Rams-Seahawks Prop Bets & Picks for Thursday Night Football
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson (3).
- Let's break down the best Rams vs. Seahawks prop bets and picks for Thursday Night Football.
- See how to bet Will Dissly's receiving yards, Robert Woods' receiving yards and Russell Wilson's completions.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Rams-Seahawks Prop Bets
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
Seahawks TE Will Dissly
THE PICK: Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Dissly has been one of the biggest surprises so far.
He currently ranks seventh in catches, eighth in yards and first in touchdowns among tight ends, despite the fact that he’s played on only 55.6% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. The Seahawks have been so impressed with him that they decided to trade their other TE — Nick Vannett — to the Steelers. Dissly played 79% of snaps with Vannett out of the picture in Week 4, so Dissly has the potential to be a larger part of the offense moving forward.
So why am I on the under?
For starters, Dissly can’t continue to catch passes at this rate. He’s managed 19 catches on just 22 targets, which is ridiculously efficient. To put that into perspective, he had a catch rate of just 57.1% over a four-game sample in 2018.
The Rams also represent a below-average matchup. They ranked ninth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last season, and they rank 13th in that department through the first four weeks of 2019. They’ve been particularly effective against opposing TEs:
- Greg Olsen: 9 targets, 4 catches, 36 yards
- Jared Cook: 7 targets, 2 catches, 25 yards
- Ricky Seals-Jones: 2 targets, 1 catch, 14 yards
- OJ Howard: 3 targets, 3 catches, 33 yards
Even if you factor in production for backup TEs like Cameron Brate and Demetrius Harris, the Rams have still done an excellent job against the position.
This seems like the time to sell-high on Dissly. I like the under up to -135.
Rams WR Robert Woods
THE PICK: Under 66.5 receiving yards (-114)
Woods is coming off a huge game, racking up 164 yards on 13 catches in Week 4. That said, the Rams were playing from behind for virtually the entire game, and Jared Goff threw the ball a whopping 68 times. That’s obviously not going to happen every week.
Woods also gets a big step up in class against the Seahawks. He plays the majority of his snaps on the left side of the offense, which sets up a matchup vs. Shaquill Griffin, who has been one of the best corners in football this season — he ranks ninth at the position per Pro Football Focus — and he’s allowed just seven catches on 13 targets this season. When receivers have managed to catch the ball against him, he’s limited them to an average of 7.4 yards.
Goff benefits from one of the most talented group of pass catchers in the league, and Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp both benefit from superior matchups. It could be a quiet week for Woods.
I’m willing to fade Woods given the matchup, and I’d play the under up to -130.
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson
THE PICK: Under 25.5 completions (-115)
Wilson is one of the best QBs in football, and the only people who don’t seem to realize are the Seahawks’ coaches. They prefer to keep the ball on the ground, ranking just 24th in pass rate this season. That includes Week 3, when they fell behind early and let Wilson attempt 50 passes. Their pass rate drops to just 52% in one score games, which is well behind the league average of 59%.
In addition to keeping the ball on the ground, the Seahawks also like to play slow. They rank 27th in neutral pace.
There’s a nice correlation opportunity here between Wilson’s completions and the Seahawks’ results. He’s averaged 21.7 completions in their three wins compared to 32 in their one loss.
I am personally bearish on the Rams, so I like Seattle’s chances to pull out a win at home. This prop stops looking like a value around -125.