Super Bowl Props, Live Bets & More Ways To Bet Buccaneers vs. Chiefs

Senior NFL betting analyst Chris Raybon breaks down his five prop bets for Super Bowl 55 as well as his live betting strategy. He has a 455-348-19 (56.7%) all-time record on picks he's tracked in our app, where you can follow him to get alerts on his bets.

Spread Pick: Chiefs Live Under -3

I invested in Bucs +3.5 when lines first opened, but have since hedged out with Chiefs at -3. Since completing my deep dive, I tweaked my projections from Chiefs -2.5 to -3 and don’t see much value at maintaining my Bucs +3.5 position — there are simply more paths for the Chiefs to victory, even if things go wrong, while the Bucs would have to play a perfect game.

After the Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers against the Saints in the Divisional Round then scored 14 more points off Packers turnovers (while getting a freebie Scotty Miller touchdown at the end of the first half), I’m not sure that the Bucs have enough perfect game in them.

The Chiefs, however, have been prone to slow starts, so I will be looking to invest in the live at better than -3, which we could get if the Bucs are threatening a touchdown early or take an early lead.

Patrick Mahomes Over 41.5 Pass Attempts (+105)

Mahomes has attempted 42 or more passes in 9-of-17 games, including a season-high 49 against the Bucs. The Chiefs called a pass on 76% of their plays in the first matchup and there is no reason for them to do anything differently this time around against Tampa Bay’s No. 1 run defense.

• Best line as of late Saturday: Over 41.5 (+105) at BetMGM
• Limit: Over 42.5 (+105)

Darrel Williams Under 45.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-140)

Entering the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship, the Chiefs were up 31-15 and Williams had four touches for 22 yards. He then proceeded to rattle off 10 touches for 39 yards in extended garbage time while Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t even see a touch.

The Chiefs had most of their rushing success on the edge in the first matchup against the Buccaneers, which suits the more explosive Edwards-Helaire more than Williams, whose forte is running downhill — between-the-tackles — so in addition to a repeat of extended garbage time being unlikely, I have doubts that Williams would even see the garbage time carries in a similar situation.

In the first matchup against the Bucs, the Chiefs got up 17-0, and Edwards-Helaire out-touched Le’Veon Bell and Williams combined, 12-7. Even on 12 touches, Edwards-Helaire mustered only 39 yards, and I don’t expect Williams to out-touch him or beat that mark.

• Best line as of late Saturday: Under 45.5 (-140) at BetMGM
• Limit: Under 40.5 (-115)

Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions (-135)

In three postseason games, Fournette has hauled in 4, 5 and 5 receptions on 79%, 68% and 65% of routes run per dropback. The Chiefs allowed the third-most receptions per game to running backs during the regular season (5.8) and have the ability to funnel the ball away from wide receivers and make Brady look underneath.

• Best line as of late Saturday: Over 3.5 (-135) at BetMGM
• Limit: Over 4 (-115)

Antonio Brown Longest Reception Under 18.5 yards (+100)

Brown has been held to a long of 16 or below in 6-of-10 games this season, and I expect that to continue against a Chiefs defense that has finished top two in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers in each of Steve Spagnuolo’s two years with the team. Kansas City limited Brown to 2 catches for 11 yards on three targets in the first matchup, but even if he catches a few more than two passes, a gain of 19 or more would have been unlikely, as his average depth of target was 4.7 in that game and 8.9 this season.

• Best line as of late Saturday: Under 18.5 yards (+100) at BetMGM
• Limit: Under 16.5 (-115)

Chiefs Over 22.5 First Downs (-143)

The Chiefs have gained 23 or more first downs in 14-of-17 Mahomes starts this season, and the Bucs have allowed 23 or more in six of their last eight. The Bucs can limit lesser offensive teams to paltry first-down totals due to their elite run defense, but that doesn’t work against an efficient pass offense like the Chefs. The Chiefs gained 26 first downs against the Bucs in the first matchup despite picking up only five on the ground.

• Best line as of late Saturday: Over 22.5 (-143) at DraftKings
• Limit: Over 22.5 (-200)