Ravens vs Jaguars Odds & Pick: Strong Run Defenses Make Total the Bet
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.
Jaguars vs Ravens Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +166 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -198 |
The Jaguars, fresh off their bye, will host the Ravens, who have been playing down to their competition recently. Last week, the Panthers gave them all they could handle and it took until late into the fourth quarter for Baltimore to pull away, ultimately coming away with the 13-3 win.
The last time we saw the Jaguars, they were getting thoroughly embarrassed by the Chiefs in Kansas City, although the final score (27-17) was not really indicative of how the game went. This team has been Jekyll and Hyde all season, having posted strong wins against the Chargers, Colts and Raiders, but then losing to the hapless Texans and Broncos. The jury is still very much out on whether Trevor Lawrence is a good NFL quarterback.
Let's get into this matchup, however.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jaguars and Ravens match up statistically:
Jaguars vs. Ravens DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 5 | 26 | |
| Pass DVOA | 8 | 31 | |
| Rush DVOA | 1 | 15 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 13 | 11 | |
| Pass DVOA | 11 | 8 | |
| Rush DVOA | 17 | 14 | |
Mark Andrews made his return to the lineup last week against the Panthers, but failed to provide his usual dominant production, catching just six passes for 63 yards. He should be much more involved this week, though I am beginning to worry about this Ravens offense.
Baltimore has scored 20 points or fewer points in four of its past six games. Outside of Andrews, the Ravens are relying heavily on NFL journeyman Kenyan Drake at running back, and castoff Demarcus Robinson at wide receiver. It's no wonder Lamar Jackson has only thrown for more than 300 yards once this season.
Ravens -3.5 | Jaguars +3.5
Devin Duvernay, who is the de facto WR1 now that Rashod Bateman is out for the season, has a combined two catches for eight yards across his past two games. He's going to have to start playing better if the Ravens want to make a Super Bowl push. The good news for this week is that the Jaguars are quite vulnerable against opposing wideouts, having allowed 13 touchdowns to the position this season, tied for second most in the league. They also sit 31st in pass defense DVOA.
As for the Jags, they continue to get great production from their big offseason signing, Christian Kirk. The wideout ranks 11th in the NFL in receptions and 14th in receiving yards among qualified wideouts. He should be busy again here as I expect the Ravens to limit Travis Etienne Jr. on the ground. The Ravens have allowed fewer than 48 rushing yards in each of their past three games and rank seventh in yards per carry allowed.
Despite the Ravens clear shortcomings on offense, they still have Jackson and are one of the most well coached teams in the league. Gus Edwards did get two full practices in to end the week and looks to be on track to play this week, which would help immensely.
Betting Picks
This matchup is a bit tricky, as both defenses are best at defending the opposing team's biggest strength, the running game. The Jaguars are quite susceptible to passing game production, but Baltimore has had virtually no success in that department since Bateman went down. Ultimately, the Jaguars are the healthier team, and are playing at home coming off a bye.
My initial lean was to side with the home 'dog, but being that both teams could have trouble moving the ball on the ground, it could lead to a bit of a back-and-forth affair with more pass attempts than anticipated. Andrews being healthy makes a massive difference for Baltimore and he should be back to wreaking havoc this week.
This very much has the feel of a 24-21 type game, so give me the over in this spot.
Pick: Over 43.5 | Bet to 44 |
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