Expert Picks for Rams vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football

Expert Picks for Rams vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football article feature image

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff

  • Our experts reveal their picks for the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Rams and Seahawks.
  • You'll find tonight's spread and over/under below, following by a pick on the total and the best prop bet on the board.

Rams at Seahawks Betting Picks

  • Spread: Seahawks -1.5
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX/NFL Network

The Seahawks host the Rams for an NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football. See how our experts are betting the game, complete with an over/under pick and Sean Koerner’s favorite prop bet.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Mike Randle: Under 49

The Rams’ brutal defensive performance against Tampa Bay was a likely anomaly, having to adjust for short fields with Jared Goff’s four turnovers. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips’ group still ranks sixth-best in opponents’ completion percentage and ninth-best in rushing yards allowed per game.

Seattle’s defense has been even better against the run allowing only 79.5 yards per game, sixth-best in the league. The Seahawks have also improved each week against the pass, allowing only 10.7 yards per pass completion.

Seattle offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will continue to feature a run-first offense that ranks sixth-slowest in the NFL, averaging 29.1 seconds per play. Last week’s game an exception, Thursday night games typically are ugly, lower-scoring battles. In addition, Goff’s 43.4% average fantasy point production in road games also leans me toward the under.

With 58% of the bets and 68% of the money coming on the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), I’m fading the public and betting this Thursday night battle returns to its usual low-scoring form.

Sean Koerner: Jaron Brown Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

My raw projection for Brown here is 17 receiving yards, which is what I’d expect him to average if tonight’s game were to be played 10,000 times. However, when betting on player props, we’re betting on what the median would be. This specific prop would have a median a bit lower and offers some hidden value. A receiving prop this low offers less variance than say one higher than 50 yards.

We should view this prop as essentially being over/under 1.5 receptions for Brown.

Looking at recent game logs for Brown should make us skeptical of taking the under here as his lines over the past two games have been 3/30 and 3/50. But there’s underlying data we can use to take a bit of a leap of faith bet on the under here.

Despite playing 75% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, Brown failed to record a single catch, let alone receive a single target. He was certainly due for some positive regression there. However, we’ve seen the return of David Moore as the Seahawks have eased him in following a shoulder injury that knocked him out the first couple games. Moore and Brown were battling to be the team’s Nos. 2 and 3 WRs this season. With Moore’s snap rate jumping to a season-high 40% as Brown’s dropped to a season-low 56%, we need to view this situation as in flux.

This downward trend for Brown in terms of snap percentage and his low target rate are what give this line more value on the under than meets the eye.

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