Projected Super Bowl Odds: Spreads, Lines & Over/Unders for Each Possible Matchup

Credit:

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyreek Hill, Richard Sherman

Jan 16, 2020, 01:00 PM EST

The biggest game of the year is only weeks away.

Sportsbooks have already rolled out lookahead lines for Super Bowl 54, but how sharp are those odds?

I’ve used my NFL power ratings to project spreads and over/unders for each of the potential matchups. Let’s run through my numbers then compare them to the market.


Koerner’s Projected Super Bowl Betting Odds

If you’re interested in betting Super Bowl spreads early, FanDuel has odds up for bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana and West Virginia.

Chiefs vs. 49ers

  • Spread: Chiefs -1
  • Over/Under: 49.5

Titans vs. 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 44

Chiefs vs. Packers

  • Spread: Chiefs -5.5
  • Over/Under: 51.5

Titans vs. Packers

  • Spread: PK
  • Over/Under: 44

The spreads for both potential matchups involving the Titans stand out: My projections are 1-1.5 points lower than FanDuel’s lookahead lines (in the Titans’ favor).

I would say that’s likely due to the Titans being built to compete in close games and/or with the lead. In either scenario, they would be able to feed Derrick Henry and keep the game close — a stark contrast of what we could see this weekend against the Chiefs.

I’m in-line with the market and have the Titans at +7.5 for the AFC Championship Game as the Chiefs offense (at home) could force the Titans out of their comfort zone. But the 49ers and Packers offenses would be less likely to do that at a neutral site, hence the potential value on the Titans.

Comparing My Projections to Lookahead Lines

Here’s a side-by-side comparison of my projected spreads and FanDuel’s lookahead lines (as of Thursday) for the four potential matchups.

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