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Ravens vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks, Prediction | Thursday Night Football

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Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.

  • The Buccaneers are home favorites on Thursday Night Football against the Ravens.
  • Tampa Bay has scored more than 21 points just once this season.
  • Sean Koerner breaks down the matchup and lays out how he's looking to bet the game below.

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds

Thursday, Oct. 27
8:15 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Ravens Odds +2.5
Buccaneers Odds -2.5
Moneyline +110 / -130
Over/Under 46
Odds via BetMGM.

So far this season, the Buccaneers have looked like a shell of themselves on offense. This Tom Brady-led unit has scored 20 or more points just three times this season, and two of those games saw it put up 20 and 21.

Now, the world will be focused on Brady in primetime against an exciting young QB in Lamar Jackson. Can Brady keep beating Father Time, or is this who the Bucs are this season?

Let’s tap into the matchup.

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Buccaneers match up statistically:

Ravens vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 5 5
Pass DVOA 5 6
Rush DVOA 7 11
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 19 12
Pass DVOA 10 8
Rush DVOA 31 23

When the Ravens Have the Ball

The Ravens have a ton of key players on offense who are listed as questionable heading into Thursday night. Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Ronnie Stanley should all be able to suit up, but it’s worth waiting to see if any of them are held out.

Andrews is clearly less than 100%, as he wasn’t able to practice this week due to his knee injury and failed to catch a pass in Week 7 for only the second time in his career.

Considering Bucs head coach Todd Bowles will likely blitz Lamar Jackson at a high rate and Jackson’s favorite target (targets Andrews 38% when blitzed vs. 28% when not blitzed) will be playing at less than 100%, we could see the mobile QB struggle on primetime. He might not be able to take advantage of a Bucs secondary that will be missing Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Antoine Winfield.

There’s a chance that newly acquired DeSean Jackson will be active for the first time this season and make a splash play or two in this game. It’ll be worth seeing if he’s activated for tonight’s game.

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

The Bucs are coming off back-to-back embarrassing losses to the Steelers and Panthers. Tom Brady will be extremely motivated to have a bounce back performance in front of a national audience Thursday night.

After LG Ali Marpet’s retirement and C Ryan Jensen’s potential season-ending knee injury, I feared the offensive line could be an issue for Brady in 2022 since he typically struggles with interior pressure. Sure enough, it seems like every week Brady is visibly frustrated by his offensive line and he isn’t trusting his protection.

The pressure has forced Brady to get rid of the ball at the quickest rate (2.43 seconds according to NextGenStats), and his average intended air yards have dropped from 8.0 to 7.4 this season. He may want to test a Ravens secondary that has allowed the second-highest EPA per play on pass attempts 20+ yards downfield.

The Bucs will be without Russell Gage and Cameron Brate, and Julio Jones was upgraded to questionable. It would be huge for the Bucs offense if Jones is able to return this week. Tampa Bay will also be without LG Luke Goedeke, but the second-round rookie has struggled this season. His replacement, Nick Leverett, might actually be an upgrade in the short term.


Bet Thursday Night Football at FanDuel
Ravens +1.5 | Buccaneers -1.5


Betting Picks

I’m in line with the spread and total tonight.

I would lean towards the under in the first half at 22.5, simply because the Ravens offense is pretty banged up and may not be equipped right now to take advantage of a banged up Bucs secondary.

On the flip side, the Bucs may try to get their running game going here considering the Ravens rank eighth in DVOA against the pass but rank 23rd against the run. If that doesn’t work, the Bucs will likely start to air it out and test the Ravens secondary downfield.

Plus, the Bucs offense has yet to score a TD in the first quarter this year.

Lean: 1H Under 22.5

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