Super Bowl Odds: Against the Spread Pick for Super Bowl 57

Super Bowl Odds: Against the Spread Pick for Super Bowl 57 article feature image

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images. Pictured: DeVonta Smith, one of our best bets for Super Bowl MVP with the Eagles our against the spread pick given the latest Super Bowl odds.

This year's Super Bowl odds for Chiefs vs Eagles have more or less held steady after an initial flurry of movement.

As of this writing, the spread for Sunday's Super Bowl 57 is Eagles -1.5 at most books, and the total is hovering around 50.5 or 51.

So that's where we stand with the Super Bowl odds at the moment. But chances are, you're here for more than that — our against the spread pick for Super Bowl 57 and our other best bets.

Since the start of the postseason, when I began writing about my favorite picks against the spread for every NFL playoff game, I am 7-5 with a 58% win rate.

My picks come directly from my commentary discussed on “The Favorites” sports betting podcast every week. As such, this week, with Brandon Anderson invited as a guest on the podcast, I will be breaking down both Brandon and my picks. Let's dive in.

Super Bowl Odds: Against the Spread Pick for Super Bowl LVII

My favorite bet on the Super Bowl, as has been discussed heavily throughout the week, is the Eagles against the spread.

Right now, the Eagles are favored by 1.5 points. I will continue to take this bet as long as the Eagles are not favored by three or more. 

Pick: Eagles to Cover Against the Spread (-1.5)

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Look, my methodology here is very simple. When I build a statistical model to project an edge on an NFL game, I start with a team’s offensive and defensive lines.

Brandon Anderson, my partner on the podcast whose picks we will discuss shortly, has been bullish on the Eagles’ offensive line since before the season started. He ranked it as the number one offensive line in the NFL in the preseason.

The reality, however, is that as dominant as the Eagles are in the trenches offensively, the team’s defensive line is even scarier. The Eagles have an 11.5% sack rate on pass plays; that is the highest sack rate on pass plays in NFL history. 

In fact, the Eagles' sack rate on pass plays is so high that the difference between the Eagles and the team with the second-best sack rate is greater than the difference between the second-best team and the 29th-ranked team.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, ranked 16th in pass protection this season and have only played against two teams all year that rank within the top eight in total pressures. 

As for Brandon? He was interested in taking the Eagles 1H ML/FT ML parlay at +160 as your best bet, beyond my best bet on the Eagles against the spread.

As Brandon cites, the Eagles led at halftime in 14 of their 16 wins this season. Additionally, Brandon feels that the Eagles will be in trouble if the Chiefs lead at halftime – or are tied – and Jalen Hurts must outduel Patrick Mahomes in the second half. Thus, he likes the extra 60% payout by parlaying the Eagles ML with Eagles halftime ML.

I like this bet and plan to sprinkle it. Realistically, though, as the degenerate I am, I plan to hammer both bets separately.

Pick: Eagles 1H ML/Eagles Full Game ML

Lastly, let's talk Super Bowl MVP.

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I anticipate Patrick Mahomes will win the Super Bowl MVP award. I think the odds of the QB winning this award are far lower, though, if the Eagles win, for a number of reasons further broken down in our Super Bowl prop bets story.

As such, Brandon would tell you to take Devonta Smith +3100 as the Super Bowl MVP. Prior to the conference championship, Smith was averaging 6.5 receptions for 93 yards in addition to five touchdown receptions over his previous seven games, having closed the gap on AJ Brown as the Eagles’ leading receiver. 

Pick: DeVonta Smith to Win Super Bowl MVP

And here's the key: Brandon is fascinated by Smith, as opposed to Brown, because Smith typically lines up on the right side of the field, whereas Brown lines up on the left. The Chiefs have ranked 26th in DVOA when defending the right side of the field compared to sixth in DVOA on the left side. 

As someone with a big position on the game’s over up to 51.5 points, I am a fan of Brandon’s prop. 

If you would like to read some more of my prop ideas, please read Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon and my top Super Bowl prop bets here.

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