Jets Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: Jets -3
• Over/Under: 46.5
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening.

The Oakland Raiders are squarely in contention for the AFC West crown, but can they overcome some defensive inconsistencies to win on the road in New York? Sam Darnold is coming off of one of his best performances of the season, but is it wise to trust Adam Gase's offense?

Our experts see a potential value play and breakdown all the key angles of this matchup.

Raiders-Jets Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both are somewhat healthy

Last week the Jets had all eight guys who were listed as limited play in their Week 11 game. It’s been the same thing all season: A long injury list, but most end up playing. It’s safe to assume again all eight players who were at least limited will suit up, but linebacker CJ Mosley (groin) and cornerback Darryl Roberts (calf) both haven’t practiced yet, so I’d assume they’re out this week.

Josh Jacobs continues to be limited with his shoulder injury, but that’s been the norm for him since he hurt it against Green Bay. The Raiders' biggest injury of note is offensive lineman David Sharpe (calf). He hasn’t practiced this week and is graded as the second-best run-blocker on their team (per Pro Football Focus). — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Derek Carr vs. Jets Pass Defense

The Jets' second-ranked run defense forces the opposition to attack them through air, which has worked.

New York has allowed big quarterback fantasy performances to Daniel Jones (QB2), Gardner Minshew (QB6) and even Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB6). Now the Jets face the ultra-consistent Derek Carr, who has 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions over the past six games.

New York will need to limit the big play ability of wide receiver Tyrell Williams, who ranks fifth among all receivers with 10.3 yards per target and fourth overall with 2.47 fantasy points per target (per PlayerProfiler). The Jets have struggled against outside receivers, with cornerback Arthur Maulet ranking 73rd in PFF’s conference rating. Rookie slot man Hunter Renfrow has also surged, compiling 15 catches on 18 targets in Oakland’s past three games.

Even against a Jets defense that limits opposing tight end production, Carr will also be able to rely on Darren Waller. Waller ranks second at the position in receptions (56) and receiving yards (666), and first with 324 yards after catch.

With the Jets strong pass-funnel defensive tendencies, Carr is potentially headed for his best fantasy performance of the season.— Mike Randle

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Raiders -2
• Projected Total: 46.5

Heading into the season, I planned to buy low on the Jets as their roster construction and Darnold’s potential Year 2 growth was being overlooked by the market.

Sure enough, they were stuck with some bad luck when Darnold came down with mono heading into Week 2. Their stock plummeted, and with Darnold getting back on track since seeing "ghosts" in the pocket against the Patriots in Week 7, this is shaping up to be the team I was expecting to see this season. The Jets will only improve if/when C.J. Mosley is able to return.

It's worth noting that the Jets have a +1.2 edge in Pythagorean win differential over the Raiders, meaning the public is likely overestimating the Raiders and underestimating the Jets.

Sharps quickly bet this game down from Raiders -4.5 through the key number of -3 to -2.5. Now that this line is back up to +3, it could be time to come in on the Jets.

There’s a real chance the Jets extend their two-win streak to five considering their next three games are vs. Raiders, at Bengals and vs. Dolphins. The window to buy low on the Jets may close after this week. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Chad Millman: Jets +3

This is a good time to use the Pythagorean wins theory. If you’re not familiar, this is an old concept originally created by baseball analytics pioneer Bill James.

The theory was relatively simple: Using the number of runs a team scored and the number of runs it allowed, you could deduce how many wins a team should have. The delta between that number and their actual wins is an indicator of whether or not they exceeded expectations.

Get it?

Also lucky for me, our genius Bet Labs tool — which is a collection of millions of data points from the past 20 years distilled into betting systems (subscribe!), — has a Pythag wins data set. This is what it looks like when you fade teams with winning records but negative point differentials (in Millman terms, teams that the public perceives as being good but I know better).

When I spin the wheel, I get this as an answer for Week 12: The Raiders on the road as three-point favorites against the Jets. The math adds up in multiple ways. The Raiders have scored 225 points and allowed 250 (eee gad).

Do I worry that I'll be betting on a bad team? I sure do. Am I worried that my hard-earned money will be in the hands of Sam Darnold? You betcha!

But am I going to do it? With confidence, not just because my instincts say so, but because the numbers do, too.

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