Titans vs Colts Odds, Picks, Prediction for Week 4

Titans vs Colts Odds, Picks, Prediction for Week 4 article feature image

Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Ryan.

  • The Colts are home favorites today against the Titans.
  • Tennessee finally won its first game last week, while the Colts upset Kansas City.
  • Dylan Wilkerson previews the game and makes his betting pick below.

Titans vs. Colts Odds

Sunday, Sept. 29
1 p.m. ET
Titans Odds
-115o / -105u
Colts Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

As Week 4 is upon us, I can’t help but feel like that I, as well as all other football bettors, have hit our stride.

It is all shaking out. The good teams are separating themselves from the bad, the bad teams have QBs who can’t complete more than 10 passes a game (I'm looking at you, Justin Fields), and the average teams kick off at 1 p.m. ET in an AFC South matchup.

That is exactly what we have here. Both of these teams have underperformed with regards to preseason expectations, but they've somehow found themselves in the mix in the mediocre AFC South. 

FanDuel Boost: Titans to Win & Jaguars to Cover +7.5

Is it still early? Sure, but these teams know that in order to compete in the South, they have to win the divisional matchups early. I mean, do we think the Jags' run can last all season?

The tale of these two teams are vastly different. While one makes its living on offense, the other focuses on lockdown defense and opponents missing field goals.

Let’s take a look at how this afternoon matchup shakes out.

Titans vs. Colts Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Colts match up statistically:

Titans vs. Colts DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1713
Pass DVOA827
Rush DVOA272
Overall DVOA3226
Pass DVOA3126
Rush DVOA2420
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The matchup has made for some instant classics in the past. Tennessee has displayed dominance over Indy, going 4-1 against the Colts in the last five matchups, including an overtime win the last time these two teams met. Will the tide start to shift the Colts' way?

It is hard to tell. Indianapolis has issues with taking sacks and giving up fumbles. The Colts have given up 88 yards to sacks this season, the third most in the NFL. In addition to this, they've fumbled nine times on designed rush plays. It is clear that the Colts should have trouble with every type of play call offensively.

On the flip side, the Colts have not played a defense as bad as what the Titans have. You can choose almost any defensive stat, and Tennessee is going to be in the bottom 10. Here are just a few examples: The Titans have allowed eight passing TDs (most in NFL) 524 air yards (third most in NFL) and 6.4 yards per play (third most in NFL). 

It is hard to identify a side with a clear edge. I'm partial to divisional 'dogs on the road, but I can not find enough evidence to take the Titans with their abysmal defense. Conversely, the Colts could commit some offensive turnovers that set them up for disaster later on in the game. 

The Titans defense is as porous as a slice of Swiss cheese, but I cannot get behind taking an over given this stalling Colts offense. No matter how hard they try, they can not get that ball moving. 

Betting Picks

But they try, and that’s what matters.

Matt Ryan has thrown the ball 117 times in the first three weeks of the season for an average of 39 pass attempts a game. The Colts can toss the pigskin around and even if the result of the drive is not what they want, they can at least say they tried.

With Frank Reich on the hot seat,  he knows that to beat the Titans the Colts will have to throw the ball quickly and often.

Let’s just hope Ryan takes his Ibuprofen before the game.

Bet Now at FanDuel: Matt Ryan Over 31.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 35.5

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