Three NHL Prop Bets for Friday: Karlsson Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?

Tonight’s NHL slate features six games, and that is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 9:00, and 10:30 p.m. ET. 

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Lightning D Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots on goal

7:00 p.m. ET

We discussed the Lightning today on Inside the Lab, so attacking an over in a pristine matchup against the Rangers shouldn’t be a huge surprise. New York provides one of the most favorable matchups in the entire league for shots on goal props (99th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and Hedman’s shooting ability is undervalued today. Over the past month, he is averaging 2.46 shots per game but has reached three or more shots seven times in his last 12 games. In a plus matchup, he's likely to do better than his monthly average.

Avalanche G Semyon Varlamov over 31.0 total saves

9:00 p.m. ET

Over their past ten games, the Blackhawks have caused opposing goaltenders to accrue 32 or more saves five times (36 or more four times), so they definitely provide an opportunity for over betters with opposing goaltenders. Colorado happens to have allowed the fourth-most Corsi on the slate over the past month. Varlamov’s 38.36 Save Prediction in our Models trails only that of Ondrej Pavelec (39.21). Chicago also has the second-lowest Expected Goals For, indicating that Varlamov is likely to stop a high percentage of an already voluminous projected workload.

Golden Knights C William Karlsson under 2.5 shots on goal 

10:30 p.m. ET

Over the past year Karlsson has notably averaged 2.19 shots per game (79th percentile), but of all the players listed he has the fifth-lowest shot volume over the past month, averaging 2.29 shots per game (80th percentile). Karlsson has registered three or more shots in only six of his past 15 games, and the matchup against St. Louis is considerably below average. As a team, the Golden Knights own our forth-lowest Expected Corsi For today and are facing a Blues squad that has allowed the third-fewest shot attempts over the past month of any team on the slate.

Pictured above: William Karlsson
Photo credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports