Saints vs. Bears Odds & Picks: Expect a Low-Scoring Affair?

Saints at Bears Odds & Picks

• Odds: Bears -3
• Over/Under: 38
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

You want a popular road underdog? We've got a popular road underdog.

At the time of writing, the Saints are getting 68% of the betting tickets as 3- or 3.5-point underdogs, depending on the book. That makes New Orleans the fourth-most popular bet of the week (see real-time data here).

Below our experts will preview this NFC matchup in full, covering the biggest mismatches to know and a bet on the over/under offering value.

Saints-Bears Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bears

The Bears should be all systems go coming off their bye week. Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) has practiced in full all week, so it’s likely he’ll take over the starting job once again. 

The Saints, meanwhile, could potentially be in trouble: Alvin Kamara (ankle) and Jared Cook (ankle) haven’t practiced all week. The signing of Zach Zenner earlier in the week could be a good indication of Kamara’s health. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Saints Defensive Line vs. Bears Offensive Line

Drew Brees is pretty good, and a fully healthy Alvin Kamara is nice to have, but this matchup may not come down to the Saints offense if the Bears O-line doesn’t get it together.

We know the Bears defense will show up more often than not, but Chicago has already lost two games in which it has held the opposition to 16 points or fewer. While quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) is a convenient scapegoat, the issues on offense start with a line that has failed to give Trubisky much time to work with, ranking 23rd in Pass Blocking Efficiency, per Pro Football Focus.

Not only that, but it has also been so bad in run blocking that the Bears' backs are under the Mendoza line at 2.99 yards per carry. The team’s 30% rushing Success Rate on third/fourth down and 2 or less ranks second-worst in the league.

Normally, a team coming off a bye will shore up these kinds of things, but the Bears had to place starting guard and former Pro Bowler Kyle Long (hip) on injured reserve. This will cause a ripple effect whereby they’ll be forced to use new starting configurations, and the lack of experience as a unit will likely lead to more struggles against a deep Saints front led by Cameron Jordan and Marcus Daventport, each of whom rank among the top eight edge rushers in total pressures, per PFF.

Going back to his Minnesota days, Teddy Bridgewater is now 27-7 against the spread as a starting quarterback, thanks in large part to being complemented by strong Mike Zimmer defenses. Early returns in New Orleans are reminscient, as he’s 4-0 behind a defensive allowing just 16.8 points per game in his starts. According to our Bet Labs data, Sean Payton’s all-time mark as a road underdog is 30-21-2, so don’t be surprised if his team finds a way to get it done ugly in the Windy City. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Bears -3
• Projected Total: 39.5

The Saints are 4-0 in the four starts Bridgewater has filled in for the injured Brees. All four of those wins were one-score games, which puts their one-score record at 5-0. By definition, the public is going to be overrating them right now.

We’re still unsure as to who will be the starting QB for the Bears this week. They’re cautiously optimistic that Trubisky will return from his shoulder injury, but they appear to be splitting first-team reps with Chase Daniel just in case. It’s a pretty big indictment against a starting QB when they’re a true game-time decision and all sportsbooks are taking action just as if it’s any other game.

As Justin mentioned, Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury, and with a Week 9 bye looming, the Saints could very well limit him again or rule him out in an attempt to get him 100% healthy.

Due to all of these factors, it appears Bears -3 is the play here. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

John Ewing: Over 38

At the time of writing, 66% of tickets are on the Saints-Bears under 38. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks and the defenses have been solid to start the season, as the Bears are allowing 13.8 ppg (third) and the Saints are giving up 20.3 ppg (11th).

The public is expecting a low-scoring affair but there are a few reasons to think this game can go over the total.

For starters, history says the over is a smart play. Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet the over in low-total non-division games that don't feature windy weather.

Following this strategy, over bettors have cashed 55% of their tickets returning a profit of $9,432 for a $100 gambler.

It is not just history that points toward the over: Our Bets Labs sims have this total at 45.6 points, which makes this one of the best over bets in Week 7.